Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
537 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

A severe weather event is expected to occur over the next several
hours across the forecast area. The main hazards is damaging winds
and tornadoes. Pressure gradient winds have gusted between 40 to 50
mph this morning and this will continue until the line of storms
moves through later this evening. The line of storms has already
entered NW AL and will continue to move northeastward across the area
this afternoon and evening. Estimated time of arrival into North
Central AL by 4pm and Northeast AL by 6pm. The line should exit the
region by 9pm.

Looking at the parameter space, low level shear is extremely high
with 0-1 km shear between 40 to 50 knots and SRH values over 500
m2/s2. However, CAPE is pretty meager at best with forecast soundings
indicating 300 to 500 J/kg. 18z soundings from the University of
Alabama Huntsville show a bit of a capping inversion between
700-800mb. Strong WAA has continued to warm SFC temps despite thick
overcast skies. Recent satellite imagery has shown some small pockets
of clearing across NW AL and within them, temperatures have risen a
few degrees quite quickly. This warming should be enough to overcome
the cap and allow for surface based convection. There is also some
concern about how far east the line continues with a lower confidence
of severe across portions of northeastern AL.

The cold front moves quite quickly across the area, but given high
PWs areas should see between 1-1.5 inches of rainfall by this
evening. Gradient winds subside behind the front as they veer to the
northwest.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

The cold front that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms on
Thursday will have pushed off to the east by Friday. The post frontal
airmass is much cooler and drier and combined with strong CAA out of
the north, Friday will be quite chilly. Temperatures top out in the
lower 40s, a 30 degree 24 hour temperature difference. Dry weather is
expected to continue through the weekend with highs warming up into
the 50s on Saturday and back into the 60s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

A fairly active pattern is forecast for the start of the next
workweek. Several shortwaves are expected to traverse the southern
stream upper level jet. Keep the umbrella handy Monday through
Wednesday as rain and perhaps some thunderstorms could impact the
area. Biggest concern with these systems next week is a concern for
flooding. Temperatures will be on the mild side with afternoon highs
in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

A line of convection from Lynchburg to just east of KHSV to NW of
Cullman, with very heavy rains and sporatic lightning strikes should
continue eastward across the area over the next few hours. The main
cold front was moving in from west/middle TN and northern MS. This
boundary sweeping eastward across the area should end showers this
evening. Strong at times SW-W winds ranging from 20-30kt over NE AL
to 10-20kt over NW AL will become W-NW early this evening, then NW
as the front passes across the area. Post frontal MVFR CIGs
(2500-3000kft AGL) should persist into Fri morning. Those clouds
should fade from NW-SE in the early afternoon as drier air returns
to the region.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM...GH
LONG TERM...GH
AVIATION...RSB

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
147 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-181100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
147 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon through Tonight...

Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and early
evening. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds. A
few tornadoes will also be possible, especially to the west of
Interstate 65.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for areas along and west of the
Interstate 65 corridor until 8 PM CST.

Gradient winds up to 20-30 mph are forecast today, with gusts of
40-50 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through Midnight CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
possible this afternoon and evening.

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