Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1207 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 932 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Active weather will continue today as an upper low continues to
stall around SE MO. A warm front has shifted north through the
forecast area this morning, and moisture is expected to increase
into the afternoon. Southwest flow will persist aloft with several
weak disturbances moving across the upper trough axis, resulting
in multiple rounds of showers and storms today. With PWAT values
rising to 2" or just above, flash flooding will once again be a
concern as wind flow is largely unidirectional, setting the stage
for training storms. This is even more likely today after some
areas received 3-5" of rain yesterday and last night. Minor
tweaks to PoPs were made to account for current radar trends, but
otherwise previous forecast remains on track. Highs today will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, a little below normal for early
September.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Little change in the overall pattern is expected tonight and into
the Labor Day holiday, with the front remaining in the area while
the upper trough axis remains anchored to the west. This will
translate into sct/num showers/tstms continuing into the first
half of next week, mainly during the daytime hrs, aided by an
increase in buoyant energy coupled with a persistent Gulf fetch.
Even with the frontal boundary diminishing in the Tue/Wed time
frame, embedded disturbances rotating NE along the eastern fringe
of the upper trough pattern will work to enhance some of this
convection/brief heavy rainfall. Localized/minor flooding concerns
will continue into mid week, as total rainfall amounts approach
2-3 inches, coupled with locally higher amounts. Highs will be in
the lower/mid 80s, while overnight lows trend mainly into the
upper 60s/near 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

The unsettled wx pattern will continue thru the end of the work
week and into the first half of the weekend, as the upper trough
axis drifts eastward into the central Gulf states. There is some
uncertainty as to the location of the axis of heavier rainfall
going past Wed. In any case, good synoptic lift coupled with a
persistent Gulf moisture fetch will maintain sct/num showers/tstms
into Sat, mainly during the afternoon hrs. Again, localized/minor
flooding issues will be the biggest threat with some of this
convective activity/brief heavy rainfall. An added 1-2 inches of
rainfall is possible thru the latter half of the forecast period.
Afternoon highs are also expected to remain in the lower/mid 80s,
while early morning lows fall predom into the upper 60s/near 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Showers and storms will begin to impact the terminals this
afternoon, and reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible
during heavier downpours. Have handled this with TEMPO groups at
both terminals for reductions to MVFR cigs and vsbys, but
amendments may be needed at HSV if a heavier storm moves over the
terminal. Lightning and gusty winds could accompany this activity,
and gusts up to 30kts will be possible. MVFR to IFR stratus is
expected to develop during the morning hours on Monday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
435 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-051100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
435 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Alabama,
northeast Alabama, northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with some of these storms and may
translate into some instances of localized flash flooding, especially
in low lying or flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue each day Monday
through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible with some
of these storms and again may result in some episodes of localized
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1027 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

ALZ008>010-041615-
Marshall AL-DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-
1027 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Marshall, south central Jackson and west central DeKalb Counties
through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1026 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Geraldine, or 10 miles northeast of Guntersville,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Rainsville, Fyffe, Powell, Geraldine, Section, Dutton,
Langston, Lakeview and Hopewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8614 3444 8628 3468 8597 3449 8581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 236DEG 12KT 3442 8613

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1126 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N GUNTERSVILLE        34.41N 86.28W
09/04/2022                   MARSHALL           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER RISING OVER A CREEK BANK AND AN
            ESTIMATED 6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE
            ROAD ON WILLOW LAKE CIRCLE. RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1131 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W GUNTERSVILLE        34.36N 86.36W
09/04/2022  M8.00 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   PUBLIC

            OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED WEST OF
            GUNTERSVILLE SINCE 7AM.

&&

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