Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1057 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

A line of showers and thunderstorms developed along the leading edge
of the elevated mixed layer this evening, moving through Muscle
Shoals earlier. You could clearly see the drop off in elevated
instability as you go eastward when the thunderstorms quickly died
down around Lawrence and Limestone counties. We did just issue a
severe thunderstorm watch for overnight until 3 AM for our western-
most three counties of Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin (AL) as
that is the area with the greatest elevated instability. This may
allow for the severe convection to our northwest to stay strong
enough for a threat for damaging winds or hail in NW Alabama before
quickly weakening as it continues east. Primary concern overnight
for our entire area will mainly be heavy rainfall, but can't rule out
some small hail elsewhere outside of NW Alabama.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will push south of the area by midday,
leaving partly cloudy skies and northerly flow in their wake.
Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant on Saturday, with highs in
the lower to mid 70s. Another shortwave will move eastward across the
region Saturday night, which may bring isolated to scattered showers
across the TN Valley. Otherwise, a mild night is expected, as
overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

A trough will eject from the Rockies and move through the Plains on
Sunday morning. This trough will quickly move eastward, with a
trailing cold front pushing east of the Mississippi River by the late
afternoon hours. Surface flow will veer to the south, with moisture
increasing through the day. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage as the cold front nears the area, with the better chances
during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect widespread showers,
with isolated thunderstorms overnight Sunday, lending an additional
one inch of rain across the area. While no severe weather is
expected with this activity, flooding may become a concern especially
if we realize higher rainfall amounts tonight than we are currently
forecasting. The cold front will likely push east of the area around
daybreak on Monday, with rainfall tapering off from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

During the start of the extended period, a cold front should continue
moving in a west to east manner across the Tennessee Valley. An area
of low pressure along the front should also move across the forecast
area. Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms look possible in the
morning. The showers will end from west to east during the course of
the late morning and afternoon as the front pushes further to the
east. An eastward movement of the front and precipitation shield
should minimize a ducting potential over the area; aka strong
easterly component winds that sometimes occur as a storm system moves
across a region. Cool high pressure situated over the Northern
Plains will build to the southeast, and bring generally dry weather
for much of the upcoming new workweek. High temperatures on Monday
should warm into the upper 60s with NW winds of 5-15 mph.

Clear skies should return for the first half of the week. This and
modest cold air advection and lighter winds should help low temps
tumble into the lower 40s. An upper 30s temperature is possible in
the normal cooler spots of southern middle Tennessee and far northern
Alabama. Highs on Tuesday will warm only into the low/mid 60s, and
lows Tue night in the lower 40s. Normal high/low temps for reference
by next Tue are 76/52. A cooler than average spell will continue in
the mid week with highs rising into the low/mid 70s.

The high should be moving off of the east coast on Wednesday,
producing a more southerly wind. High temps accordingly should warm
into the mid 70s on Wed, and mid/upper 70s Thursday. With a
progressive somewhat zonal flow continuing during the period, another
system moving eastward along the United States/Canada border will
bring another cold front near the area on Thursday. Have kept lower
end, light shower chances for our more western areas per output from
the wetter blends. Moderation in temperatures continues to close out
the work week, with highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are approaching from the west and will be
moving in over the next few hours. These will spread eastward
impacting all the terminals overnight with the potential for some
small hail in stronger storms. With the storms moving in, expect
conditions to deteriorate to MVFR by 06-09Z and likely IFR at MSL
later Saturday morning. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the day on Saturday, particularly ramping back
up Saturday evening. Primarily MVFR conditions should hold through
the day, with some brief improvement to VFR possible after 20Z,
though that is looking less likely as low clouds move back in with
the increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 133 from 10 PM this evening through 3
AM Saturday for Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL.
TN...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...McCoy
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...McCoy

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

ALZ001-160600-
Lauderdale AL-
1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Lauderdale County through 100 AM CDT...

At 1216 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Underwood-Petersville, or 11 miles north of Florence, moving east at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Lexington, St. Florian, Underwood-Petersville, Green Hill,
Zip City, Threet and Kingtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8731 3492 8728 3484 8792 3501 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 256DEG 43KT 3495 8773

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMP

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