Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
745 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 745 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Sporadic areas of heavy rainfall/tstms continue to affect much of srn
mid TN into NW/north cntrl AL. A couple of the stronger cells in NW
AL have contained fairly impressive mesos, while minor/localized
flooding affects portions of srn mid TN. The Tor Watch in effect for
most of NW/north cntrl AL thru midnight has been extended east to
include Jackson Co for now. Other areas may need to be added before
the watch expires. A Flood Watch also remains in effect thru Wed
morning, and no changes are expected with that threat for now. A cold
front continues to approach from the west and will help to push any
of the lingering convection to the east heading into the early
morning hrs. Until then, a threat for strong/severe tstms and perhaps
a few tornadoes remain possible thru this evening, while a threat
for localized flooding continues thru Wed morning.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

With the front moving SE across the region on Wed, a tricky day
regarding how much cold air filters south and impact on temperatures.
Following the national blends, we have highs ranging from the mid
50s over NW LA to mid/upper 60s over NE AL (Marshall and southern
DeKalb counties). If more air filters in, temperatures may need
adjusting downward more for NE AL. With the front to our south, rain
chances will end across the area from NW to SE. However another storm
system now forming over the Desert SW will head eastward, riding in
the vicinity of the front draped south of the area. As it approaches,
the front moves back to the north as a warm front Wed night. Chances
of more rain returns to the forecast Wed night and on Thursday. The
best rain chances will be more to the NW, closer to the track of the
next surface low. With warmer air returning, high temperatures for
Thu should rise into the lower 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

We begin the extended portion of the forecast period with a storm
system taking shape just to the W of the CWFA. A shortwave
traversing the Central CONUS will eject NEwrd into the Great Lakes
region overnight Thursday into Friday. The associated sfc low will
move across Central TN and into Ern KY with a cold front knocking on
the doorstep of the CWFA around midnight. Heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms will be the primary hazards, aggravating any lingering
river flooding from the rain event earlier in the week. PWat values
around 1.6" hover between the daily max values and near-record
values per the SPC PWat Climo page, so this will definitely be
something to monitor. Models vary a little with the QPF with this
next rain event, on the order from 0.5-0.75", with isolated higher
amounts possible.

Through the day Friday, temperatures will fall in the wake of the
front, with "highs" around midday in the 50s. Rainfall should come
to an end by late morning/early afternoon with clouds lingering
across the area thru Friday night and into Saturday. This is in
response to isentropic upglide ahead of a quickly-moving disturbance
that will develop an area of low pressure along the Nrn GOMEX. As
such with these situations, precipitation that overspreads the area
from the S will interact with cold air at the sfc, leading to a
chance for a wintry mix Saturday night and into Sunday as
temperatures fall to morning lows and then warm back above freezing
during the day. No widespread issues are expected with this system
as much of it will fall in the form of liquid precipitation, but
it's possible for a few changes in p-type during this timeframe
dependent on the temperature profile in place.

Aside from the heavy rainfall and small shot at wintry precip over
the weekend, the new work week ahead looks relatively cool and dry!
Both the GFS and the ECMWF show generally a dry pattern for much of
the upcoming week, minus the ECMWF showing yet another shot of
rainfall for midweek. The GFS holds off with this feature and has a
late-week shot at rainfall, so will not make any changes this far
out in the future given the model discrepancies aside from low-end
PoPs as a blend of the two during this timeframe. Stay tuned for
further forecast updates as we head into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Bkn line of shra/tsra layered across mid TN into north MS is
gradually moving ESE and may approach the two main terminals within
the next couple of hrs. Reduced cigs/vis are possible in/near any of
the heavier precip. Additional shra/tsra are then possible later
tonight, as a cold front begins to move ewd across the region. Precip
should taper off early Wed morning following the passage of the
front, although MVFR cigs may linger for much of the day.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...09

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
802 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-231200-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
802 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms continue to affect much of southern
middle Tennessee into northwest and north central Alabama this
Tuesday evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of
brief damaging wind gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes, remain
possible for much of north Alabama through this evening. Localized
flash flooding will also be a concern in areas which received
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. A Tornado Watch is in effect for
much of north Alabama through midnight, while a Flood Watch remains
in effect for all of the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Any lingering thunderstorm activity will taper off to the east
Wednesday morning following the passage of a cold front. However,
this front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front
early Thursday morning. A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible
as this warm front moves northward.

A final band of showers and thunderstorms featuring a risk of gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall will occur late Thursday night or
early Friday morning, ahead of a stronger cold front.

Another storm system is expected to impact the outlook area over the
weekend, with a wintry mixture of rain and snow possible across the
region.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
requested this evening.

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