Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
239 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures will be the main story for this week. Showers
and thunderstorms possible in the Sierra Nevada, the Kern County
desert and mountain areas and portions of the southern San Joaquin
Valley Monday afternoon before being restricted to the Sierra
Nevada on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cooler temperatures we experienced this past weekend after
the long stretch of excessive triple digits is only the beginning
of a change as Autumn nears. Both GEFS and European Model
ensembles are in agreement that the flow in the upper level of the
atmospheres will be an onshore flow which will bring in cooler
air from the Pacific. Both ensembles also agree that there will be
multiple troughs through the week. This shift will help bring
temperatures down to where Wednesday and Thursday will be the
coolest days with 80s across the San Joaquin Valley and even some
80s are forecast to pop up in the Kern County desert. The
temperatures will be below average for Wednesday through Friday.

The remaining moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Kay will
decrease Monday especially with the shift in winds. The decrease in
moisture will lead to a reduction of thunderstorms and showers to
only be in the SIerra Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

Monday will be the only day this week with any probabilities of
triple digit heat as Fresno, Hanford, and Lemoore all will have
around 10 percent chance. Otherwise, the rest of the San Joaquin
Valley will have a near 0 chance on Monday and the entire valley
will have a near 0 chance of triple digits the rest of the week. In
addition, the probabilities of temperatures hitting at least 95 in
the San Joaquin Valley will be very low after Monday. On Monday,
Fresno, Hanford, and Lemoore will have around 55 to 60 percent
chance of having high temperatures of at least 95 degrees. The rest
of the valley will be between 30 and 50 percent chance of highs of
at least 95 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail in Central California through at
least the next 24 hours. However, MVFR and even IFR conditions are
possible due to the showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
especially over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County Desert and
Mountain areas.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  09/11/2022 15:52
EXPIRES: 09/12/2022 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JPK

weather.gov/hanford