Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
102 PM PDT Thu Aug 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The above average heat will subside after today. The monsoon
moisture will be the main story for the next two days as most of the
eastern portion of the forecast area including the Sierra Nevada,
Tehachapi, and the Kern County Desert will have at least a 20%
chance of thunderstorms and rain with the SIerras having over 50%
chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently, we have a ridge parked over the Four Corners which is
leading to the advection of monsoonal moisture into our forecast
area. This combination of moisture and above average temperatures
will contribute to more thunderstorms today especially in the Kern
County Desert and the Sierras. In addition, the moisture will bring
a near 20% chance of rain overnight on Friday to some of the Valley
locations such as Visalia and Bakersfield. Flash Flooding is
possible in the mountains during this time especially if the
storms produce rain at a rate of 1-2 inch/hour. Flash Flood
warnings may be issued for the mountains if the radar detects
significant rainfall.

On Friday, the ridge will move out of the area with an approaching
trough. The trough will get the temperatures to drop back down to
average and the rain chances will taper off including the Sierra
Friday night. Most locations will have a probability of 50% and
above of temperatures at or below 100 degrees on Friday. The
temperatures will remain at seasonal average into the middle of next
week as the trough begins to trek up north towards Oregon which will
also shut off the monsoon moisture tap. Both the GEFS and
European model ensembles are in good agreement about the trough
off the Pacific coast and have the center of the ridge being over
Colorado and New Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
The only concern will be thunderstorms which will taper off and be
spotty starting at 05Z but will pick up with an increase of moisture
at 09Z.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday August 4 2022... Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups in Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties... and
Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

JPK

weather.gov/hanford

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