Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

304 
WWUS72 KGSP 172001
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-181200-
/O.EXB.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.220217T2300Z-220218T1200Z/
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, 
Hollywood, Boydville, Toccoa, Royston, Gumlog, Lavonia, 
Franklin Springs, Canon, Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, 
Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, Bethlehem, Ellendale, 
Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, 
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain,
Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, 
Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Patterson, 
Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, 
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, 
Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, 
Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, 
Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, 
Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, 
Slater-Marietta, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, 
Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, 
Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Anderson, 
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills,
Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
301 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Upstate South Carolina, Northeast Georgia and the
  Foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts may be locally higher in regions of
  heavy rain showers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-181000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220218T1000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
301 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Ongoing through tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts may be locally higher in regions of 
  heavy rain showers tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-180800-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220218T0800Z/
Rabun-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, 
Luck, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, 
Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, 
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, 
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, and Etowah
301 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected
  along the higher ridges, with south winds 15 to 25 mph with
  gusts up to 45 mph in the valleys.

* WHERE...Portions of the North Carolina and North Georgia
  Mountains.

* WHEN...Ongoing until 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts may be locally higher in regions of 
  heavy rain showers this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

058 
WWUS72 KGSP 181004
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
504 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-181115-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220218T1200Z/
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
504 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished to well-below advisory criteria. Winds are
expected to increase from the northwest across the mountains later
this morning, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible, but these are
below Wind Advisory criteria. 


$$

NCZ033-049-050-181115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220218T1000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
504 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have diminished to well-below advisory criteria. Winds are
expected to increase from the northwest across the mountains later
this morning, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible, but these are
below Wind Advisory criteria. 

$$
Lane

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
125 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture returns to our region ahead of an approaching cold front.
A low pressure system and associated cold front will bring
widespread rain to the area Thursday into Thursday night. Another
high pressure system builds in for the weekend and into Monday. Low
pressure from Texas is expected to bring more rain Monday night and
Tuesday.  A slow moving front will give our area rain through much
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 am EST Thursday: A very active near-term period is slated
for today through tonight, with most of the impactful weather
occurring in the tonight period. The setup includes a split flow
pattern early this morning along and east of the Rockies, but with
the separate streams already in the process of phasing together as
the energy moves east into the Plains states. An associated surface
wave ahead of the mean central CONUS trough will develop along the
primary cold front today and lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley,
with our region solidly in a warm sector airmass. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure will slip farther off the eastern seaboard today, with
rapidly improving southerly flow across the southeast, but only a
gradual increase in deep layer moisture in profiles. Expect low
clouds and patchy fog to be fairly abundant this morning in the good
low-level moisture. Dissipating late morning fog will give way to
greater light rain shower coverage, especially in and near the
mountains along the eastern escarpment. Warm advection will result
in plenty of 60s temps across the region this afternoon, with some
lower 70s in the southeast Piedmont.

As the advancing cold front approaches the southern Appalachians
from the west this evening, strong upper divergence will begin to
set up southeast of an upper jetlet stretched over the Ohio River
Valley. The upper divergence will coincide with a rapid increase in
the low-level jet, with 60+ kt quite possible at 850 mb for the
nighttime hours. The first consequence of the increasing winds will
be the need for at least a high elevation Wind Advisory over the NC
mountains. Wind problems with warm advection mixing should continue
east of the mountains and into the lower valleys as well, but with
gusts generally below advisory criteria. The second issue will be
heavy rainfall, especially in the southern Appalachians. The faster
progression of the system appears to be limiting QPF a bit more,
with mainly 2 to 2.5 inches in the most upslope prone southern
mountain sections, and quite a bit less elsewhere. A Flood Watch is
not currently expected. Further, the stout southerly jet and surging
surface dewpoints in the warm sector will lead to a marginal severe
thunderstorm threat tonight. However, SBCAPE values appear to be
only 100-200 J/kg with the nighttime fropa, and mid-level lapse
rates are not at all impressive. A linear segment could well develop
just ahead of the front. Thermodynamics may limit severe potential
in our region, but the gradient winds will certainly exhibit good
mix-down potential. Finally, brief NW flow upslope snow showers will
be possible toward daybreak Friday along the spine of the southern
Appalachians, with precipitation exiting the eastern zones prior to
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Wednesday: The model trends continue toward
the direction of a lower threat for flash flooding and severe
weather. While mid/upper forcing look great when the system is to
our west late Thursday, as the upper divergence and DPVA cross
over the mtns, both weaken with time as they move east Thursday
night. The front continues to make fairly quick eastward progress
as well. This continues to place a limit on the QPF, and with the
trend in the wrong direction, it is getting more difficult to see
much in the way of anything more than a highly localized flash flood
threat in the SW flow upslope areas Thursday afternoon/evening. The
Slight Risk in the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is probably
too dire. Another indication...the QPF we have been carrying fails
to bring the Upper French Broad anywhere close to action stage at
Blantyre NC. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch will not be entertained at
this point. As to the severe thunderstorm threat, the 12Z HREF is
extremely unimpressed and fails to register even the slightest
bit of updraft helicity or updraft strength as the convective
elements cross the region. Granted, we will never turn our back on
a frontal passage with strong shear, but until we see some signal
for sfc-based CAPE getting into the 300-500 J/kg range, severe
storms appear unlikely. As to the particulars, the main precip
will move into the mtns in the evening hours and then east of the
Blue Ridge around midnight. The front should cross the region in
the early morning hours and be to our east by sunrise Friday. Some
precip may linger over the southeastern fringe early in the day,
but be gone by mid-morning. Some westerly flow upslope should also
linger on the TN border, but there isn't much of a cold air push
behind the front with the upper trof axis remaining well to the
west through the day, so any snow will be only at the very high
elevations. No significant accumulation is expected. As for the
temps, after a very mild night, high temps Friday will remain 5-10
degrees above normal on Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1257 PM EST Wednesday: Still looks like a quiet weekend. The
upper trof axis crosses overhead Friday night and sfc high pressure
builds in through Saturday. Really not much of an air mass change
with temps still on the order of five degrees above normal for
Saturday and still a bit on the warm side of normal even on Sunday
as the large continental high pressure center moves past to the
north and across the Mid-Atlantic region under a nearly-zonal
flow. That flow starts to back around to SW Monday with a broad
trof-ridge pattern across the country. This will support the
sfc high moving off the east coast by Monday and a return of
Atlantic/Gulf moisture for the early part of next week. The model
blend used in the forecast has precip chances picking up from
the SW during the day on Monday even though the main operational
guidance delays any arrival until the afternoon. Think any chance
for onset wintry precip types at high elevation is low. The pattern
stalls through mid-week, maintaining the influx of Gulf moisture
and the warm advection that will spell a rain chance at any time
Monday night through Wednesday. Probability might be the highest
on Tuesday, but there is uncertainty on that timing. Confidence
is much higher that anything falling will be all liquid as temps
will be well above normal, and well enough above freezing across
the mtns.  In this pattern, we will have to remain on the lookout
for thunderstorms and severe weather/flash flooding threats, the
guidance suggests the former could be a problem on Wednesday. Some
members of the GEFS show sfc-based CAPE approaching 500 J/kg, as
does the old run of the ECMWF on Wednesday afternoon, when temps
are expected to climb into the 70s east of the mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR ceilings have either already developed
across the terminals or will develop through the early morning hours
given the abundant low level moisture. IFR to LIFR fog is also
possible in some locations closer to daybreak given the spottier
nature of the mid/high level moisture, but this will be an ongoing
battle with continued nocturnal mixing that is keeping surface winds
a bit elevated overnight. Anticipate some recovery of cigs to MVFR,
or even briefly VFR this afternoon, but with a return to MVFR bases
this evening as the deeper moisture arrives along/ahead of the
advancing cold front from the west. Will steadily ramp up shower
chances from mostly VCSH/PROB30 today to categorical rain showers
tonight, with a thunder mention at just KAND after 03Z for now.
Southerly winds will increase throughout, with gusts into the 20s
developing today, and some spotty gusts closer to 30 kt tonight
along and near the frontal zone and any heavier showers. LLWS
conditions will be possible throughout but appear most likely at
KAVL where the low-level jet aloft arrives first.

Outlook: A return to dry and breezy conditions is expected on Friday
following the frontal passage, with dry high pressure dominating
this weekend. The next chance for restrictions will be on Monday, as
the next system approaches from the west.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
516 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-SCZ001>003-171030-
Rabun-Habersham-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
516 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the region
Thursday evening through Thursday night. Isolated flooding will be
possible, especially in locations near the border between North
Carolina, South Carolina, and northeast Georgia, and also along the
upper reaches of the French Broad River. The storms may also pose a
threat of isolated damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-171030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
516 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall and strong southerly winds may impact the North
Carolina Mountains near the Tennessee border Thursday. Isolated
flooding and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph above 3500 ft will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ004>014-
019-171030-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
516 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will cross the
Piedmont Thursday evening through Thursday night. Locally heavy
rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. Also,
southerly gradient winds may have gusts up 30 to 40 mph Thursday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK