Wind Advisory 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of precipitation associated with the arctic front will sweep
through the area tonight with rain changing over to a brief period
of snow across the mountains and foothills along/north of I-40.
Dangerously cold air will quickly spill into the area by Friday
morning with gusty winds and subzero wind chills. Temperatures will
remain below freezing for most locations through Sunday morning
before gradual warming takes place very late this weekend into next
week with dry weather continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 am EST: The approaching cold front is moving rapidly
through eastern Tennessee early this morning. Rain shower coverage
continues to grow from the west ahead of the boundary, with spotty
snow showers likely already mixing in at the higher peaks of the NC
mountains. Despite the rapidly increasing winds, low-level moisture
will keep low clouds and spotty fog around for a couple more hours
over piedmont sections, but with rapid scattering from the west as
the spotty showers cross the region. The mesoscale models all have a
fairly quick passage of the showers with the front, mainly crossing
the mountains through 08Z, passing the foothills by 09Z and east of
the Piedmont circa 11Z. The best DPVA crosses mainly the NC
mountains early this morning and brief northwest flow snow showers,
with light accumulations, are possible along the TN border through
mid morning.

The main story for the early part of the period will be the winds.
The warnings and advisories look generally well-placed, however,
most numerical models now have brief post-fropa mixing just touching
50kt isotachs aloft. This is only for an hour or two at best east of
the mountains early this morning and there remains some question
about whether all this momentum can actually mix down to the surface
with the westerly flow at this time of the morning. Will keep a
strongly worded advisory in place for now. Otherwise, 850 mb winds
should peak around 50 kt during the heart of the strong cold
advection today, and surface temperatures will fall rapidly across
the region. Depending on morning snow, a mountain black ice mention
may be needed in the next SPS issuance for the cold wave.

Spotty snow showers could return to the western NC mountains this
evening, with additional shortwave energy possibly making a run at
the southern Appalachians. Will mention mainly just flurries for
now, with windy conditions continuing. The cold and wind chills will
be the main story, with minimum apparent temperature values minus 20
to minus 30 in many NC mountain locations, and minus 5 to minus 10
east of the mountains. Min temps in the single digits east of the
mountains and negative single digits across the mountains will
establish the cold wave in earnest tonight. No changes to the wind
or wind chill products through tonight are currently planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday: Potentially record breaking wind chill
values will be in store Friday night as a brutal cold arctic airmass
settles in behind an arctic cold front that sweeps through the area
early Friday. A deep stacked low centered over the Great Lakes
region will keep very cold thicknesses over the region through
much of the short-term. Very strong CAA will filter in Friday
into Saturday and allow for very low wind chill values overnight
Friday as a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for for locations
below 3500' feet in the mountains and across the Piedmont as wind
chill values range from 0F to -10F degrees. A Wind Chill Warning
has been issued for locations above 3500' in the mountains with
values ranging from -20F to -40F degrees. With 850mb temperatures
between -15C to -25C degrees, expect actual temperatures to drop
like a rock with single digits possible across most locations in
the Piedmont and subzero values across the High Country, so record
lows will obviously be in jeopardy.

Temperatures tread slightly warmer for Saturday as the axis of the
stacked upper low slips east of the area. Very cold thicknesses
will still be in place, while the leading edge of a stout surface
high (~1040+mb) works its way into the CFWA, while being centered
over the Great Plains. In this case, expect for highs to remain
below freezing for the most locations with teens and twenties in
the mountains, but winds will gradually subside outside of the
mountains on Saturday. Pressure gradient remains relatively tight
over the mountains through Saturday night. As a result, another
Wind Chill Advisory may be needed, especially for elevations above
3500'. Thicknesses gradually rebound on Sunday as the stacked
upper low lifts into Atlantic Canada and surface high builds in
over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Expect temperatures to
"rebound", but values will remain 15 to 20 degrees below normal
under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday: Flat upper troughiness will remain overhead
early next week as a few embedded shortwave clippers push through
the region. Most shortwaves will be moisture starved due to
the cold and dry airmass, but the GFS and ECMWF have hinted at
some very light QPF response. Mentionable PoPs remain out of
the forecast for now, but expect for cloud cover to increase as
a result. Temperatures will be on the upward swing throughout
next week, especially by the middle to late part of the week as
a amplifying upper ridge builds in from the west in response to
a longwave digging upper trough over the western CONUS. With much
warmer thicknesses and high pressure meandering over the East Coast
through much of the period, expect for temperatures to uptick by
a few degrees each day next week and eventually values return to
seasonal averages by mid to late next week. Conditions will remain
dry through the entire period, but model guidance hint at our next
storm system impacting the area beyond D8.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR cigs east of the mountains should
steadily scatter with the vigorous cold frontal passage through the
early morning hours, with mainly VCSH mentioned with the fropa. The
rain showers could mix with snow showers briefly at times at KAVL
and this is now mentiioned through 08Z. Will keep a mention of LLWS
at all sites just ahead of, and around the time of, fropa. Winds
will increase going forward, with SW winds turning westerly through
daybreak and northwest through the day. Peak gusts in the 30 to 40
kt range are quite likely at all sites, with some gusts to 45 kt
expected at KAVL during the heart of the cold advection later this
morning. Gusts will slowly diminish through tonight, but with G30 kt
or better continuing at KAVL through the period, and G20+ kt at the
other sites through early Saturday morning.

Outlook: Dry and very cold air will persist through the weekend and
into Monday. Gusty winds continue through Saturday but with lower
speeds than observed on Friday. A dry warming trend develops through
most of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-23

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      69 1933     16 1989     59 1990      1 1989
   KCLT      73 1990     21 1989     63 1990      8 1989
   KGSP      70 1970     24 1989     61 1990     10 1989
                1933

RECORDS FOR 12-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1955     17 1906     59 2015     -5 1983
   KCLT      73 2015     29 1906     63 2015      6 1983
   KGSP      71 1964     30 1945     61 2015      8 1983
                            1906

RECORDS FOR 12-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      71 2021     14 1983     59 2015     -7 1983
   KCLT      77 1955     22 1983     63 2015      4 1983
   KGSP      78 1955     22 1983     61 2015      6 1983

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Saturday for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ035>037-051-
     052-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Saturday for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
     508-510.
     Wind Chill Warning above 3500 feet until 1 PM EST Saturday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-505.
     Wind Chill Advisory below 3500 feet until 1 PM EST Saturday
     for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-049-
     050.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Saturday for
     NCZ033-049-050.
     Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for NCZ048-053-501-503-
     505.
SC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Saturday for SCZ008>014-019-101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-232345-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-232345-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

An arctic cold front will generate snow showers across the North
Carolina mountains tonight. The higher snowfall amounts will range
between one and possibly three inches across elevations above 3500
feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-232345-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.

An arctic cold front will generate snow showers across the North
Carolina mountains tonight. The higher snowfall amounts will range
between one and possibly three inches across elevations above 3500
feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-053-505-232345-
Madison-Buncombe-McDowell Mountains-
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

An arctic cold front will generate snow showers across the North
Carolina mountains tonight. The higher snowfall amounts will range
between one and possibly three inches across elevations above 3500
feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ501-503-232345-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

An arctic cold front will generate snow showers across the North
Carolina mountains tonight. The higher snowfall amounts will range
between one and possibly three inches across elevations above 3500
feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ065-507-509-232345-
Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
642 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

An arctic cold front will generate snow showers across the North
Carolina mountains tonight. The higher snowfall amounts will range
between one and possibly three inches across elevations above 3500
feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.