Wind Advisory 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

401 
WWUS72 KGSP 200724
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-201500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-221120T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
224 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Single digit wind chill values, with below
  zero values above 3500 feet, can be expected late tonight and
  early Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MPR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
931 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross the forecast area tonight and reinforce
cold air through the weekend. Dry high pressure will persist Monday
before limited moisture returns from the southwest on Tuesday. Dry
air returns on Wednesday before a strong and moist low pressure
system pushes across the region Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EST Saturday: Cirrus will continue to stream over the
area overnight, as upper divergence increases in the right entrance
region of an upper jet max strengthening in response to a short wave
trough digging toward the Ohio Valley. A cold front associated with
these height falls will sweep across our CWA tonight. The air mass
will remain too dry and deep forcing will pass to far north of the
area to support any precip chances, and the front will instead act
to reinforce the unseasonably cool air mass while also introducing
much drier air.

Gusty mountain winds are also expected to develop overnight into
Sunday morning as the pressure gradient increases in the cold
advection regime. Gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range are expected in
locations along the Blue Ridge. Therefore, will hoist a Wind
Advisory for the northern mountains and Blue Ridge portions of the
northern foothills. By daybreak, single digit wind chill values are
forecast above 3500 feet or so, with even some below zero values
possible above 5000 feet. This falls short of Wind Chill Advisory
criteria, but will mention in the Wind Advisory NPW. Temps haven't
fallen as fast as expected given the thick cirrus overhead.
Therefore, have slowed the downward trend, but allow temps to fall
to the forecast lows by daybreak when the cirrus should be
scattering out.

High clouds should clear across much of the area by sunrise Sunday,
giving way to another sunny but unseasonably cool day with max temps
expected to average more than 10 degrees below normal. While gusty
mountain winds are expected to diminish through the morning,
increases mixing is expected to result in plummeting RH values
during the afternoon. See the Fire Wx Discussion below for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...A cold pattern continues over the short term
period. Cold Canadian hipres will center across the FA Mon and
slowly shift north thru Tue. This will reinforce a cool airmass
already on place as deeply dry air allows for lows Mon to drop into
the m20s non/mtns and l20s mtn valleys. With temps beginning the day
abt 15 degrees below normal, max insol will have a hard time warming
the sfc layer and max temps shud only reach about 10 degrees below
normal levels. On Tue, cloud cover increases within difl flow aloft
ahead of an h5 s/w pushing into the MS Valley. These mid and upper
clouds will ease rad cooling, yet still expect lows arnd 5 degrees
below normal. As waves of upper energy traverse the area from the
southwest, GOM moist adv on backside of weak coastal low kicks in
which will likely bring periods of light precip to NE GA and the wrn
most Carolinas arnd daybreak. Not expecting much total rainfall with
this system as overall moisture depth remain limited. There may be a
period of light snow at precip onset time as a dry sfc layer
wetbulbs below freezing across NE GA and the srn NC mtns. This snow
will be short-lived and any accums will be negligible. Highs Tue
will remain rather cool, abt 8-10 degrees below normal as widespread
cloud cover reduces insol greatly.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...A few light showers are possible to begin the
ext range across the se/rn zones as the FA remains under the
influence of an offshore low pressure system. This low will continue
moving east into the Atl ocean Wed and allow for a modified area of
hipres to build in from the north. With near normal lows and good
insol, expect max temps to rise back to normal levels. Thursday
remains mostly dry with near normal temps as well, before a moist
system of some type approaches from the west or southwest.
Confidence levels have decreased with the Fri thru Sat system as the
latest GFS now cuts off an upper low to the west and sigfnt/ly
increases thicknesses across the FA as sfc cyclogenesis develops
over MS by Fri afternoon. This soln is much further south than the
ECMWF and CMC solns, however, the NBM has not given much weight to
the GFS possibilities for now. So, will make little changes to the
low-end PoPs over the latter period and expect a potential of a NW
flow snow event beginning Fri evening/night persisting into Sat.
Temps are advertised below normal for now Fri/Sat, but much will
depend on the actual synoptic pattern affecting the area by that
time.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR will continue for the next 24-30 hours,
as an already-dry air mass is reinforced by a dry cold front
overnight. High clouds will continue to stream over the area
overnight, with some low VFR clouds this evening, but it's otherwise
a wind forecast. SW winds early this evening steadily veer to W then
NW and N overnight as the front moves through. Low end gusts will be
possible outside of the mountains. KAVL will see NW wind becoming
NNW and gusty. Speeds will diminish outside of the mountains Sunday
as direction becomes NE. Speeds KAVL don't drop off until afternoon
but remain NNW.

Outlook: Cold and dry high pressure will remain over the region into
the middle of next week, although some moisture may spread over the
area with a coastal low Tuesday. Generally, VFR conditions are
expected throughout this period, although patchy morning fog can't
be ruled out in the mountain valleys toward the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry cold front will bring gusty mountains winds and much drier air
to the region tonight into Sunday. While the winds are expected to
steadily diminish during the daylight hours Sunday, relative
humidity is expected to plummet to the 15-25% range across the
entire area Sunday afternoon. While winds will generally be a
non-factor outside the mountains, there may be a period of an hour
or two in which winds of 10-15 mph w/ gusts of 20-25 mph overlap
with critical RH values over the mountains. A Fire Danger Statement
will be issued for Sunday for northeast GA...where only one
meteorological criterion is necessary...and coordination with land
management agencies may be necessary for a FDS in the NC mtns.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger from 9 AM EST Sunday through Sunday
     afternoon for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Increased Fire Danger from 9 AM EST Sunday through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ033-049-050-053-065-503-505.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033-049-050-501-
     503-505.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

NCZ033-049-050-202130-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
420 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Windy conditions will develop across the northern mountains of North
Carolina tonight. The higher elevations will see gusts in the 35 to
45 mph range. These windy conditions will combine with early morning
temperatures in the teens to produce wind chill values below zero,
mainly at elevations above 3500 feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>059-062>064-068>072-082-501-502-504-
506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-202130-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
420 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ053-065-503-505-202130-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Buncombe-Henderson-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
420 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.