Wind Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

173 
WWUS72 KGSP 011949
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
249 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-505-020400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220102T1100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
249 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in the mountains of western 
  North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A line of thunderstorms arriving from the 
  west tonight may make the gusts stronger and more erratic as 
  shower and thunderstorm outflows mix with the prevailing 
  southwesterly winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

267 
WWUS72 KGSP 020349
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1049 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-505-021100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220102T1100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
1049 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in the mountains of western 
  North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A line of thunderstorms arriving from the 
  west tonight may make the gusts stronger and more erratic as 
  shower and thunderstorm outflows mix with the prevailing 
  southwesterly winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MPR

866 
WWUS72 KGSP 020857
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-505-021000-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220102T1100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
McDowell Mountains-
357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds continue to abate across the mountains of North Carolina, so
the Wind Advisory has been cancelled early.

$$

PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front is expected to impact the region later tonight
and cross the area by midday on Sunday. Much cooler air should move
in behind the front by Monday morning with higher elevation snow
possible. Fair weather will return for the first half of the week
with the next significant cold front arriving on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EST New Years Day: Adjusted timing for PoPs based on
most recent model trends for the cold front's arrival tonight. Low
stratus has become more widespread, but fog has not been a concern
due to a sustained southwesterly wind amidst the area being in a WAA
regime. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Surface analysis has the quasi-stationary boundary slowly mixing out
as it tries to push north over the CFWA as the warm sector begins to
override and essentially "wash-out" the front. Widespread dewpoints
in the 50s and 60s along with an increasing southwesterly flow will
support WAA across the CFWA. With the axis of the subtropical ridge
offshore the Carolina coast, expect the subsidence inversion to
weaken more substantially than previous few nights. With low stratus
and fog already developing underneath the weak inversion, expect
this trend to scatter out a few hours after daybreak, around the mid-
morning hours. The positively tilted upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS will gradually push east and bring our next cold
front into the CFWA by the end of the period. Overnight lows will be
25 to 30 degrees above normal due to extensive cloud cover and being
placed under the warm sector regime.

As the upper trough slides east towards the Southern and High
Plains on Saturday, isentropic upglide will begin to develop
ahead of the cold front associated with the upper trough. Expect
isolated to scattered showers to develop on and off through the day
Saturday in response. Very modest instability could occur during the
afternoon/evening hours, especially if clouds can scatter more than
expected and decent insolation reaches the surface. This could allow
for a few thunderstorms to initiate if the forcing can overcome the
mid-level cap set up by the subsidence inversion, mainly organized
multi-cells or a mini supercell or two could develop due to the
available 60 - 70 kts of bulk shear (0 - 6 km) and potential for
modest SBCAPE. Otherwise, clouds will remain extensive through much
of the daytime period as we stay locked into the WAA regime. The
meat and potatoes of the forecast comes later into the Saturday
night - Sunday morning timeframe. One other thing to consider for
Saturday is that the MSLP gradient will tighten and 850mb winds
will strengthen ahead of the cold during peak heating Saturday,
which will likely cause gusty conditions in the higher elevations
and breezy conditions east of the mountains during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Wind Advisory level gusts may occur over
elevations above 3500'. In this case, a Wind Advisory may be issued
by the next morning update. Highs on Saturday will flirt or even
break daily record highs for New Years Day as temperatures will
run 18 to 24 degrees above normal for most locations.

The real excitement is expected for Saturday night as the
aforementioned cold front begins to enter the CFWA. The ingredients
for severe weather are there as diffluent flow aloft, vigorous
forcing, great deep layer shear (>65 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear),
stout low-level jet (40 - 50 kts), and plenty of moisture due
to the CFWA being placed in the warm sector regime and deep
layer southwesterly flow. The uncertainty at hand deals with
the timing and available instability. The GFS has come in with
less SBCAPE along the boundary as its pushing through the CFWA
overnight into the morning hours on Sunday. Other model guidance,
including most of the CAMs have very modest SBCAPE (100 - 300+
J/kg) along the boundary. One caveat in the forecast is that one
consistent trend has developed and that is the better SRH values
are east of the frontal boundary as it slides from west to east
across the area. This would essentially lower the tornado risk,
especially if there is a distinct lack of SBCAPE and the potential
QLCS isn't as robust as it approaches the TN-NC border just after
midnight Saturday to help sustain the environmental parameters. The
overall timing differs between most model guidance, but the overall
consensus is that the cold front will enter the far western
zones just after midnight and will exit east of the CFWA after
12Z Sunday. The better chances for severe weather will be in the
far western zones as the best SBCAPE sets up in that area. Thus,
SPC has placed a slight risk for this area as the boundary pushes
through. The primary threats will be damaging winds and an isolated
tornado, which is a possibility for much of the CFWA during the
fropa. Another thing to watch for Saturday night is a low-end hydro
threat. PWAT values will be anomalously high for this time of the
year ahead of the boundary ( 1.0" - 1.5+"). If convection can get
going and develop over areas that have received a decent amount of
rain over the past couple of days, a few hydro products may be
issued as well for a marginal flash flood potential. Low
temperatures Saturday night will remain 25 to 30 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...an active period to start the next week
as a very dynamic system is expected to move across the fcst area
Sunday and Sunday night, with much uncertainty and disagreement
with model solutions. There are two main concerns...ongoing severe
weather Sunday morning...and winter weather Sunday night/early
Monday morning.

The synoptic scale models have settled on a consensus that would
place a SW-to-NE oriented strong cold front over the mtns at 12Z
Sunday, while the convection-allowing models show a broken band
of frontally-forced convection east of the mtns, the HRRR being
a bit faster than the rest. Strong low level convergence along
the front and DPVA aloft should be enough to sustain this band of
deep convection as it crosses the remainder of the fcst area. What
remains to be seen is how much buoyancy will be available. The
models are not indicative of anything more than a few hundred J/kg
of sfc-based CAPE that would move east of the fcst area by noon. It
is worth noting the SREF keeps the upper bound below 500 J/kg. So,
while shear will be excellent, buoyancy should remain the limiting
factor. Current thinking is that the character of the low level
forcing will be enough to maintain a marginal risk of severe storms,
main threat being wind damage, as the convection moves east over
the Upstate/wrn Piedmont, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled
out. What severe chances will exist certainly look better to our
east later in the day.

After the frontal convection makes it to the east, a relative lull
should set in, at least over the mtns/foothills through the middle
part of the day. Things get interesting once the sun starts to
go down. Precip chances should ramp back up initially near the TN
border as the flow behind the front becomes northwesterly. Divergent
model solutions with regard to the mid/upper system lead to
diminished confidence Sunday night. The GFS solution is the most
interesting as it cuts off the short wave and brings a compact
upper low over the top of the fcst area early Monday morning when
the diurnal temp minimum would favor wintry precip escaping the
mtns. Most of the solutions favor some kind of sfc low development
along the cold front over the southeast Sunday night that would
hold up the eastward progress of the front and re-introduce precip
across the fcst area as frontogenesis strengthens over the fcst
area to the NW of the developing low. The current thinking is the
00Z NAM is an outlier, and a quick look at the 06Z NAM bears this
out as it has come on board with more precip over the mtns early
Sunday morning. All this will be happening as the cold air filters
in from the NW behind the low, changing rain to snow from west
to east beginning in the evening hours on the ridgetops and then
down into the valleys around midnight. Depending on how quickly
the cold air infiltrates, this could easily push warning criteria
at the high elevations, but for the most part an advisory-level
event is suggested across the mtns. East of the mtns, the cold
air will be chasing the back edge of the precip, so while a
changeover along/north of I-85 could happen before precip ends by
daybreak Monday, we leave it as merely a tantalizing prospect for
the time being east of the foothills. Precip should end entirely
by mid-morning Monday, with much cooler air settling across the
region. High temps will be on the order of 20 degrees cooler
compared to Monday, so most people will understand that Winter
has finally returned.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 222 AM EST Saturday...we should be back to winter for
the medium range part of the fcst. For the first part of next
week, a nearly zonal flow aloft will support seasonally cool
dry sfc high pressure moving slowly over the region, with temps
below normal. The sfc high should hang on into Wednesday with
temps returning to normal, as an upstream trof deepens over the
Plains. The upper trof will push a weak boundary into the region
Wednesday night, with some possible p-type issues Thursday morning
as precip chances develop over the mtns. From that point onward,
model solutions diverge with respect to the possible development
of a wave on the front. The latest ECMWF is much more aggressive
with tracking a sfc low along the boundary, but to the west
of the mtns Thursday/Thursday night. If that model is correct,
the initial p-type issues are eliminated in favor of rain. Both
agree with bringing cold air back in the wake of the front/sfc
low Thursday night, forcing a changeover to another brief period
of mainly high elevation wintry precip, with precip ending around
daybreak Friday. How much of this spills east of the mtns remains
to be seen as the cold air will be chasing the departure of the
precip in the early morning hours. Cool high pressure returns for
Saturday with temps back below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR/IFR cigs have developed at all TAF sites
except KAVL. With a weaker subsidence inversion, expect restrictions
to lift and scatter out a little sooner than in recent days. Dense
fog is of less concern than previous nights as well due to better
sustained winds.

Winds will become gusty throughout the day today along with sporadic
showers and thunderstorms. Thus, a prevailing VCSH has been included
in almost every TAF line for all terminals through the period. South
to southwesterly winds are expected through much of the period with
low-end gusts included for all TAF sites starting this afternoon. A
line for the wind shift to the northwest behind the cold front has
been added to KAVL for the very end of the TAF period to try and
time out the frontal passage. The cold front will enter the area
tonight, mainly after 06Z Sunday. Expect more widespread IFR or
lower restrictions and rain Saturday night as the cold front passes
through and cigs/vsbys lower in response. -SHRA or a PROB30 for -
SHRA has been included for all TAF sites in order to give the best
approximate time for when the better coverage for rain will most
likely occur. -TSRA could be included in the TAFs at some point
during the forecast period, but confidence is too low at this time
for any thunder mention with the exception of KCLT.

Outlook: Restrictions will likely redevelop tonight into Sunday,
while an area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany
a cold front into the area late tonight. Very gusty NW winds will
likely develop over the mountains in the wake of the front Sun
night, followed by the return of dry high pressure early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 01-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 1952     21 2018     54 1985     -1 1928
   KCLT      74 1985     29 1881     56 1973     10 1928
   KGSP      75 1952     28 1918     56 1952      8 1918

RECORDS FOR 01-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1952     12 1928     50 1930     -5 1928
   KCLT      78 1952     22 1928     57 1985      6 1928
                                        1966
   KGSP      74 1952     24 1928     55 1985      5 1928
                                        1966

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CAC
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
708 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-021215-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
708 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop over northeast Georgia and the
southern mountains of North Carolina through early this evening.
Cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy rain will be possible with
any storms.

After a brief lull, a band of thunderstorms and heavy rain will move
in from east Tennessee and north Georgia ahead of a strong cold front,
likely after midnight. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe, with
damaging wind the most likely threat. Locally heavy rainfall may
result in some flooding of small streams and poor drainage areas. An
isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly over southwest
North Carolina and extreme northeast Georgia. Any of the storms could
produce cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Precipitation is expected to redevelop across the mountains Sunday
evening, with much colder air moving in from the west around midnight
Sunday night. Rain will change to snow at the ridgetops and mountain
peaks in the late evening, and then down into the valleys after
midnight. A brief mix with light freezing rain could happen before
the precipitation ends around daybreak Monday. A light accumulation
of snow will be possible, mainly at high elevations along the
Tennessee border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-021215-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Greenwood-
708 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop over northeast Georgia and the
Upstate through early this evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning and
brief heavy rain will be possible with any storms.

After a brief lull, a band of thunderstorms and heavy rain will move
in from north Georgia ahead of a strong cold front, likely in the
pre-dawn hours. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe, with
damaging wind the most likely threat. Locally heavy rainfall may
result in some flooding of small streams and poor drainage areas. An
isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly over northeast
Georgia and the western Upstate. Any of the storms could produce
cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region on Sunday
morning. Ahead and along the cold front, a band of thunderstorms and
heavy rain can be expected. A few severe storms will be possible,
with the main threat being damaging wind gusts, but an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain could result in localized
flooding. Any thunderstorms will produce cloud-to-ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-021215-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
708 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Piedmont of North
Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the western Piedmont and
northern Upstate through early this evening. Cloud- to- ground
lightning and brief heavy rain will be possible with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A strong cold front is expected to cross the region on Sunday morning.
Ahead and along the cold front, a band of thunderstorms and heavy
rain can be expected. A few severe storms will be possible, with the
main threat being damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain could result in localized flooding.
Any thunderstorms will produce cloud-to-ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-501>510-021215-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
708 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for foothills and northwest
Piedmont of North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the southern foothills of
North Carolina through early this evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning
and brief heavy rain will be possible with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Precipitation that lingers across the region early Monday morning may
briefly mix with or change to light snow, with much colder air
moving in from the west before daybreak Monday. A light accumulation
of snow will be possible, mainly at high elevations along the Blue
Ridge Escarpment and the South Mountains. The precipitation should
end around daybreak Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.