Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure over the area slowly weakens as a cold
front approaches from the northwest on Wednesday. The front moves
into the area Thursday and south of the area Friday. Cooler and
drier high pressure moves in for the weekend but moisture returns
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 243 PM EDT Tuesday: Convection ongoing, mainly across the
higher terrain at mid-afternoon, with another concentration to
the south of the Charlotte metro area. The situation is similar
to yesterday, with sfc-based CAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg
to fuel scattered to numerous thunderstorms, but sub-800 J/kg
dCAPE to limit the wet microburst potential. Will expect a few
to get strong enough to maybe warn on, but not much more than
that. Precipitable water remains high, but not outrageously so,
and fcst soundings show warm cloud depth not as impressive as
days past and enough of a light wind in the cloud bearing layer
to keep storms moving, albeit slowly. Will not rule out heavy
rain and a threat for localized flash flooding, mainly over the
mtns/foothills/urban areas. Temp/dewpt trends look good into the
late afternoon apart from where storms develop. The CAMs show this
activity lasting into the evening hours as the buoyancy is slowly
consumed with storms developing on outflow boundaries.

The overall situation does not change appreciably through Wednesday
afternoon as the Atlantic subtropical ridge remains in control. The
latest guidance keeps an upstream cold front far enough to the NW
through late in the day to suggest it will not be a factor, however
some of the CAMs show better coverage in the afternoon. Thus,
the precip probs are above climo, with most of the fcst area in
the categorical range near the TN border, and likely mainly along
the I-85 and then N/W of there. Our severe chances look similar to
the last few days, with a few strong/severe storms possible, mainly
for a wind damage threat. We will also have an elevated threat for
heavy rain and a slightly higher risk for localized flash flooding,
given continued high PW, deeper warm cloud depth relative to the
last few days, and slow movement. Temps will remain close to climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Tuesday: Upper heights atop the region will
continue to fall on Thursday as an attendent baroclinic zone sags
south into the cwfa. The short range model consensus is quite
responsive in triggering deeper convection with the front, so the
going thinking of showers and storms becoming numerous regionwide by
Thursday afternoon remains on track.  Clouds and showers will also
take a bite of the piedmont 90 degree streak, with maxes in the 80s
expected. With the timing of the southward progression of sfc front,
deep convection has the potential to be maintained until well after
sunset Thursday in the southern tier of the cwfa. On Friday,
expecting the cwfa to be within the southern periphery of a drier
continental airmass with sfc dwpts taking a notable tumble. Despite
maximums topping out only about a category below the summertime
climo, afternoon relative humidity values will be a notch or two
lower than typical.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM EDT Tuesday: An impressively quiet period wx-wise
remains in the cards for this weekend within the dry NW flow aloft
with piedmont middle 80s expected for daily maximums.  With the
airmass modifying and moistening heading into Monday, energy is
progged to slip toward the Southern Appalchains within the lingering
NW flow aloft prompting a return to daily shower and thunderstorm
chances through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Very similar to yesterday out
there. Scattered thunderstorms have already developed and the
mesoscale model output suggests a possibility at all terminals,
so all get a TEMPO for TSRA and associated restrictions. Outside
of storms, cloud bases will be in the 035 to 045 range and could
be a bkn ceiling at times. Wind should stay light S to SW through
the evening with the Atlantic subtropical high in control of the
pattern. Once again, some precip could linger into the late evening,
but away from the terminals for the most part. Overnight, fog
could develop once again where precip fell, with KAND/KHKY having
the best shot outside the mtns. Mtn valley fog should form again,
so included LIFR again in the pre-dawn hours at KAVL. Wednesday
looks a bit more active according to the CAMs, so a PROB30 was
put at KAVL starting at 16Z. Also elected to go PROB30 at KCLT
for the time being, but expect a conversion to TEMPO with later
issuances. Wind should be SW again.

Outlook: Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in the
mountain valleys and wherever appreciable rain fell the previous
day. Shower and thunderstorm coverage, and associated restrictions,
WILL increase ahead of and along a passing cold front Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. Drier conditions look to return Friday
into the weekend behind the front.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO/RWH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-100915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
514 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Just like yesterday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms are
likely as well, resulting in isolated areas of excessive rainfall
along with strong wind gusts. Any storm today will have the potential
to produce cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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