Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain
control of our weather pattern for several more days. We can expect
predominately afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day with the best coverage generally over the higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Opaque cloudiness associated with a slow moving MCV remains a
headache across the nrn zones. Lowered max temps a couple more
degrees in these areas as clouds will take a few more hrs to push
north and/or dissipate. The nrn zones may not have much time to
recover and instability may be more limited by the later afternoon,
so lowered PoPs to slight then low chance late evening for much of
the NC Piedmont.

Still expect rounds of outflow driven storms to develop elsewhere
over the next couple hours as sbCAPE values have risen into the
moderate range per the latest meso-analysis. Soundings show a dry
sub-cloud layer, which will aide in producing stg to svr outflows
and perhaps localized microbursts thru the evening as storms are
additionally enhanced by pockets of h5 vort energy rounding the ulvl
ridge. The overnight period could see lingering -shra and a couple
general tstms banked up across the srn BR with no sigfnt impacts
anticipated.

With little overall pattern change, another round of stg to svr
tstms are in store for tomorrow afternoon and evening, which may
become enhanced by a late day sea-breeze front across the far ern
zones  due to a nrn adjustment of the Atl sfc ridge. Lows tonight
will be held a couple degrees abv normal with sct/bkn debris clouds
possible. Highs Fri will be right arnd normal with seasonal humidity
levels continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thu: The pattern remains largely unchanged for the
weekend, which is perhaps not surprising given our position between
two deep upper anticyclones. Diurnal convection will remain the
driver for PoPs. At the start of the period Friday evening an
ill-defined 500mb trough will be present over the Ohio Valley,
within which GFS and NAM depict a scraggly axis of vorticity.
Weak southerly flow suggests convective initiation is most likely
over the ridgetops, and increases the likelihood of the sea breeze
playing a role in the evening. Proximity to the vort axis suggests
a slight enhancement to overall chances, similar to what happened
in our area Wednesday night. By Sunday, the Bermuda anticyclone
retrogrades slightly and that trough fills to some degree. This
does not appear to have any suppressive effect; lapse rates remain
about the same.  Models continue to depict a weak inverted trough
moving inland from the Atlantic on the southern periphery of
the high, which may have its own enhancing effect; steering flow
becomes more easterly.  Overall will advertise peak aftn/evening
PoPs in the likely range over the mountains and chance range for
the Piedmont. Large sfc-midlevel delta-theta-e values suggest
a continuing daily threat for wet microbursts and locally heavy
rainfall, with flash flood threat exacerbated by slow storm motions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thu: Retrograde of the Bermuda high continues into
Monday, around which time the next midlatitude trough will start
to dig into the eastern CONUS. The moist convergence zone over the
Appalachians could be shunted slightly westward that day, making
it the day we feature the lowest peak diurnal PoPs, though it
still looks unlikely we will see any meaningful subsidence. The
trough will slowly migrate across the OH Valley Tuesday and
onto the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday, trending daily chances
upward again until the trough finally passes (currently expected
Thursday). Temps will remain seasonable. Although storm motion
should increase marginally ahead of the trough, PWATs remain high,
and cannot say that will mitigate the threat of locally excessive
rainfall. Return to a dry and more settled pattern finally would
come late next week if current progs pan out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...VFR conds at all terminals this afternoon
outside of possible temporary restrictions due to showers and
thunderstorms into the late evening. Due to prolonged cloudiness at
KHKY, instability may be too low for sct tstm coverage so opted for
a VCSH aft 20z. Expect decreasing VSBY at KAVL overnight with
possible dense fog before daybreak thru 14z or so. Winds remain
aligned sw/ly along Atl ridging outside the mtns with possible low-
end gusts this afternoon, while KAVL maintains a s/ly flow thru the
period.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected to persist into
the weekend.  Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in the
mountain valleys and wherever appreciable rain fell the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-050945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Swain-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
542 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the western
Piedmont, southern foothills, and southern mountains of North
Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon
and evening. The main threats from the storms will be gusty winds,
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, small hail, and torrential
downpours. Some of the storms may become severe and produce damaging
wind gusts that will knock down trees and power lines. Localized
flooding cannot be ruled out in places where storms move slowly and
repeatedly. The thunderstorms should diminish gradually during the
mid to late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-501>506-050945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-
542 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern foothills and the
central and northern mountains of North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon
and early evening. The main threats from the storms will be gusty
winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, small hail, and torrential
downpours. Some of the storms may become severe and produce damaging
wind gusts that will knock down trees and power lines. Localized
flooding cannot be ruled out in places where storms move slowly and
repeatedly. The thunderstorms should diminish gradually during the
mid evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is an increased potential for excessive rain on Friday which
will raise the risk of localized flash flooding, especially in
locations that experience rain today.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

NCZ048-049-042015-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-
339 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Madison and
west central Yancey Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Marshall, or 5 miles northeast of Hot Springs, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Faust, Allenstand, Walnut and Wolf Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3595 8256 3601 8246 3596 8241 3581 8273
      3595 8287 3595 8285 3592 8282 3593 8281
      3597 8278 3598 8279 3600 8278 3606 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 232DEG 15KT 3593 8273

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
508 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

SCZ008-013-109-042145-
Cherokee SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-Union SC-
508 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Spartanburg, southwestern Cherokee and northwestern Union Counties
through 545 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Union, or 5 miles west of Jonesville, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pacolet, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills, Croft State Park, Buffalo,
Thicketty, Saratt and Pauline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 8173 3479 8191 3505 8176 3490 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 214DEG 14KT 3480 8177

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ018-026-SCZ104-042145-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-
513 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Franklin, Stephens and southwestern Oconee Counties through 545 PM
EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Toccoa, or 4 miles northwest of Avalon, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Westminster, Martin, Avalon, Gumlog, Boydville, Eastanolee
and Oakway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8339 3472 8328 3476 8320 3463 8297
      3436 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 214DEG 14KT 3453 8325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH