Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1003 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
As a weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest, there
will be an increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms until
the front crosses our area early Thursday. A brief lull in the
activity is expected late Thursday through Friday morning. A low
pressure system is forecast to approach from the west late Friday
into Saturday providing the opportunity for scattered showers and
storms to the area. Quiet weather is expected from Sunday to the
start of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 am Wednesday: A challenging morning update, as we are
in a moist, and weakly forced air mass, with big questions of
convective trends. Mid and high clouds have really thinned out
across the center of the forecast area on latest VIS imagery,
but clouds will likely increase again from the west from debris
cloudiness associated with convection crossing AL/GA. Based
on slightly less cloud cover at the moment, and temps starting
to warm a little faster than expected, I think the hourly NBM
PoPs may be the way to trend vs the CAMs/HREF. With that said,
confidence is low, and if the HRRR, in particular, is right,
there will be little convection across the southern half of the
FA today. Whatever conveciton does develop today, CAPE looks to
be modest, shear weak, and dCAPE generally below 500 J/kg. All of
this does not scream severe storms. Cannot rule out an isolated
strong to marginally severe storm, but overall, threat looks low
today. Temps were tweaked up a little with latest consensus.

This evening, the various CAMs still hint at a quasi-organized
cluster of storms forming to our west and possibly impacting
portions of the FA, either in the evening or overnight. Still
awaiting all the 12z guidance to come in, but at the moment the
large spread in track and timing of this western activity keeps
confidence very low. No changes to the tonight period PoPs were
made.

Otherwise...similar to yesterday, how the convective picture evolves
through the day is muddied due to uncertainty over how much the
atmosphere will destabilize due to the ongoing clouds. A consensus
of model guidance isn't exactly gung-ho on instability...generally
limiting sbCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon, which is pretty
similar to what was seen yesterday when convective coverage was
not as high as forecast. Having said that, forecast profiles are a
little more moist through a deep layer today, and I do anticipate
we'll see a little more in the way of insolation, which should
support scattered coverage diurnal convection across much of
the area, with perhaps likely coverage across the mtns and upper
Savannah River Valley. Bulk shear remains fairly weak through the
day, so any severe threat should be limited to perhaps a couple
of pulse storms. Max temps should be a couple of degrees or so
warmer than on Tue, or right around normal.

A substantial short wave trough is forecast to pass from the Corn
Belt this morning to the Ohio Valley by late this evening, with an
attendant frontal zone expected to push across our region tonight.
Interaction of this front with strongly unstable air over the TN
Valley should bring convection toward the southern Appalachians
tonight, warranting extension of likely PoPs beyond the typical
diurnal heating cycle along the TN border. East of there, the
nocturnal convective potential becomes more iffy in light of
waning instability and a lack of robust forcing. Nevertheless,
solid chance PoPs appear warranted into the Piedmont through much
of tonight with a continued risk for an isolated severe storm or
two. Min temps will be several degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday: Quiet weather will be in store to
start out the forecast period on Thursday as a frontal boundary
rests southeast of the CFWA. West to northwesterly downsloping flow
will help promote drying behind the front. Expect a very pleasant
day Thursday with low-end breezy conditions as the leading edge
of a surface high pushes in from the west. Temperatures will run
slightly above normal. Surface high quickly slides offshore the
Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday night into Friday. An encroaching
shortwave trough will help shift winds to a southerly component by
Friday afternoon. The aforementioned frontal boundary will induce
warm frontal activation as a result and will lift into the CFWA
by Friday evening. Weak surface lows will ride along the boundary
underneath the shortwave trough and an uptick in moisture from the
top-down will set the stage for increased PoPs Friday evening
through early Saturday. Upper jet divergence and the shortwave axis
will cross the CFWA during this timeframe and should provide at
least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the
end of the forecast period. Temperatures will remain slightly above
normal through the short-term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday: Upper-level trough axis and
attendant low pressure system will shift offshore during the day
Saturday. Dry air will filter into the CFWA from the northwest as
a result. Post-frontal regime will be in store through the rest
of the weekend as an area of high pressure sets up shop across
the region. Temperatures will be near what they should be for
early-mid June. Changes begin to take place starting early next
week as a potent upper-level ridge (590+ dm) propagates eastward
from the central CONUS and gradually sets up shop across the
Mid-South by D6/D7. Expect deep layer warming to take place as
a result, which is highlighted in the ensemble members from the
GFS and ECMWF. Confidence is too low for much of a PoP mention
during the extended period. Thus, temperatures will become very
warm to hot by the end of the period as values will be 5 to 10+
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: It's looking increasingly likely that morning
restrictions in fog and low stratus will be confined to very
localized, non-TAF sites this morning as saturation of the lower
levels is now in a race with the rising sun/increasing heating.
Still can't completely rule out a brief cig or visby restriction
this morning, especially at KAND/KAVL/KHKY, and did include a tempo
for an IFR cig at KAVL through 13Z.

The potential for convection is expected to ramp up during the
afternoon and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes. At this time,
solid scattered convective coverage is expected, but this will
depend largely upon the degree of instability. Higher-than-currently
forecast levels of instability would likely yield numerous coverage
of showers and storms and a stronger TAF mention, but for now
Prob30s and VCSH/VCTS should suffice at all sites. The convective
potential will extend into the overnight. In fact, chances may
actually increase tonight as an upper disturbance and associated
frontal zone pass through the region. Low cloud development is
looking more likely tonight as moisture remains plentiful in the
vicinity of the front. MVFR cigs are advertised at most sites
between 06-12Z. Winds will generally be S/SW at 5-10 kts through the
period, shifting to the W/NW after 12Z Thu.

Outlook: Scattered diurnal convection is expected each day with
the greatest chances on Friday and Saturday. Mountain valley fog
will be possible each morning with patchy fog possible elsewhere,
especially where rain falls the previous day. Morning stratocu
restrictions will be possible as well.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
629 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-091030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
629 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be in store
today and tonight. A couple of these storms may become severe, with
damaging winds, isolated large hail, and cloud- to- ground lightning
being the primary threats. A secondary threat for localized flash
flooding will be possible in locations that receive multiple rounds
of showers and storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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