Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively dry high pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. A
subtropical airmass will spread over the area Thursday, bringing hot
weather to the area which will last into the weekend, along with
seasonable chances for showers and storms.  Scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend
ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Monday: Isolated to scattered convection has
developed ahead of the cold front crossing the area. Best coverage
still expected over NC and the eastern Upstate. Can't rule out a
strong to possibly even severe storm, mainly over and east of the I-
77 corridor, but chances are better to our east. Convection moves
out of the area by early evening. Gusty west to NW winds expected
until early evening when speeds drop off and direction turns more
northerly. Skies clear through the evening as well. Can't rule out
some mountain valley fog, especially in the Little TN Valley.
However, chances very low elsewhere. Lows will be slightly below
normal.

N to NW winds and drier dew points expected Tuesday as high pressure
builds in from the west. No convection expected either. Highs will
be up to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 PM Monday: The middle part of the week still looks
relatively quiet across the area as we should be underneath a
quasi-zonal flow through Wednesday. Sfc high pressure should move
off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night, beginning the warming
trend. Thus, our near normal low temps Wednesday morning will be
the last we will see for a few days. Highs Wednesday will be on
the order of ten degrees above normal, and Wednesday night will
remain warm. The wildcard in the fcst will be the possibility of MCS
remnants that could track eastward and reach the fcst area before
dissipating late Wednesday or early Thursday. This will mainly be a
concern over the mountains, but not a very great one at this stage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 203 PM Monday: Still looking like July for the end of the
week as the upper pattern amplifies with a ridge on the East Coast
supporting a Bermuda High beginning on Thursday. A sfc boundary
strung out west-to-east across the central Appalachians might
just be close enough to help trigger/organize a few storms across
the nrn part of the fcst area during the afternoon/evening on
Thursday, but don't bet on it right now. Instead, this day should
be our first of the year with many temps reaching the lower 90s
outside of the mtns. The upper ridge amplifies quickly Thursday
night into Friday. The ensuing deep warm layer aloft will not be
conducive to any deeper convection on Friday because the moisture
will not have come up from the Gulf yet, so expect Friday to be
rain-free. Some locations might make it to the middle 90s. The
weekend looks much more unsettled, but confidence on which day
might be the more active of the two is sketchy, and it will depend
on the timing of a front being driven eastward by a short wave
moving through the trof to our west. The ECMWF is more suggestive
of Saturday, while the GFS is more Sunday. Either way, we may find
ourselves at the southern end of a severe thunderstorm risk one
or both days with modest buoyancy and shear, but a cold front to
trigger/organize the storms. Temps will be mid-summer-like over
the weekend, but the passage of the cold front, probably Sunday,
will knock them back down to around normal for Monday. Assuming
the pattern stays progressive, that would mean Monday would be
quiet with high pressure moving past to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated to sct convection has formed ahead
of a cold front crossing the area. Have TEMPOs in place for TSRA and
vrb gusty winds based on radar and latest guidance trends. Winds
turn NW behind FROPA with maybe some lingering gusts which end by
early evening as winds turn more northerly. SCT Cu and BKN Ci
diminish this evening with clear skies expected overnight. Can't
rule out some mountain fog in the Little TN valley again, but don't
expect any at KAVL. Clear skies with N to NW wind expected Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry conditions continue into Wednesday. Summerlike
conditions expected through Friday, with slowly increasing chances
of afternoon convection and nocturnal fog/stratus occurring wherever
rain has fallen the previous afternoon.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RWH

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