Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will bring cooler and drier air to the region
through the weekend. Gradually increasing moisture is expected next
week. Other than a brief warm-up early next week, temperatures are
and expected to remain cooler than normal for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday: Despite drier air moving into the area
behind the departing cold front, low level moisture lingers. This
has lead to weak instability across NC and moderate instability over
the Upstate and NE GA. A weak short wave dropping into the upper
trough over the area will help isolated convection to develop given
the moisture and instability trends. Coverage should favor the Blue
Ridge areas of NC, SC, and GA along with the Lakelands, but isolated
convection can't be ruled out anywhere until loss of heating. Strong
to severe storms seem unlikely, but given the high DCAPE values over
the area, can't rule one out.

Low level moisture lingers along and near the Blue Ridge. Developing
easterly upslope flow could lead to low clouds overnight. Fog is
unlikely except maybe in the normally more foggy locations. Lows
should end up about 5 degrees below normal.

Even the low level moisture moves out on Saturday and cooler and
drier high pressure finally builds more fully into the area. That
said, there may be enough moisture and weak instability for isolated
showers over the Smokies. Highs will be about 5 degrees below normal
with dew points dropping into the 50s across much of the area
leading to a refreshingly low humidity day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Sunday with extensive upper ridging still dominating the western
2/3 of the CONUS while fairly deep/broad upper trofing remains
over the mid-Atlantic states. Over the next couple of days, the
trof axis is expected to lift northeast of New England, yet upper
trofing will remain largely in place across the region thru the
end of the period late Monday. At the sfc, the center of broad
high pressure will be translating eastward and over the Atlantic
Coast as the period begins. By late Sunday, another cold front
will approach our fcst area from the NW and bring an increase in
moisture with it. The frontal bndy is not expected to actually
move thru our CWA until late Monday as the period is ending.
As for the sensible fcst, both PoPs and QPF have been increased
late Sunday thru the end of the period late Monday. However, QPF
is still not expected to be excessive and should not cause any
significant hydro issues. Temps should remain just below normal
both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Friday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z
on Tuesday with broad upper trofing still in place over the
Eastern CONUS and extensive ridging to the west. Over the next
24 to 48 hrs, the upper trof is expected to morph into a large,
closed upper low and then expand further westward. By the end
of the period late next week, the trof is expected to cover
roughly the eastern half of the CONUS. At the sfc, a weak cold
front will be moving east of our CWA as the period begins. In
the front's wake, weak high pressure tries to spread back into
the area from the north, however the latest long-range guidance
has it making less southward progress into our area. At the same
time, the synoptic pattern is looking more chaotic/uncertain
with the operational models trying to develop multiple sfc lows
over the Southeast and then move them eastward and off the SE
Coast. Overall, the pattern is trending more active with the
above-mentioned high not exerting as much influence over our
area with solid-chance PoPs each day thru day 7. Temps are also
trending cooler thru most of the period, with highs expected to
start out about a category below normal on Tues, and remain 1
to 2 categories below normal thru day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: SCT to occasionally BKN low VFR cumulus
will be over the area this afternoon and early evening. Isolated
showers and possibly a TSRA will move south across the area. Have
VCSH in for now and can amend of cells threaten the TAF sites.
Chance of convection ends this evening with loss of heating and
deeper dry air moving in. There could be some lingering low level
moisture overnight. This and developing easterly upslope flow could
create low clouds over portions of the mountains and foothills. For
now, have gone with FEW low clouds, but this will need to be
monitored as well. Outside of the dissipation of any low clouds
forming overnight, VFR conditions expected Saturday. NE wind,
potentially with low end gusts, continues into the evening before
dropping in speed. Low end gusts possible with mixing by mid morning
Saturday. KAVL will see N wind with low end gusts this afternoon.
Light N wind overnight, then S wind on Saturday.

Outlook: Moisture slowly returns Sunday into early next week. Expect
diurnal convective chances to slowly increase as well. Fog and low
stratus may develop each morning in the mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-501-503-505-131100-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
430 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern
foothills of North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-063>065-068>072-082-
502-504-506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-131100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
430 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the western
Piedmont of North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon
and early evening. The main threats will be from cloud-to-ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1243 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDLAND                 35.23N 80.50W
08/10/2022                   CABARRUS           NC   PUBLIC

            A REPORT OF TREES DOWN IN THE MIDLAND AREA
            ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

DEO

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