Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will slowly weaken tonight as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. The front will move into the
area on Thursday and settle south of the region by Friday, with an
additional reinforcing cold front moving through from the north by
Friday night. Cooler and drier high pressure will arrive for most of
the weekend, but with moisture returning early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: Convective activity is still expected
to gradually spread eastward over the next few hours with new cells
likely to fire off over the higher terrain and foothills as well.
Coverage looks best across western NC, with lower coverage across
western SC and NE GA. WPC has the mountains in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall today, with a marginal risk east of the mountains
for the majority of the fcst area. This makes sense as 0-6 km bulk
shear values will be around 5 knots or less leading to slow storm
motion. Heavy downpours that sit or train over an area for an
extended period of time have the potential to produce a localized
flooding risk. The overall severe threat today looks similar to what
we have seen the last few days, low with isolated severe storms
possible. With SBCAPE values ranging from 1000-1200 J/kg, damaging
wind gusts will be the main potential threat with any severe storm
that develops. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will remain centered
over the western Atlantic while a quasi-stationary frontal bndy
persists to our NW. This pattern will allow SWLY low-lvl flow to
continue, priming the western Carolinas and NE Georgia with ample
moisture thru the near-term period. Tonight another round of convection
could make a run for the mtns ahead of the FROPA. Activity looks
to impact the NC mtns mainly after midnight, possibly lasting into
daybreak Thursday. So, maintained chance PoPs into tonight across
the mtns. Expect another round of fog and low stratus across the NC
mtns and foothills. Lows will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Wednesday: A trof across the Great Lakes and
Northeastern states will amplify late in the week pushing a cold
front through the area. This front will lead to the chance of
showers and thunderstorms well into the night on Thursday night,
possibly lingering into early Friday in spots. Once the front clears
the area on Friday, expect a slightly cooler and much more
comfortable air mass for the weekend. Expect lows in the 50s
Saturday morning in the mountains and in the lower to middle 60s in
the Piedmont areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Wednesday: The Northeastern trof will continue to
amplify through this period leading to northwest mid level flow
through the period. There will be some energy moving through the
trof with associated cold fronts passing through the area. This will
lead to a chance of showers and storms early next week, but overall
moisture appears limited with this system. Temperatures should be
near normal to a little below normal for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expecting another day of mostly diurnally-
driven showers and thunderstorms, with the best coverage across
KAVL, KHKY and KCLT. I kept TEMPOs going for TSRA and associated
restrictions at all terminals from roughly 20 to 24z today, with
some lingering VCSH after 24z. High resolution models continue to
hint at SHRA chances sticking around across the mtns overnight and
into the morning Thursday, so I kept a VCSH mention at KAVL until
08z. I also included PROB30s for either SHRA or TSRA for Thursday
as a cold front tracks towards the area. Winds should be a bit
stronger this aftn and early evening compared to yesterday with
low-end gusts possible. Confidence remains too low to mention in
TAFs though. Wind direction will be generally SWLY to WSWLY east
of the mtns and NWLY at KAVL for the period.

Outlook: Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in the mtn
valleys and wherever appreciable rain fell the previous day. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage, and associated restrictions, will increase
along a cold front Thursday into early Friday. Drier conditions are
expected this weekend behind the front.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...AP/JPT
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ101>103-
110830-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-
Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and foothills of
western North Carolina, the northeast Georgia mountains, and the
mountains of Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon and evening. The primary threats with these
thunderstorms will be localized flash flooding due to very heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes. The flooding threat will develop in any locations impacted
by multiple rounds of slowly moving thunderstorms. A few
thunderstorms could briefly become severe, with damaging wind gusts
the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-
104>109-110830-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon and evening. The primary threats with these
thunderstorms will be very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. An isolated flash
flooding threat may develop in any locations impacted by multiple
rounds of slowly moving thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms could
briefly become severe, with damaging wind gusts the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

NCZ056-068-069-502-504-101945-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Catawba NC-
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Catawba,
northwestern Lincoln, southeastern Caldwell, northwestern Cleveland
and southeastern Burke Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Lenoir to 7 miles west of
Hickory to 14 miles northwest of Shelby. Movement was northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, St. Stephens, Longview, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Icard,
Hildebran, Connelly Springs, Rutherford College and Rhodhiss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8134 3581 8133 3580 8134 3580 8128
      3575 8125 3551 8144 3545 8170 3548 8170
      3571 8155 3584 8153 3586 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 229DEG 16KT 3582 8147 3571 8146 3547 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

SCZ009-014-101945-
York SC-Chester SC-
315 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Chester
and southeastern York Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Rock Hill, or 4 miles southwest of Lesslie, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Hill, Lesslie, Catawba, Richburg and Edgemoor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8088 3487 8088 3484 8087 3483 8090
      3479 8088 3475 8088 3472 8103 3489 8112
      3500 8090 3499 8089 3497 8088 3496 8087
      3492 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 247DEG 15KT 3484 8100

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
352 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

NCZ036-056-102030-
Iredell NC-Catawba NC-
352 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Catawba and
central Iredell Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles east of Hickory to 5 miles south of
Newton. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Statesville, Newton, Hickory, St. Stephens, Conover, Maiden,
Troutman, Claremont, Catawba and Lake Norman State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 8082 3568 8077 3567 8077 3559 8075
      3557 8131 3577 8130 3580 8113 3579 8113
      3578 8111 3580 8108 3581 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 259DEG 13KT 3576 8125 3560 8124

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

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