Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A typical summertime pattern continues as the subtropical ridge in
the western Atlantic persists through the first half of the week.
Daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue with the best chance for activity across
the mountains. A cold front will approach the area from the
northwest on Wednesday, tracking across the Carolinas on Thursday
into Friday. This front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
around through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across the
area. Not expecting much of a severe threat over the next couple
hrs, yet a couple taller storms across the NC mtns may need an SPS
issuance for wind. Stronger stroms are possible latter this
afternoon. The hydro threat remains as storms are not moving much. A
few advisories and/or flash flood warnings may be needed thru this
evening, esp across the mtns, as storms likely anchor along ridge
tops.

Lingering cloud cover shud make for a low-end dense fog threat most
areas once again overnight. However, the mtn valleys will be under
the gun for dense fog formation before daybreak, esp with the added
widespread precip this evening. Cloudiness and high moisture levels
will also hold min temps up a few degrees from normal. On Sun, the
overall pattern does not change much and the area could once again
be in store for flooding concerns. Mainly across the mtns, yet the
non-mtn soil moiture levels have been increasing making runoff more
of a potential problem. Soundings look similar to today, yet mid-
level dry air increases, which may help generate stronger to severe
cells with damaging winds the main threat. Max temps will remain
close to normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday: The overall pattern will remain fairly
stagnant through the short term.  A weak upper level low will
meander near the northeastern Gulf Coast, stranded between a
climatological Atlantic subtropical ridge and the heat ridge over
the Rockies, while the next shortwave trough approaches the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes.  This weakness aloft will help to keep
our thicknesses and, consequently, our surface temperatures fairly
seasonable through Wednesday, with a very slight increase in high
temperatures each day as the subtropical ridge retrogrades westward
and our low-level flow veers SWly during the first half of the work
week. Each day, scattered to numerous coverage of diurnal showers
and thunderstorms is expected across the mountains and foothills,
with decreasing PoPs to the east towards the more stable airmass
over the Piedmont, as the subtropical ridge helps to suppress
some activity.  The ridge will exert its greatest influence on
Tuesday with relatively lower PoPs over the forecast area but as we
head into Wednesday, the next shortwave trough will lower heights
aloft and steepen lapse rates, increasing PoPs in advance of the
next cold front.  Expect SBCAPE values each day to peak between
1000-2000 J/kg and given the pattern aloft, bulk shear values will
remain anemic, generally below 10kts.  Therefore, organized storms
are not a noteworthy concern.  Given the weak flow and seasonable
PWs, the typical threat of locally heavy rain/isolated flooding
will remain in place through the period, especially over the
mountains where convective coverage will be greatest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday: The next focused weather maker will be a
shortwave trough and attendant cold front that enters our area
on Thursday, and the associated forcing will support numerous to
potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide as the
front drifts south across the area late Thursday.  Deterministic
guidance is in fairly good agreement about the timing of the FroPa
during the day on Thursday and during the period of peak diurnal
heating, but there is plenty of time to see the guidance shift
and evolve.  There is not a strong heavy rain signal in the pattern
so QPF is fairly benign despite the increase in coverage and there
is no need to deviate from expecting a seasonable isolated heavy
rain threat at this time.  Bulk shear will increase modestly to
15-25kts due to the increasing flow aloft associated with the
trough, and this could support an isolated severe thunderstorm
or two, but overall the threat is low.  Expect temperatures on
Thursday to top out 1-4 degrees below normal with the increase in
cloud cover and precipitation coverage.

Behind the front, we may actually have a legitimate period
of below-normal temperatures as height falls support lower
thicknesses behind the trough axis and an upper-level closed low
dropping into New England amplifies a developing longwave trough
over the eastern ConUS.  High temperatures may remain about 2-5
degrees below normal on Friday and Saturday in a NW flow regime.
Low-level flow may stay northerly through the end of the extended
and support a notable improvement in humidity as dewpoints drops
into the lower to mid-60s. The airmass will not be completely dry,
but lower PoPs are currently forecasted given the somewhat more
stable regime in place.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Moist profiles and light southerly boundary
layer flow will yield developing and persistent MVFR-level bases
through much of the morning hours, with IFR to LIFR conditions from
KAVL to KHKY. Slow lifting and scattering of the morning ceilings
will eventually permit instability to bubble up this afternoon, with
coverage growing more quickly in the mountains where forcing will be
better, but with scattered activity also across the foothills and
Piedmont where SBCAPE values will be higher. Will feature PROB30
TSRA throughout for the peak heating hours. Light winds will be a
bit variable, but mostly southerly at less than 10 kt during peak
afternoon mixing. Coverage should wane quickly this evening, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out overnight in the continued
upslope flow in the moist airmass. Restrictions are likely to return
during the early morning hours Sunday.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern of scattered diurnal showers
and thunderstorms is expected to persist through the late weekend
and into early/middle next week. Fog and low stratus may develop
each morning in the mountain valleys and wherever appreciable rain
fell the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-070945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across the North Carolina mountains. Main potential impacts
are cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours
leading to the potential for localized flash flooding. This is
especially true for areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday.
A few strong storms are possible. An isolated severe storm or two
cannot be entirely ruled out. The main potential impact with any
severe storm that develops would be microbursts leading to damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-070945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Main potential impacts are cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours leading to the potential for localized
flash flooding. This is especially true for areas along and west of
Interstate 85 and for areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday.
A few strong storms are possible. An isolated severe storm or two
cannot be entirely ruled out. The main potential impact with any
severe storm that develops would be microbursts leading to damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

NCZ036-056-069>071-062030-
Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Catawba, eastern Lincoln, south central Iredell, northwestern
Mecklenburg and northeastern Gaston Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Huntersville, or near Westport, moving north at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntersville, Cornelius, Mt Holly, Westport, Lake Norman, Denver,
Ramsey Creek Park, Maiden, Davidson and Northwest Charlotte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 8084 3528 8104 3558 8120 3566 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 162DEG 6KT 3548 8099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

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