Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

496 
WWUS52 KGSP 031738
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
138 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

NCC121-031748-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-220503T1800Z/
Mitchell NC-
138 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the county. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3614 8182 3611 8181 3611 8179 3593 8162
      3585 8198 3588 8199 3589 8198 3591 8198
      3593 8200 3599 8202 3615 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 233DEG 11KT 3595 8189 

$$

NCC011-023-027-111-031800-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-220503T1800Z/
McDowell NC-Caldwell NC-Avery NC-Burke NC-
138 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL...SOUTHERN AVERY
AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

At 138 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Newland, or near Linville Falls, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Crossnore, Grandfather Mountain State Park, Linville Falls, B.R.
Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Edgemont, Ingalls, Altamont,
Pineola, Collettsville and Ashford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8182 3611 8181 3611 8179 3593 8162
      3585 8198 3588 8199 3589 8198 3591 8198
      3593 8200 3599 8202 3615 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 233DEG 11KT 3595 8189 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1014 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect an active weather pattern to continue with a series of
frontal systems crossing the area through the end of the week.
Above normal temperatures, with mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the week, with an uptick in
coverage expected with a strong front on Friday. Cooler temperatures
and diminishing shower chances are expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Tuesday: Lower clouds and patchy drizzle likely in
the Smokies and portions of southern NC mountains. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies elsewhere as temperatures continue to surge this
morning. The forecast remains on track with only a small tweak to
PoPs for this afternoon.

The atmos remains quite warm today as an upper ridge dominates early
on before shifting east during the afternoon. This will allow a h5
s/w to push into the wrn zones, which will help trigger showers and
deeper convec. The various hires guidance is generally on board with
keeping the best chance for stronger cells across the NC zones,
mainly the nrn mtns and fthills and into the NW Piedmont this
afternoon. However, a couple WRF solns show areas arnd CLT under the
gun for a line of deeper convec by late afternoon. In any case, bulk
shear will be quite weak with values less than 25 kts, while the
atmos remains uncapped and non-explosive thru the afternoon due to
quickly warming sfc temps and dewpoints. So, not expecting a sigfnt
severe threat with stg outflows and small, maybe large, hail being
the main threats. With continued llvl waa flow, afternoon highs will
have no problem reaching the m80s non/mtns and arnd 80 F across the
mtn valleys.

Scattered showers and a few tstms will likely continue across the
mtns overnight as prefrontal forcing moves in and llvl moist adv
remains in place. Expect mins to remain elevated within a moist
environ once again with readings in the low to mid 60s non/mtns and
near 60 F across the mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 am Tuesday: Frontal zone and associated weak short wave
trough aloft will move steadily across the forecast area throughout
Wednesday, with plenty of insolation expected to allow for moderate
afternoon destabilization ahead of the front. The front will not be
especially well-forced, especially as it becomes increasingly
oriented in a zonal direction. Nevertheless, ample buoyancy should
allow for solid scattered coverage of mostly diurnal convection,
with generally 40-50 PoPs advertised across the forecast area. Wind
shear will again be marginal for substantial convective organization
(generally around 25 kts), but isolated weakly rotating cells and/or
small clusters could yield a handful of damaging wind gust and/or
large hail reports.

Drier/more stable air briefly filters into the CWA behind the front
Wed night into early Thu...until the boundary returns north as a
warm front later Thu in response to the next cyclone moving
northeast from the southern Great Plains. Resultant late day
destabilization and frontal lift could yield isolated to widely
scattered deep convection by the end of the day, especially across
western areas, with another risk for isolated severe storms.
Convective potential will persist to some degree into Thu night,
with the better chances existing late in the period across the NC
mountains as cold frontal zone approaches from the TN Valley. Temps
cool slightly Thu, but generally remain well above climo through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 am Tuesday: Cold front accompanied by rather impressive
deep layer forcing associated with deepening cyclone passing from
the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic will cross the region
Friday. A consensus of global model guidance is increasing our
confidence that the front will sweep through the forecast area
coincident with peak insolation/instability. Numerous to perhaps
widespread coverage of convection (PoPs 60-80%) along with moderate
instability and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear should create a
notable uptick in risk of severe storms above that of the short
term period.

Convective chances dwindle late Fri into Fri night as the front
sweeps east of the area. However, upper low will transit the region
Saturday through early Sunday, with speed maxima digging west of the
low center. This could yield scattered showers across the forecast
area, especially Sat afternoon. Precip chances then steadily
diminish to slight chance early Sunday, then to less than slight
chance by Monday. One more day of above-climo temperatures is
expected Fri/Fri night, with near, or even below normal temps
expected through the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds will continue through the early
afternoon hours. Winds have become more sw/ly during the late
morning with low-end gusts likely during the afternoon outside the
mtn valleys. Convective activity is more probable across the nrn FA
as h5 s/w crosses into a destabilizing atmos. Have KCLT, KAVL, and
KHKY as the most likely terminals for -TSRA and associated
restrictions thru the afternoon, with a VCSH mention with no
restrictions for now at Upstate terminals, although isol tstms are
possible across the Piedmont by the later afternoon.

Outlook: Aftn/evening convection and associated restrictions along
with isolated morning fog/low cigs is expected thru Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC/SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
456 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-040900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
456 AM EDT Tue May 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with
the better coverage likely across North Carolina. Some of these
storms may become quite strong and produce hail, strong winds, and
cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1240 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     HAIL             5 NW FAIRVIEW           35.57N 82.46W
05/03/2022  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE LITTLE CEDAR
            MOUNTAIN AREA. ALSO A WIND GUST THAT BLEW
            DOWN SOME TWIGS AND SMALL LIMBS.

&&

DEO