Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will be breezy today, but not gusty like this past weekend.
Surface high pressure will lead to continued dry conditions through
late Wednesday. A warm front will lift north over the area Tuesday
into Wednesday allowing relative humidity to increase. A cold front
will cross the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday leading to
widespread rain chances. Dry weather returns Thursday night into the
the first part of the weekend before a low pressure system
potentially brings more rain to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 am: Upper trough axis will remain along the East Coast
through today, with the trough finally moving away from the Conus as
a strong short wave trough/compact upper low digs into the northern
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Upper ridge across the central Conus
will also push slide east through the period, supporting sprawling/
dry surface high pressure ridge from the upper Midwest through the
Southeast. Pressure gradient between this ridge and lingering lee
trough should yield occasionally gusty winds across the mountains
through much of the period, with some spotty gustiness likely
developing outside the mountains this afternoon. The gusty winds
combined with continued very dry conditions will yield another round
of enhanced fire danger this afternoon, albeit not quite as dire as
yesterday. See the Fire Wx discussion for additional info. Max temps
today are expected to average a couple of degrees above climo. Large
diurnal temp ranges are expected to continue in light of the dry air
mass, with min temps tonight expected to be around 5 degrees below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...At the beginning of the forecast period an
upper-level trough will be pushing off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Upper-
level ridging will push towards the East Coast Tuesday evening and
will remain in place through the end of the short term forecast
period. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered over the Ohio
Valley region early Tuesday morning before tracking southeast across
the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
This sfc high will push offshore Tuesday evening and will remain
offshore the Southeast Coast through the rest of the short term
forecast period. Meanwhile, a warm front will track northward out of
the Deep South Tuesday, tracking over the CWA Tuesday evening into
early Wednesday. Despite sfc high pressure in place, this warm front
may have just enough moisture to produce a few isolated light
showers across the western zones on Tuesday. However, CAMS and
global models are not in agreement regarding PoPs. The last few HRRR
runs are the most bullish and have scattered light activity pushing
across the western zones. The rest of the CAMS show very isolated
light activity, if even that, for Tuesday. So, confidence will
remain low regarding if light showers will occur across the western
zones on Tuesday. Went ahead and kept NBM PoPs which lead to a dry
forecast. Dry conditions can be expected Wednesday as the warm front
will be well to our north by then. High temps on Tuesday will be 5
to 10 degrees below normal ahead of the warm frontal boundary. Lows
Tuesday night will be a few degrees above normal thanks to
increasing cloud cover. High temps will rebound to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal on Wednesday thanks to WAA behind the warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Rounds of active weather return during the
extended forecast period. At the beginning of the forecast period,
upper-level riding will still be in place across the East Coast.
Ridging pushes off the East Coast overnight Wednesday into daybreak
Thursday as an upper-level trough tracks out of the central CONUS
towards the eastern CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front will track
across the CWA overnight Wednesday into Thursday increasing rain
chances. Models are in good agreement regarding the timing of PoPs
during this time frame. For this reason, have PoPs ramping up
overnight from east to west, with categorical PoPs by early Thursday
morning. Have PoPs ramping down from west to east as the FROPA
progresses east Thursday. Precip should taper by Thursday evening
for the entire CWA. Thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon and early evening hours as daytime heating increases. With
the majority of the CWA seeing the front tracking overhead during
the overnight/early morning hours, when instability is not at its
peak, the severe weather potential looks limited. The extreme
eastern zones of the CWA, east of I-77, have the best potential to
see scattered strong to severe storms as the front will be pushing
across these zones when diurnal instability is the greatest. GEFS
ensembles generally show SBCAPE values around 500 J/kg or lower on
Thursday. Global models are in pretty decent agreement with the
ensembles regarding SBCAPE values. Ensembles and global models both
depict 60 to 80 knots of shear on Thursday. The Storm Prediction
Center Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook grazes our far eastern CWA with
a slight risk. This puts the bulk of the severe weather risk east of
the CWA. So, forecast trends will need to be monitored regarding the
severe weather potential on Thursday, but for now the overall threat
looks to remain to our east. Low temps Wednesday night will be 15 to
20 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover and precip. High temps
on Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees above climo.

The upper-level trough will finally lifts north of the Carolinas
early Friday with the cold front offshore the East Coast. Upper-
level flow will then flatten out becoming quasi-zonal through the
rest of the extended forecast period. At the sfc, high pressure will
filter in Friday into Saturday leading to drier conditions. Rain
chances could increase again late Saturday into Sunday as a low
pressure system tracks north towards the forecast area. However,
with the GFS keeping the moisture well to our south leading to a dry
forecast, and the ECMWF and Canadian streaming the moisture into the
CWA, leading to a wet forecast, confidence remains low regarding the
sensible weather this weekend. For this reason, capped PoPs to chance
across the area late Saturday into Sunday. Low temps will be near to
above climo throughout the extended. High temps will be above normal
Friday and Saturday becoming slightly below normal Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR will persist through the period, with
occasional SCT/perhaps BKN mid-level clouds being the only
impediment to SKC through at least this evening. Clouds in the
050-100 range may become more common between 06-12Z Tuesday.
Therefore, mainly a wind forecast this period, with gusty N/NW winds
expected at KAVL for much of the day. Other sites should see
primarily light/vrbl winds early this morning, with speeds steadily
increasing from the W/NW after sunrise, becoming gusty again during
the afternoon. Winds will diminish again this evening, becoming more
N or even NE with time.

Outlook: Generally dry and VFR conditions are expected to continue
into the middle of the week. A weak warm front may bring lower
clouds and spotty precip to the mountains early Tuesday. A cold
front brings the potential for convection and associated
restrictions Thursday. Clearing expected behind the front Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions will continue today, with minimum afternoon RH
again expected to range from 10 to 20% in all areas. Winds and gusts
will not be quite as strong as on Sunday, especially outside the
mountains; certainly below Red Flag criteria, but based upon the
very dry air mass, very dry fuels, and some ongoing wildfires, NC/SC
land managers requested a Fire Danger Statement for later today. An
FDS is more of a no-brainer across NE GA where only one
meteorological criteria is necessary.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AP
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-290800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
349 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

West to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30
mph, combined with minimum relative humidity values in the 10 to
20 percent range and very dry vegetation will result in another
afternoon with enhanced fire danger across the region.

Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether
you can burn. If you do burn, use extreme caution since fires can
quickly get out of hand under these conditions.

Lane