Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
658 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Impacts from Tropical Storm Nicole will be felt across the area
through the day today. A strong cold front tracks across the area
late tonight through Saturday ushering in much colder air and drier
conditions Saturday night into early next week. A fast-moving
low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday, bringing some
precipitation chances back to the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 651 AM EST Friday: The center of Nicole was located over
central GA, making relatively quick northward progress toward the
fcst area. Several areas of rain were moving toward the NW and
across the fcst area in the strengthening cyclonic and upslope
flow ahead of the center, so needless to say a categorical
precip prob is warranted and precip is guaranteed. All that's
left to fill in are some of the details for how this will play
out as the system undergoes extratropical transition as it races
northeastward across the fcst area through this afternoon. Heavy
rain, isolated tornadoes, and strong wind gusts are all still in
play. A broad area of showers with embedded heavy rain in a plume
of rich tropical moisture will continue moving upslope as it also
translates northward through the morning mainly across western
NC. This batch of precip will serve to further saturate the soil
and perhaps set the stage for increased flash flood potential later
this morning. As the center of the remnant circulation moves in this
morning, the potential for continued upslope flow against the Blue
Ridge will result in continued heavy rain potential that should
push the QPF into the 3-5 inch range in some spots. However, the
QPF remains modest in the rain-shadowed areas of the NC mountains
and to the east over the Piedmont of the Carolinas, the latter
due to a lull this morning afforded by the passage of a dry slot
already visible on radar imagery moving in from the south. Think
the ongoing Flood Watch is well placed and there are no plans
to expand. The aforementioned dry slot will serve to increase
convective instability later this morning as it moves northward
mainly up the I-77 corridor. Even the more modest GFS uncovers
sfc-based CAPE on the order of 500-750 J/kg to the east of I-77
to go along with shear above 40 kt, which will be sufficient to
raise an isolated tornado threat through early afternoon. The
00Z HREF kept the updraft helicity streaks just to the east of
the fcst area, but the trend was westward. Recent runs of the
HRRR show some isolated cells that appear curiously similar to
mini-supercells developing and moving quickly NNE in the dry slot
this afternoon across the western Piedmont, altho that model does
not show any updraft helicity streaks with them. All this is to
suggest that the Slight Risk is good call and we will have to keep
an eye on any stronger cell in the environment over the Piedmont
today. The SPC has recently put parts of the Charlotte metro area in
a Tornado Watch thru 20Z and that is probably the course of least
regret. Finally, the wind. Model guidance for the most part keeps
the stronger gust potential over the higher terrain. Gusts outside
the mtns are expected to stay below advisory criteria, but strong
enough to possibly blow down some trees where the root systems
are weakened by saturated soil. The consensus among neighbors to
the northeast is to leave the Advisory alone for now. Temps will
remain fairly steady today.

With the system pulling away rapidly this evening, precip probs will
end from the southwest and pare back to the TN border, where a small
precip chance will be maintained overnight with westerly upslope
flow taking over at least briefly. Low temps will remain mild.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday: A strong cold front will briefly stall along
the western edge of the Southern Appalachians early Saturday, as
a long wave trough deepens over the mid-MS Valley region. A vort
lobe will lift out of the trough axis and cross the forecast area
during the day Saturday, bringing a brief shot of showers from
the west. Temps look warm enough that any precip that affects the
NC mountains will be rain initially. However, CAA ramps up during
the day, and snow levels may start to fall by early evening along
the TN border. By that time, moisture will be dwindling, and any
snow showers should be isolated with little to no accums. Precip
chances will remain low east of the mountains due to the westerly
downslope flow. Highs will range from the mid 50s along the TN
border to the lower 70s southeast of the I-85 corridor.

The cold front will push east of the area Saturday night, and cold,
dry high pressure quickly builds into the area under a passing
upper trough. Skies should be mostly sunny, and winds will become
light. But it will feel chilly, as highs will be 15-20 deg colder
than Saturday's readings, well below normal. The center of the
high will settle over the OH Valley to the Central Appalachians,
resulting in good radiational cooling conditions for our area. Lows
will be mainly in the 20s to lower 30s, with some teens possible
in the Northern Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 pm EST Thursday: A southern stream trough will eject out
of the Four Corners region Monday, losing amplitude as it approaches
our area. It still looks to tap into a little Gulf moisture and
bring a quick shot of precip to our area Tuesday. The deterministic
models are in pretty good agreement on this wave, so PoPs have been
bumped up into the likely range. The onset timing of the precip
looks to be close to 12z Tuesday, which means some wintry mix of
p-types may be possible in the high terrain at onset. With that
said, strong WAA, with the 850 mb low center staying to our north,
should bring thicknesses above freezing pretty much everywhere by
Tuesday aftn. There will be some CAD in place, that could lock in
sub-freezing temps near the escarpment in the northern mountains
and foothills. Will put in a little mix of freezing rain and snow
in these areas. The precip moving in with chilly temps and the CAD
will result in highs staying the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of
the area.

The low pressure system will exit off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12z
Wednesday, with dry air quickly returning to the forecast area. The
European is moister with NW flow behind the system, and suggests
we could have some NW flow snow showers into Wednesday. But the
GFS and NBM is dry. Cold high pressure will build in from the
west. Temps will rebound somewhat, but still well below normal
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread flight restrictions make for
a difficult situation for flying over the next 12-24 hours. The
lowest cloud deck was breaking apart to an extent, with ceiling
variable between LIFR/IFR/MVFR, but expect the IFR/LIFR ceiling
to prevail through the afternoon and into the early evening for
the most part, with some exceptions. Waves of precipitation will
occasionally drop the Vis down into the IFR category as well. As the
center of what remains of Nicole moves up from the south, gusts will
become more frequent and the wind will veer from N/NE to SE this
morning. A dry slot of sorts will move into the eastern zones which
should allow for some improvement at KCLT to MVFR, although if this
happens, instability will increase which will support thunderstorm
development and temporary IFR restrictions. As the center of the
remnants pass across the fcst area, wind will remain gusty and
will veer to S this afternoon and SW this evening, with gusts
diminishing after sunset. LLWS could be a problem at KAVL through
the day. The remnant low moves away quickly this evening allowing
for some rapid improvement overnight Friday/early Saturday morning.

Outlook: Generally improving conditions are expected Friday night
into Saturday morning with predominately VFR conditions likely
for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ010.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ033-049-050-052-053-
     059-062>065-501>507-509.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-068>071-082-501-503-505-507>510.
SC...Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ101>103.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-058-510-SCZ010>012-019-104>109-
121245-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Graham-
Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition to the wind gust potential, widespread heavy rain
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon. Locally heavy rain could result in some minor flooding of
poor drainage areas. Some of the storms could have cloud-to-ground
lightning and torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-052-053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ101>103-121245-
Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ068>070-508-SCZ008-009-013-014-121245-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-York-Union SC-
Chester-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition to the wind gust potential, widespread heavy rain
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through this
morning. Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, with
cloud-to- ground lightning, torrential downpours, and the potential
for an isolated tornado. Locally heavy rain could result in some
minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ057-072-121245-
Rowan-Cabarrus-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Widespread heavy rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected through this morning. Locally heavy rain could result in
some minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-121245-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread heavy rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected through this morning. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
this afternoon, with cloud-to-ground lightning, torrential
downpours, and the potential for an isolated tornado. Locally heavy
rain could result in some minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ071-082-121245-
Mecklenburg-Union NC-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

In addition to the wind gust potential, widespread heavy rain
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through this
morning. Locally heavy rain could result in some minor flooding of
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ502-504-506-121245-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
744 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCZ071-111130-
Mecklenburg NC-
601 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Mecklenburg County
through 630 AM EST...

At 601 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Uptown Charlotte, or near Southpark Mall, moving north
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte,
Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte, Northwest
Charlotte, Matthews and Pineville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8073 3503 8086 3509 8092 3524 8101
      3527 8102 3533 8098 3534 8099 3535 8097
      3535 8096 3536 8092 3538 8096 3536 8097
      3537 8099 3539 8095 3543 8095 3548 8078
      3511 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 160DEG 28KT 3513 8081

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
828 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

SCZ101-102-104-105-111400-
Greater Oconee SC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
828 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pickens
and northeastern Oconee Counties through 900 AM EST...

At 827 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Walhalla, or near Lake Keowee, moving northwest at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Six Mile, Salem, Devils Fork State Park, Lake Keowee, Keowee Toxaway
State Park, Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee, Bad Creek and Nine Times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8312 3499 8310 3500 8311 3502 8304
      3507 8286 3479 8276 3472 8296 3495 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 156DEG 29KT 3483 8290

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG