Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

028 
WWUS53 KGRR 291958
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
358 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MIC005-015-081-292015-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220829T2015Z/
Allegan MI-Kent MI-Barry MI-
358 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ALLEGAN...KENT AND NORTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTIES...

At 357 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Saranac, or 10
miles southwest of Ionia, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. This storm has a history of producing 
         damaging winds and power outages.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely 
         to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Rapids...        Hastings...            Wyoming...
Kentwood...            Walker...              Grandville...
East Grand Rapids...   Rockford...            Sparta...
Wayland...             Lowell...              Middleville...
Caledonia...           Freeport...            Gerald R. Ford Inter...
Ada...                 Dorr...                Grattan...
Cedar Springs...       Irving...              

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 8578 4329 8579 4329 8532 4258 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 270DEG 43KT 4291 8524 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kenyon

631 
WWUS53 KGRR 292013
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
413 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MIC005-015-081-292022-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220829T2015Z/
Allegan MI-Kent MI-Barry MI-
413 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ALLEGAN...KENT
AND NORTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM EDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central and southwestern Michigan.

LAT...LON 4258 8578 4329 8579 4329 8532 4258 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 261DEG 41KT 4293 8505 

$$

Kenyon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
205 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Mid level water vapor imagery shows a wedge of dry air over wrn
Lwr MI currently, inbetween last night's convection and the
approaching/deepening mid level trough. There is a N-S lobe of
vorticity drifting east from Lk MI currently which could
eventually act as a trigger for new scattered convection,
although we currently have considerable stratus overhead and MLCIN
present.

Once low clouds mix out and MLCIN is erased around 18Z, focus
will be on the approaching sfc cold front which currently extends
from roughly IMT to MSN to DVN. Currently the convection in nw IL
is increasing and a svr tstm watch was issued earlier east to
Chicago. This activity is not handled too well by the CAMs and
there is not good agreement among the CAMs going forward, which
lends to some uncertainty as to the threat and timing of any svr
convection in our area.

Should the current IL convection be the "main show" for svr wx,
extrapolation has it arriving at the lakeshore south of I-96
around 3 PM and probably exiting already by 6 PM. Activity could
expand farther northward along the front and/or aforementioned
vort lobe, but currently the highest risk of damaging winds looks
to be along/south of I-94 where highest MLCapes near 3500 J/KG are
fcst by the RAP as deep layer shear ramps up over 30 kts.

Behind the svr wx threat, a heavy rain risk may develop later
this evening for a time south and east of GRR. This is where the
sfc cold front will be stalled for awhile as the mid level trough
is still deepening just upstream. Latest 12Z HREF supports some
locally higher amounts over 1.5 inches between 00Z and 06Z.
Fortunately if this occurs it will not overlap last night's heavy
rain swath which was farther north from MKG to MOP.

Beach Hazard/Small Craft headlines are working out quite well as
the morning beach reports and webcams reveal 3-6 footers at most
beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

A good chunk of today is probably going to be dry. Latest radar
imagery shows showers exiting the cwa to the east but not before
they dumped over 2 inches of rain in several locations. We'll see
more rain late this afternoon, especially south of I-96 and some of
the rain could be locally heavy.

Severe storms aren't out of the question this afternoon. We have a
very moist airmass in place and lots of dynamics in play today.

A developing upper trough over the northern Plains will move east
and push a cold front across Wisconsin this afternoon. Expect
showers/storms to develop in advance of these features after 21z.
Mid level lapse rates are also progd to increase to 7.5C/km during
the late afternoon. The right entrance region of the upper jet also
moves in during this time. Finally, bulk shear increases to 45 knots
prior to 00z over the southwest cwa. These features could certainly
lead to a few strong to severe storms from late afternoon through
early evening. In addition to strong winds torrential rainfall
leading to ponding is likely.

The precipitation will end overnight as the cold front moves
through. Clearing will occur Tuesday behind the upper trough axis
and then we're looking at dry weather for the rest of the week.

Highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s are expected Tuesday
through Thursday before temperatures warm into the 80s Friday. A
return to humid conditions is expected by Saturday when south flow
strengthens again ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MVFR cigs slowly lifting toward VFR levels this afternoon,
although thunderstorms becoming more numerous. The line of strong
to severe storms currently moving across srn lk MI will likely
bring IFR or lower vsbys and gusts over 40 kts to AZO/BTL/JXN
between roughly 20Z and 22Z. The storms are expanding northward
now too, so MKG/GRR/LAN should be impacted as well with a brief
period of torrential rain and gusty winds.

Strong to svr tstms expected to end by 00Z if not earlier, but
additional showers and possible tstms should fill in after 00Z
south and east of GRR. These may contain locally heavy rain with a
continued risk of IFR or lower vsbys before ending around
midnight. However confidence on where exactly that second batch
of rain sets up is low at this time.

Conditions turning predominately VFR later tonight into Tuesday
behind cold front, although some MVFR cigs could hang on around
JXN/LAN through mid morning Tue before the front exits.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

South winds 15 to 25 knots will be hazardous for small craft today.
There's probably going to be a lull in the winds tonight, but then
west to northwest winds develop behind the cold front Tuesday and
we'll likely need another advisory and beach hazards statement.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
325 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-300730-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
325 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms, possibly severe with strong winds, are possible
today and this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-300730-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
325 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Wind and waves will be hazardous to small craft through this
evening. Additionally, thunderstorms, possibly severe with strong
winds, are possible today and this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Wind and waves will be hazardous to small craft Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1142 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SE GLENN              42.48N 86.18W
08/29/2022  M1.00 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN FELL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 11PM AND
            MIDNIGHT.

&&

AMD