Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
351 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

LATEST UPDATE...
Discussion/Marine

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather/heavy rain
threat as a well-defined MCV riding east near the WI/IL border
heads our way. Very unstable air mass with ML Capes near 3000 J/KG
exists ahead of this feature and CIN has (obviously) recently
been erased.

Explosive storm development took place earlier around Chicago
(with reports of semi-trucks blown over), and another area of
robust convection formed just south/east of GRR along leading
edge of meso-scale boundary. Deep layer shear is somewhat
marginal across the svr tstm watch area (25-30kts), but the
extreme instability in place will compensate for that. Expect
scattered to numerous storms to produce locally damaging wind
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large hail through 00Z.
Also can't rule out a quick tornado spin up.

Two inch PWATs and low-mid 70 dewpoints will lead to areas of
torrential rainfall this afternoon/evening, and potential for
repeating/training cells could produce localized swaths of over 3
inches of rain. Recent dry conditions may limit flood potential
but if those heavier amounts set up over any urban areas there
could be significant flooding of roads and low lying areas.

There's not much of a push of drier air through the end of the
week as frontal boundary gets hung up so humid conditions
persisting. Lingering dew pts near 70 results in some fog/stratus
formation late tonight, with lingering clouds and scattered
showers Thursday and Friday mainly south and east of GRR. Could be
a few tstms during the afternoon/early evening when sfc
instability redevelops/peaks. Meanwhile slightly drier air mass
and sfc ridging should keep areas north and west of GRR
drier and perhaps a bit sunnier on Thursday and Friday.

Currently Saturday looks like a dry, sunny and very warm/humid
day as upper level ridging builds into the region from the
southwest. Shower and tstm potential returns from the northwest at
some point Sunday night or Monday as that upper ridging is
broken down/replaced by an upper trough and stronger westerlies
coming in from the northwest. Associated sfc front may stall
overhead for a couple days early next week with convective threat
continuing as it interacts with our lingering warm and very humid
air mass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

In the near term, showers and tstms containing locally heavy
rainfall rates may produce brief IFR or lower vsbys at MKG and
GRR. This activity is expected to spread south and east with time
after 20Z, eventually impacting the terminals south and east of
GRR.

Showers and tstms diminishing this evening from west to east with
passage of mid level shortwave, but numerous MVFR to IFR cigs
likely developing in the wake of the convection overnight. MVFR
cigs lingering into Thursday, especially south and east of GRR
where additional showers are likely, possibly becoming tstms again
by afternoon as instability rebuilds.

South-southwest sfc winds 10-20kt this afternoon with locally
higher gusts in and near tstms, followed by much lighter/variable
winds later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

Winds over Lake Michigan (outside of tstms) have recently
diminished but strong wave/current action continues so no changes
to the ongoing beach hazard statement and small craft advisory at
this time. Surface ridging to our northwest on Thursday and
Friday eventually provides a lighter wind/wave regime with
periods of offshore flow. Next potential beach/small craft hazard
day looks to be Sunday as next frontal boundary approaches from
the northwest.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ064>067-071>074.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-040700-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon and evening, may be
severe with pockets of damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado or
locally large hail cannot be ruled out. If storms tend to repeat
over the same areas, localized flooding is also possible.

Portions of southern Michigan may see heat index values surpass
100 degrees early this afternoon, making heat exhaustion or heat
stroke an increased concern.

Waves and currents on Lake Michigan today will result in a high
risk for swimmers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Waves and currents on Thursday may pose a moderate swim risk for
some Lake Michigan beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today. Spotters are encouraged to
report local severe weather to the National Weather Service via
amateur radio networks, phone, social media, or email.

LMZ844>849-040700-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds and waves on Lake Michigan will be hazardous for small craft
and swimmers. A thunderstorm is also possible, which could bring
locally stronger winds and dangerous lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Waves and currents on Thursday may pose a moderate swim risk for
some Lake Michigan beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today. Spotters are encouraged to
report local severe weather to the National Weather Service via
amateur radio networks, phone, social media, or email.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE ALLEGAN            42.49N 85.80W
08/03/2022  M55 MPH          ALLEGAN            MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MIALG 3.6 SE ALLEGAN (MAWN).

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
339 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E SAINT JOHNS         43.00N 84.52W
08/03/2022  M52 MPH          CLINTON            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
353 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE EDGEMONT PARK     42.78N 84.58W
08/03/2022  M46 MPH          CLINTON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KLAN LANSING.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
415 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW DOWLING           42.53N 85.30W
08/03/2022  M40 MPH          BARRY              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MIPCC 2.6 W DOWLING (MAWN).

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
417 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE GRAND LEDGE       42.76N 84.74W
08/03/2022  M45 MPH          EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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