High Wind Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Van Buren County, MI

003 
WWUS73 KGRR 052049
NPWGRR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
349 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-060500-
/O.CON.KGRR.HW.W.0001.220306T0500Z-220306T1800Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, 
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, 
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, 
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, 
Battle Creek, and Jackson
349 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Two separate bursts of wind are expected 
  across the area. The first sweeping through between 100am and 
  400am with a line of showers and thunderstorms. A second burst 
  of wind is expected between 400am and 900am or so and this 
  burst may be more widespread. Wind gusts to around 60 mph will 
  be possible across all of the Southwest quarter of Lower 
  Michigan overnight and into Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/grr

930 
WWUS73 KGRR 060206
NPWGRR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
906 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061015-
/O.CON.KGRR.HW.W.0001.220306T0500Z-220306T1800Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, 
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, 
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, 
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, 
Battle Creek, and Jackson
906 PM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest wind gusts to around 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/grr

658 
WWUS73 KGRR 060840
NPWGRR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
340 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061645-
/O.CON.KGRR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, 
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, 
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, 
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, 
Battle Creek, and Jackson
340 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Scattered
  to numerous power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/grr

776 
WWUS73 KGRR 061512
NPWGRR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1012 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061800-
/O.CON.KGRR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, 
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, 
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, 
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, 
Battle Creek, and Jackson
1012 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest of the wind gusts have likely
  already occurred during the overnight and early morning hours.
  However, it will remain windy into the afternoon. Wind gusts in
  excess of 50 mph will remain possible through 100 PM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/grr

DUKE

255 
WWUS73 KGRR 061800
NPWGRR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
100 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061900-
/O.EXP.KGRR.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, 
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, 
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, 
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, 
Battle Creek, and Jackson
100 PM EST Sun Mar 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will continue to diminish through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Damaging wind gusts are no longer expected and the
High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire at 1 PM.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/grr

DUKE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1129 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

We have decided to go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a
High Wind Warning this morning. The High Wind Warning will run
from midnight tonight to 100pm on Sunday.

There are two bursts of wind that we are concerned about. The
first is with a convective line of showers and thunderstorms that
will sweep rapidly across the area between roughly 100am and
400am. This line will have a very strong low level jet aloft that
any downward transfer of momentum will be able to tap. Wind speeds
between 2,000ft and 5,000ft are between 60-70 knots.

The second burst of wind will be along the cold front and will be
associated with the gradient itself. This wind will sweep through
the area between 400am and 100pm on Sunday morning. This may
actually be the worst of the two wind bursts and will slam into
the lakeshore counties between 400am and 500am and sweep east
through 800am. The winds will remain gusty and strong even into
the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

Warm front lifts through lower MI mid to late morning setting up
strong WAA across west MI. While this strong WAA leads to a breezy
afternoon/evening, warm nose in the 850-900mb layer greatly limits
any potential mixing down of 40+kt winds at/above 800mb, with
afternoon wind gusts only topping out around 20-25mph. Some degree
of clearing is expected this afternoon once the front fully clears
the area, with best potential mostly sunny skies being along the I-
94 corridor. As a result, these areas have a good shot of seeing
highs in the low 60s today. Will be tougher for areas north of Grand
Rapids to get much higher than the low to mid 50s due to longer
residence time of cloud cover and later timing of the core of the
warm sector reaching the area. Mid-level shortwave reaches the
western Great Lakes late this evening increasing precip chances from
west to east between 02-06Z tonight. Strongest forced ascent
associated with the wave occurs over the UP and northern lower MI
aided by left exit region dynamics of the accompanying jet streak.
That said, model guidance continues to show respectable ascent
across the northern half of the CWA, in particular over areas
northwest of a Muskegon-Clare line where QPF up to 0.25" is
possible. Rain amounts decrease the further south you go due to
displacement from favorable upper level divergence.

Main area of concern with these showers (and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm) is the potential for strong wind gusts at the surface.
Shower activity coincides with strengthening LLJ that begins to
expand into west MI from the southwest. Winds at 900mb increase to
50+kt by midnight with forecast soundings showing wet bulb cooling
eliminating the low level inversion. With profiles turning more
neutral, will not be difficult for showers to pull these stronger
wind to the surface leading to gusts of 50-60mph. The still
deepening surface low and parent upper level wave track across the
northern Great Lakes Sunday morning which will sweep a strong cold
front across the area between ~08-12Z. Additional scattered
showers/t-storms are possible along this front given the strong
forcing (plus CAPE around 400 J/kg) which again will be able to
generate strong gusts at the surface as rain pulls momentum towards
the ground. While the High Wind Watch is partly to cover this
potential, strongest wind gusts accompany/follow in the wake of the
cold front. Post-frontal mixing combined with the now 60-70kt LLJ,
continues to support gusts near 60mph through Sunday morning for
much of western MI. With these winds still 24hrs out, will maintain
the Watch and let the day shift make the final call with the latest
model guidance. Winds quickly diminish over the second half of the
day Sunday as the low rapidly moves into eastern Canada relaxing the
local pressure gradient.

Next wave ejects out of the Desert Southwest late Sunday and quickly
reaches the Ohio Valley early Monday. 00Z runs continue to move into
agreement in precip overspreading the southern 2/3rd's of the CWA
between ~09Z and 12Z with the northern 1/3rd being a bit delayed
more until 12-18Z. Main uncertainty at this point is what the p-
type will be. Currently temperatures at onset and through the first
few hours hover around freezing to slightly above freezing (for
areas south of Grand Rapids) supporting rain-snow mix-particularly
over the southern half of the area. Once the low tracks in the
Northeast late Monday afternoon/evening, northwest flow on the
backside of the low draws much colder air (850mb temps fall from -3C
to -10C) into lower MI transitioning lingering precip to all snow.
Lower ratios and marginal temps through the bulk of the snow will
limit accumulations to a general 0.5-1.5" across the CWA with
amounts greater than this dependent on if deformation/snowfall rates
overachieve to outpace melting.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

Wind will become an aviation impact this evening and more so
tonight as a powerful low level jet moves in. This will likely
lead to wind shear for all sites. Several lines of showers will
track through tonight as well and there could be a few storms
around. Local wind gust may top 50 knots in any heavier shower.
The winds will veer southwest tonight as a cold front approaches
from the west. Mostly VFR weather is expected but ceilings will
lower in any shower potentially to MVFR tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

Deepening low pressure tracks into the upper Great Lakes this
evening/tonight. S/SW winds strengthen over the course of the
afternoon as the low approaches with gales possible after 00Z
this evening. As a result, a Gale Warning is now in effect 00-18Z
Sunday. A strong cold front sweeps across the area Sunday morning
bringing the strongest winds gusts with higher end gales likely
(40-45kts of the west). Winds diminish Sunday afternoon as low
pressure quickly departs the region.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...KDK
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...KDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
348 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-060915-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
348 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts (up to
50-60mph) late tonight. A High Wind Watch remains in effect
tonight into Sunday as a result. Scattered power outages are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A strong cold front sweeps across the area Sunday morning bringing
the best potential for strong wind gusts of 50-60mph. A High Wind
Watch remains in effect through noon Sunday. Scattered power
outages are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-060915-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
348 AM EST Sat Mar 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect for all nearshore waters this evening
into early Sunday afternoon. Please refer to the latest marine
forecasts for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Gale Warning is in effect through early Sunday afternoon.
Please refer to the latest marine forecasts for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.