Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1116 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for north central and
central WI through 2 am Wednesday. Severe storms have quickly
developed in NW WI, in an areas of WAA/moisture convergence north
of a surface low and approaching warm front. Instability and shear
parameters are impressive over western WI, and better instability
is finally pushing into NC/C WI. Suspect that the cluster of
storms over NW WI will tend to dive southeast, into the better
better instability near the warm front. If this scenario pans out,
the best severe threat would likely be in central WI during the
late evening and early overnight hours.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

An 850 mb 40 knot jet will produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across Northern Wisconsin late this afternoon
and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible further south.
The activity will probably drift south a little overnight. A few
storms with strong updrafts could produce large hail. Lows tonight
will be at least ten degrees above normal with rising dewpoints.

A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is likely as a cold
front moves across the area tomorrow. A few storms could produce
heavy rain and gusty winds. It will be warm and humid ahead of
the front as dewpoints climb above 70F. Heat index values of 90 to
95 are likely in the eastern counties before the front arrives.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

The main highlights from this forecast period revolve around quiet
conditions for the remainder of the work week, followed by the next
chance for showers and thunderstorms sometime this weekend.

Wednesday night through Friday...A cold front and lingering showers
and thunderstorms will be exiting the forecast area to the southeast
Wednesday evening. A surface high pressure system will build into
the region following the cold front, allowing skies to clear and
winds to decrease. Low temperatures will be near normal Wednesday
night, with readings mainly in the 50s. With the high pressure
expected to remain in place through Friday, went with a dry
forecast. After near normal high temperatures for Thursday (upper
70s to low 80s), temperatures rise above normal for Friday (mainly
middle 80s) as the high pressure departs, lifting warmer air into
the region.

Rest of the extended...A cold front is progged to move across the
region this weekend, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. However, the timing for this cold frontal passage
continues to change. While the previous model runs had the front
speeding up and moving across the forecast area Saturday
afternoon/evening, the latest runs indicate the front slowing down
with the passage occurring sometime Saturday night into Sunday,
which lowers the potential for severe storms. There are also
indications the front will reach far northwest WI Saturday afternoon
and become nearly stationary, which may bring showers and
thunderstorms to portions of north-central WI. Due to the flip-
flopping with timing, decided to leave the blend of models chance
PoPs for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. If the
latest guidance holds true, Saturday would be very warm and humid,
with temperatures approaching the low 90s and heat indices in the
low to middle 90s. Once the front exits the region, high pressure
will build into the region for early next week bringing dry
conditions.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

A bowing line of severe thunderstorms was moving through north
central WI late this evening, along and just north of a warm
frontal boundary. Not sure how far south this line with track,
but current thoughts are that the southern edge will stay fairly
close to Hwy 29, so focusing on areas near and north of AUW and
GRB. There is another compact complex of severe storms racing
through central MN, and this may impact AUW and RHI between 08z-11z.
Additional scattered storms may occur with an upper level
disturbance and cold front that will move through the region
during the day, so will have a secondary period of storms mentioned
in the TAFs. There will be some low ceilings across far northern
WI until the warm front lifts through, otherwise generally
expecting VFR conditions except during storms.

LLWS will impact the TAF sites overnight, but should wane over
most of the forecast area into Wednesday morning. Gusty S winds
will become SW late tonight into early Wednesday, then turn NW
after the front moves through in the afternoon/early evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
300 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-040800-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
300 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front moves
across the area. Some storms may be strong to severe, especially
across east-central and far northeast Wisconsin this afternoon.
The strongest storms could produce damaging winds, heavy rain, and
marginally severe hail.

Very warm and humid weather is likely today, particularly across
east-central and portions of far northeast Wisconsin where heat
index values greater than 90 degrees are possible.

Hazardous swimming conditions are possible at beaches along Lake
Michigan today due to high wave action.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible this weekend, but it's too early to
determine if they might be severe.

Very warm and humid weather is possible on Saturday with heat
index values greater than 90 degrees, especially in east-central
and far northeast Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, especially in
east- central and far northeast Wisconsin.

LMZ521-522-541>543-040800-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
300 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today, any storms would pose a hazard
to mariners.

Gusty winds and high waves will likely create conditions
hazardous to small craft starting today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible this weekend, any storms would pose a
hazard to mariners.

Kurimski/KLJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
930 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

WIZ005-030330-
Vilas WI-
930 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Vilas
County through 1030 PM CDT...

At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Turtle Flambeau Flowage, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lac Du Flambeau and Manitowish Waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4615 8972 4590 8981 4590 8990 4591 9004
      4598 9004 4598 8993 4617 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 282DEG 18KT 4610 9022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1004 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

WIZ005-010-030345-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
1004 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Vilas
and northwestern Oneida Counties through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1003 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Turtle Flambeau Flowage, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Lac Du Flambeau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 8950 4565 8964 4582 9005 4598 9005
      4598 8993 4614 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 274DEG 18KT 4600 9012

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
145 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOMAHAWK                45.46N 89.73W
08/02/2022                   LINCOLN            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN IN TOMAHAWK

&&

TIM.KIECKBUSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
216 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

WIZ018-030-035-036-030800-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-Lincoln WI-
216 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Wood, western
Portage, southern Lincoln and Marathon Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 209 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Cornell to 7 miles south
of Thorp to near Price. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and brief torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Additional rainfall of up to an inch
         could cause some minor flooding in parts of northern
         Marathon and southern Lincoln counties where 1 to 2 inches
         of rain has already fallen.

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield, Weston, Merrill,
Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Abbotsford and Spencer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
central and north central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 9005
      4531 9004 4531 8943 4481 8939 4425 8963
      4426 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 265DEG 48KT 4524 9106 4485 9081 4452 9112

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
248 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

WIZ018-030-035-036-030830-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-Lincoln WI-
248 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Wood,
northwestern Portage, southwestern Lincoln and Marathon Counties
through 330 AM CDT...

At 244 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Cornell, southward to Stanley and
Augusta.  The storms were moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph and pea size hail are possible.
         Brief torrential rainfall is also possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wausau, Marshfield, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Abbotsford,
Spencer, Rothschild, Schofield and Knowlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

The storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4503 9020 4512 9020 4512 9005
      4514 9004 4514 8949 4461 8949 4460 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 265DEG 38KT 4492 9048

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
302 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

WIZ035>037-045-030845-
Waupaca WI-Wood WI-Waushara WI-Portage WI-
302 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Wood,
southern Portage, northern Waushara and southwestern Waupaca Counties
through 345 AM CDT...

At 302 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Rome, or 12 miles south of Wisconsin Rapids, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Waupaca, Whiting, Amherst,
Plainfield, Chain O' Lakes-King, Napowan Scout Camp, Hartman Creek
State Park and Lake Wazeecha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4458 8921 4416 8890 4411 8960 4425 8960
      4425 9004 4437 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 259DEG 38KT 4422 8987

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EB