Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Green Bay, WI

604 
WHUS73 KGRB 291734
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

LMZ521-522-300145-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220630T2300Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 2 to 4 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Bay of Green Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-300145-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 4 to 7 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Washington Island 
  to Sheboygan.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to 2 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

827 
WHUS73 KGRB 292003
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

LMZ521-522-300300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220630T2300Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 2 to 4 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Bay of Green Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-300300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 4 to 7 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Washington Island 
  to Sheboygan.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to 2 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

AK

374 
WHUS73 KGRB 300208
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
908 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

LMZ521-522-301000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220630T2300Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
908 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 2 to 4 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Bay of Green Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-301000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
908 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 4 to 7 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Washington Island 
  to Sheboygan.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to 2 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

AK

512 
WHUS73 KGRB 300939
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

LMZ521-522-301745-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220630T2300Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 2 to 4 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Bay of Green Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-301745-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.220630T1000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kts and waves of 4 to 7 ft 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Washington Island 
  to Sheboygan.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JS

981 
WHUS73 KGRB 301718
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

LMZ521-522-302300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-220630T2300Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kts and 
  waves 1 to 3 ft.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Bay of Green Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-010130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kts and
  waves 3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Washington Island 
  to Sheboygan.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

855 
WHUS73 KGRB 301946
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

LMZ521-522-010300-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-220701T0500Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kts and
  waves 2 to 4 ft.

* WHERE...Central and Southern Bay of Green Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight CDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-010300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kts and
  waves 4 to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Washington Island 
  to Sheboygan.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

AK

187 
WHUS73 KGRB 010221
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
921 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

LMZ541>543-010330-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-220701T0700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
921 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Southwest winds have diminished this evening. A brief uptick in
wind gusts are possible after midnight as a cold front moves
through the area.

$$

LMZ521-522-010330-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-220701T0500Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
921 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Southwest winds have diminished this evening. A brief uptick in
wind gusts are possible after midnight as a cold front moves
through the area.

$$

AK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
419 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Some fog early today, otherwise mostly sunny with seasonable
temperatures. Turning breezy, warmer, and more humid Thursday with
scattered thunderstorms, mainly north.

The subtropical ridge will remain stretched out across the
southern United States throughout the period. A seasonably
strong, fairly low amplitude band of westerlies will persist to
the north, including across the forecast area.

Other than a very warm and rather humid day Thursday,
temperatures probably won't stray too far from seasonal normals.
Precipitation chances will primarily be tied to the passage of
shortwaves embedded within the westerlies across the area. So most
location should get some rainfall, but it still looks like
amounts will probably end up AOB normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Some dense fog has developed across the area where skies cleared
and water from yesterday's rains began to evaporate. Strongly
considered the need for a FG.Y, but webcams suggested the
visibility at most locations was still sufficient for safe travel.
So, opted to handle the situation with an SPS, but will continue
to monitor closely and could still post an advisory if conditions
worsen around daybreak. Any advisory would be short-lived however
as sunrise is very early and there aren't any high or middle
clouds over the fog so the sun will likely burn it off quickly.

Once the fog burns off, some convective clouds may briefly form as
the lingering moisture mixes out, but mostly sunny skies are
expected by afternoon as a weak anticyclone shifts across the
area.

The anticyclone will be off to the east tonight, allowing an
increasing southwesterly flow to develop--especially above the
surface. Guidance suggests convection developing in the
isentropic lift zone at the nose of the LLJ will probably pass
north of the area. Backed down on PoPs from the previous forecast,
with rain chances now confined to mainly after midnight and
across NC WI and the far north.

Warmer and more humid air from the west will overspread the area
Thursday. Overall, models seemed too limited in the precipitation
they developed across the area NW part of the area late in the
day. Given the cold front approaching the area by 00Z and mid-
level height falls with the approach of a large-scale trough, it
seems likely at least clusters of storms will develop. Parameters
look fairly favorable for severe storms as well, as deep layer
shear will be around 50 kts. The remnants of an EML will be across
the area, although mid-level lapse rates are forecast to lessen
during the afternoon. Model forecast soundings off the GFS and NAM
suggest CIN will initially limit convection, but both models
showed the cap weakening as the large scale forcing arrives from
the west late in the day. One factor that may work against a
greater severe threat is low-level moisture, as surface dew points
won't be as high as they often are at this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

The zonal flow at 500mb will continue into the weekend, then there
are some indications ridging will build across the central United
States into the Rockies next week depending on which model you
choose. By next week, the area will be in the ring of fire as
upper level disturbances will move east-southeast across the
western Great Lakes from time to time. These upper level features
will bring chances of showers and storms from time to time,
although pinpointing location/timing this far out is difficult at
best. Will also need to watch and see if any of these system would
bring a round of severe weather to the area.

For Thursday night, surface winds will diminish as a cold front
moves across the area. Models indicating CAPE values of 500 to
1,500 J/KG along with shear values at least 40 to 45 knots.
Despite the shear and CAPE values, models are not really firing
off convection with very heavy rainfall. One reason may be due to
the warm layer aloft just above 850mb. With the front moving
across the area, still think there will be convection along the
front that could be strong or severe. The Storm Prediction Center
has much of the forecast area in a marginal risk of severe storms.
Any lingering showers or storms should exit far eastern Wisconsin
shortly after midnight. Friday now looks dry as the models hold
off any additional convection breaking out Friday afternoon across
central and east-central Wisconsin.

Dry conditions are expected on Saturday as high pressure moves
across the western Great Lakes. Beyond Saturday, the confidence in
the forecast lowers as model differ on when convection would break
out across the forecast area. The Canadian/GFS model are considerably
wetter for the Fourth of July compared to the ECMWF. Temperatures
should be at or slightly above normal for much of the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

The primary aviation weather concerns will be fog and stratus
producing some LIFR/VLIFR conditions early today, and LLWS
tonight. The LLWS tonight could be substantial--especially across
north-central WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
430 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-301100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
430 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Dense fog will pose a hazard to travel early today--especially
across central, north-central, and far northeast Wisconsin.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across northern Wisconsin
late tonight, but the storms are not expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night.
Some of the storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night could
be severe and produce damaging winds, large hail, and locally
heavy rainfall.

Southerly winds could gust to around 35 mph on Thursday, which
may result in hazardous driving conditions for high profile
vehicles. The south winds will also result in building waves on
Lake Michigan, and may result in hazardous swimming conditions on
Lake Michigan beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-301100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
430 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Increasing south winds will result in building waves and
conditions hazardous to small craft late tonight through Thursday
afternoon on the bay, and through Thursday evening on the lake.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Thursday night. Any
storms that form will pose a hazard to boaters on the bay and
lake. Some of the storms late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night could produce strong winds, large hail, heavy rain, and
greatly reduced visibility.

Skowronski/Eckberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1103 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

WIZ005-010-011-018-290800-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Lincoln-
1103 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...

Patchy dense fog has begun to develop across northern Wisconsin
this evening. The fog will be locally dense, with visibilities as
low as one quarter of a mile possible at times. The fog is
expected to linger until Wednesday morning as the sun rises.

Motorists should exercise caution if traveling across north-
central Wisconsin tonight, especially in low lying areas as
visibiility can change rapidlyin a short distance.

Uhlmann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
117 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-290900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
117 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...DENSE FOG EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK...

Patchy dense fog began to develop across north-central Wisconsin
Tuesday evening. The fog is expected to expand south and east
overnight as skies clear. The fog will reduce the visibility to
less than 1/4 mile at times, resulting in hazardous travel
conditions.

Motorists should exercise caution, especially in low-lying areas
where the visibility can vary substantially over short distances.

If you encounter dense fog while driving, be sure to use your
low-beam headlights and maintain plenty of distance between your
vehicle and other vehicles. Allow extra time to reach your
destination, and drive at a speed that will allow you to safely
maneuver your vehicle around any object or animal you unexpectedly
encounter on the road.

The fog is expected to burn off after sunrise.

Skowronski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-291130-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...FOG EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL, NORTH-CENTRAL, AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Fog is expected across central, north-central, and far northeast
Wisconsin early this morning. The fog will reduce the visibility
to less than 1/4 mile at times, posing a hazard to early morning
travel across the area. Motorists should exercise caution,
especially in low-lying areas where the visibility can vary
substantially over short distances.

If you encounter dense fog while driving, be sure to use your
low-beam headlights and maintain plenty of distance between your
vehicle and other vehicles. Allow extra time to reach your
destination, and drive at a speed that will allow you to safely
maneuver your vehicle around any object or animal you unexpectedly
encounter on the road.

The fog may expand into east-central Wisconsin around daybreak,
but lingering cloudiness in that portion of the state will
prevent widespread fog formation.

The fog should begin to lift within an hour of sunrise, and burn
off completely by mid-morning.

Skowronski