Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Green Bay, WI

012 
WWUS53 KGRB 190109
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
809 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

WIC125-190118-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Vilas WI-
809 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN VILAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4582 8982 4590 8972 4578 8923 4556 8955
      4556 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 309DEG 20KT 4576 8971 

$$

WIC085-190200-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Oneida WI-
809 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY...

At 808 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Willow Reservoir, or 15 miles northwest of Rhinelander, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Newbold around 835 PM CDT.
  Crystal Lake Scout Reservation around 840 PM CDT.
  Rhinelander and Woodboro around 845 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Mc
Naughton, Lower Tomahawk River Natural Area, Goodnow, Harshaw,
Hazelhurst, Sugar Camp, Lake Tomahawk and Minocqua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4582 8982 4590 8972 4578 8923 4556 8955
      4556 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 309DEG 20KT 4576 8971 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Eckberg

729 
WWUS53 KGRB 190121
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
821 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

WIC085-190130-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-220719T0200Z/
Oneida WI-
821 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4582 8982 4590 8972 4578 8923 4556 8955
      4556 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 314DEG 17KT 4572 8965 

$$

Eckberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
237 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Sunny skies through the morning have brought surface temperatures
to their convective points this afternoon, with a robust cumulus
field in place across much of the area. Dewpoints have been on the
rise this afternoon as well, helping to bring up surface CAPE
values as CIN aloft erodes. As a result, a few storms have popped
up over far north-central Wisconsin.

As we get into the late afternoon hours, convection will likely
continue across portions of northern Wisconsin. Coverage will
likely remain isolated to scattered however, as upper forcing to
focus convection will be lacking this afternoon. Any storms that
do develop will have the potential to become strong to severe with
potential for hail and some strong wind gusts.

Attention then turns to the arrival of the first of a several
shortwaves from the west this evening, currently visible over
northern Minnesota where a few showers have kept going through the
morning hours. Short range models have generally focused on the
passage of the shortwave for any convection tonight, but there is
some question as to how much instability will be in the region if
the afternoon showers gain additional coverage. Again, spotty
strong to severe storms will be possible in the region, especially
across far northern WI and the Upper Peninsula.

Tonight, shower chances continue across northern Wisconsin but
most of central to east-central WI will see quiet conditions. Low
temperatures will be fairly mild, ranging from the 60s to low 70s.

Precipitation trends remain fairly messy for Tuesday. WAA through
the mid levels will create a fairly robust capping inversion,
creating the main hurdle for any convection in the late morning to
afternoon. Despite this, A few models still paint out isolated
precipitation as the first of two shortwaves cross the area.
Fairly significant CAPE values will be brewing under the cap
during this time, so kept some light pops in for the early
afternoon. Although most of the area does not seem likely to see
anything early in the day, any storms that do develop will have
the potential to become strong. A better chance for storms then
follows for the evening, as a 40 kt LLJ aims across the region
accompanied by a fairly vigorous shortwave. Thus, have increasing
pops through the late afternoon into the evening hours Tuesday
night. Strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Focus of this forecast mainly revolves around the potential for
severe thunderstorms on Tuesday night.

Tuesday night and Wednesday night...A compact and strong shortwave
will push a cold front across the region on Tuesday night.  QG
forcing looks rather robust as wind fields increase just ahead of
the shortwave and cold front.  While deep layer instability (1000-
2000 j/kg) will be more than sufficient for strong thunderstorms,
strong capping of more than 150 j/kg will have to be overcome in
order for that to occur.  Because of this capping, HREF paintball
imagery show relatively low probabilities of widespread deep
convection.  As a result, likely looking at only isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm development over central and north-central
Wisconsin early Tuesday evening that gradually weakens as it spreads
northeast through the evening hours.  If any surface based, deep
convection were to develop, cyclonic curved low level hodographs
would suggest all hazards would be possible. At this time, central
and north-central WI appear to be most at risk with the severe
threat diminishing further east.

Behind the cold front, slightly cooler and less humid air will push
into the region via northwest winds.  Enhanced moisture and
steepening low level lapse rates could lead to a few showers and
maybe an isolated storm on Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday
evening.  Then skies should clear through the rest of the night.

Rest of the forecast...Northern WI will be on the southern edge of
cyclonic upper level flow on Thursday and Friday.  The amplitude of
that cyclonic flow is still questionable, and a stronger trough
would lead to a chance of showers and storms across far northern WI.
But not enough evidence to stray from a dry forecast.  A higher
chance of showers/storms looks to occur towards late in the weekend
when southerly flow returns along with a stronger shortwave trough.
Temps will likely remain slightly above normal through the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

A scattered cumulus field will be in place across the region this
afternoon and into the evening before skies clear again. There
will be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms in the far
north this evening, but most of the area will remain dry. Given
the small chance, kept thunder out of the RHI TAF for now, but may
be needed if storms do get a bit further in to WI tonight. Light
winds and clear skies will then be in place overnight, which will
bring in at least a few patches of fog. A few showers may cross
into central WI Tuesday morning, but again the overall chance was
low enough to keep out of the TAF for now.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Uhlmann
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Uhlmann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
220 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-191930-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
220 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms over northern Wisconsin this
afternoon into tonight. A few of the storms could be severe, with
damaging winds, large hail and torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms at times from Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Although isolated strong to
severe storms will be possible anytime during this period, the
greatest threat of severe weather is anticipated on Tuesday
evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats.

A chance of thunderstorms will then return at times this weekend
into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed over northern Wisconsin this
through tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-191930-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
220 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms north of Algoma tonight. Any
storms that develop will pose a hazard to boaters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. Any storms that develop will pose a hazard to boaters.
Strong to severe storms may occur, especially Tuesday night.

Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves may lead to
hazardous conditions for small craft on Lake Michigan Tuesday
night through midday Wednesday.

A chance of thunderstorms will then return at times this weekend
into early next week.

Uhlmann/MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
718 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

WIZ005-010-190100-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
718 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Vilas
and northwestern Oneida Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lac Du Flambeau, or 15 miles southeast of Turtle Flambeau Flowage,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Torrential rainfall could lead to minor
         flooding and ponding of water on highways.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Squirrel Lake around 730 PM CDT.
  Rainbow Flowage around 755 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hazelhurst, Arbor
Vitae, Woodruff, Tomahawk River Pines Natural Area, Lake Tomahawk and
Minocqua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4584 8946 4575 8983 4597 9005 4598 9004
      4598 8993 4615 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 318DEG 23KT 4598 8989

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Eckberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
731 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             LAC DU FLAMBEAU         45.96N 89.88W
07/18/2022  M0.50 INCH       VILAS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED AROUND 40 MPH.

&&

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
732 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             LAC DU FLAMBEAU         45.96N 89.88W
07/18/2022  M0.75 INCH       VILAS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

ECKBERG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
734 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

WIZ005-010-190130-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
734 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Vilas
and northwestern Oneida Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Squirrel Lake, or 19 miles southeast of Turtle Flambeau Flowage,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rainbow Flowage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4606 8971 4578 8939 4562 8968 4586 9004
      4587 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 314DEG 18KT 4592 8984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Eckberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
745 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
07/18/2022  M45 MPH          MARATHON           WI   ASOS

&&

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
754 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             1 NNW LAC DU FLAMBEAU   45.97N 89.89W
07/18/2022  M0.75 INCH       VILAS              WI   PUBLIC

&&