Gale Warning 17, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1049 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Warm and breezy conditions with shallow cumulus clouds will
prevail across the region through the early evening hours ahead of
an approaching cold front. The approaching cold front will front
showers and scattered thunderstorms from west to east overnight.
The timing will be later this evening across north-central and
portions of central Wisconsin with the activity not arriving over
east-central Wisconsin until Friday morning. Given the slower
timing of the activity adjusted POPs to go with the latest timing
of the front and precipitation. A band of moderate to heavy rain
looks to arrive Friday afternoon as moisture advects into the area
along with mid level frontogenesis. By Friday afternoon PWAT
values surge to 1 to 1.4 inches across central and east-central
Wisconsin, which is around the maximum value for this time of
year.

Lows tonight will still be mild; ranging from around 50 across
north-central Wisconsin, to around 60 across east-central
Wisconsin. Highs on Friday will vary quite a bit with highs in the
50s during the morning across north-central Wisconsin with falling
temperatures during the afternoon behind the cold front and middle
60s across east-central and northeast Wisconsin given the later
arrival of the cold front and push of cold air.

One half to an inch of rain could fall tonight into Friday;
however, given the very dry conditions and low river levels
flooding concerns should remain low.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Active weather to start off the long term forecast with widespread
rainfall and strong winds. Then, quiet for a couple days into
early next week. A couple chances for rain late next week, but
still many differences.

Heaviest rain will fall right at the start of the long term
forecast (00Z/Sat) through midday Saturday. Plenty of deep
moisture with pwats of 1.0 to 1.4 inches, which is at or above the
max moving average for GRB sounding climatology--or 200 to 275
percent of normal area wide. Deep lift as well due to potent mid-
level energy and upper level jet streak. CAMs support this trend
showing widespread and steady rain from 00Z to 15Z Saturday, and
then becoming more scattered for the rest of the day. Rain ends
for most by 00Z/Sun as this system rapidly moves off to the
northeast. A few specks on instability still showing up in spots,
so cannot rule out an isolated thunder clap here and there.

Meanwhile, surface low deepens as it moves across Wisconsin from
southwest to northeast Saturday, resulting in very strong S/SW low
level winds, mainly east of the low across the Fox Valley and
east-central/northeast Wisconsin. Winds from 2000 to 5000 feet are
forecast to range from 50 to 60 knots. Soundings show mixing up
to that height from about mid-morning Saturday through the
evening, bringing surface gusts close to 50 mph at times. Will
need to monitor this trend and assess what, if any, potential wind
headlines may be needed. A Gale Warning is almost certain for the
lake and bay.

Dry and less windy weather is expected on Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, models diverge and vary on whether the area will get any
rain from an impulse moving up from the Plains. Late in the week,
another system could bring rain to the area--but again, there are
many timing and location issues. Stayed with a blended model
solution which has chance/slight chance PoPs on Tuesday, and
chance PoPs thereafter.

Even with clouds and rain, temperatures will remain near or above
normal through the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

A slow moving frontal system will continue to cross the area
during the next 12-18 hours, then stall as a strong shortwave
ejects northeast and induces a wave on the front. Strong winds
aloft will result in LLWS ahead of the front tonight. Ceilings
will fall to MVFR with frontal passage, then continue down to IFR
as showers increase across the area. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible. Based on the latest satellite and LDS data, have decided
to include thunder in the KRHI TAF after midnight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......KLJ
AVIATION.......Skowronski

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