Frost Advisory 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

355 
WWUS73 KGRB 241123
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
623 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018-019-241230-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220524T1300Z/
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
Rhinelander, Crandon, Aurora, Commonwealth, Spread Eagle, 
Niagara, Wausaukee, Merrill, Tomahawk, and Antigo
623 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Now that daybreak has occurred, temperatures have reached their 
overnight minimums and begun to warm. As a result, the Frost 
Advisory is no longer in effect.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
614 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

The main forecast concern centers around the possibility of frost
again across the north as it will be a race between falling
temperatures and approaching cloud cover.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a sprawling area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes. Visible satellite imagery showed a
decent amount of fair weather cumulus clouds had developed during
peak heating, especially over north-central and east-central WI.
There were also some high clouds due to the jet stream moving
overhead.

Daytime cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, the high pressure to remain in
firm control of our weather as it stretches from the Upper MS
Valley, over the Great Lakes, into southeast Canada. Another night
of light winds are expected, thus amount of cloud cover will
determine how low temperatures can get. Satellite and forecast
soundings show middle and high clouds to spread into the western
Great Lakes late this evening/overnight and 8H temperatures are
not as cold as night. Therefore, the forecast conundrum is
whether these clouds will prevent frost from becoming an issue,
hence are headlines needed? Based on the timing of the clouds,
have decided to forgo another headline, but will issue a SPS to
mention if these clouds do not make it here in time, an advisory
may eventually be necessary across northern WI. Min temperatures
to range from the middle to upper 30s north, upper 30s to lower
40s south.

The high pressure is expected to slowly drift to the east on
Monday and still be the main weather feature over northeast WI.
Meanwhile, a system is progged to be organizing over the southern
Plains with the leading edge of precipitation already reaching the
Midwest by the afternoon hours. Anticipate a sun/cloud mix through
the day with perhaps more clouds later in the day over central/
east-central WI. Despite the cool start to Tuesday, onset of
modest WAA will bring max temperatures to around 60 degrees near
Lake MI, middle to upper 60s inland.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Periods of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as a surface low moves from
west Texas to Wisconsin while an upper low lifts slowly northeast
from the TX/OK Panhandles towards the Ohio Valley.

The easterly winds coming off the 39 degree water of Lake Michigan,
clouds and rain will make for much cooler than usual temperatures
Wednesday, especially near the lake and bay. A soaking rainfall
looks likely for most of the forecast area, but significant flooding
looks unlikely.

A wave moving northeast along a cold front could bring additional
showers Thursday across Eastern Wisconsin. Upper ridging approaching
Wisconsin will make for warmer weather Saturday and especially early
next week. Models suggest that there could be showers or thunderstorms
at times over the Memorial Day weekend, but timing is uncertain.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

High-based cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening,
followed by increasing high clouds for the rest of the night.
Scattered cumulus clouds may redevelop on Tuesday, but VFR
conditions will continue regionwide.

Light and variable winds tonight will become east to southeast at
5 to 10 kts by late Tuesday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
228 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-241930-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
228 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Frost is possible across northern Wisconsin late tonight. Cold
sensitive plants could be damaged if proper precautions are not
taken.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night across east central and far northeast Wisconsin. Severe storms
are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-241930-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
228 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

Winds and waves hazardous to small craft are possible Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

AK/RDM