Beach Hazards Statement 6, NWS Green Bay, WI

479 
WHUS43 KGRB 311525
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1025 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

WIZ022-312330-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0006.220731T2300Z-220801T1500Z/
Door-
1025 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...From this evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

191 
WHUS43 KGRB 312001
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

WIZ022-010415-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0006.220731T2300Z-220801T1500Z/
Door-
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...From this evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

mpc

824 
WHUS43 KGRB 010209
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
909 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

WIZ022-011015-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0006.000000T0000Z-220801T1500Z/
Door-
909 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...Through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

mpc

645 
WHUS43 KGRB 010940
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
440 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

WIZ022-011500-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0006.000000T0000Z-220801T1500Z/
Door-
440 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected.|

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water
  and waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

JS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
415 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Still warm and dry today, then a round of showers and
thunderstorms tonight into early Monday. It still looks very warm
and humid at times next week, though there will probably be at
least a couple somewhat cooler and drier days as well.

A seasonably strong band of westerlies with low to at times
modest amplitude will persist across North America throughout the
period. The main change during the period will be for the
subtropical ridge expand northward--forcing the westerlies
primarily into Canada by next weekend. This is a little different
than what the models were showing several days ago. The earlier
runs favored a more consolidated anticyclone within the
subtropical ridge, with stronger ridging extending northward into
high latitudes resulting in a little more large-scale amplitude to
the westerlies.

If the new pattern is what verifies (we don't flip back to a
forecast of some other pattern tomorrow), it would keep frontal
systems progressing across the northern CONUS throughout the
period and result in more of a rollercoastering of temperatures
rather than a prolonged period of hot and humid weather. It would
still be very warm and humid mid-week and again next weekend, but
there would also be days with temperatures running closer to
normal and with a little less humidity early and late in the work
week. The large scale pattern will not be as unfavorable for
precipitation as the one in place the past several days, and
should support at least a couple rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. But it doesn't look really wet, either, so the
7-day precipitation will probably still be AOB normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

A somewhat complex mid-level trough will shift east from the
Northern Plains today, across the area tonight, and off to the
east on Monday. A cyclone attendant to the trough will track
across southern Canada, with a trailing cold front crossing the
forecast area late tonight. The setup looks favorable for
thunderstorms (some likely severe) to develop near the front
across MN this afternoon and then push east into the area tonight.
However, the severe threat in the forecast area won't be as great
as out to the west. First off, the arrival of storms in the
forecast area will be after peak heating, when the boundary layer
has already begun to cool off. Secondly, mixing into dry air aloft
today is likely to offset most or all of the advection of higher
dew points into the area on southwest winds. That effect will be
lost tonight, but the result will be a situation where getting
the increase in moisture to support convection will likely need to
occur due to advection immediately preceding the storms. In
addition, the 850 mb flow isn't forecast to be particularly
focused, strong, or convergent. So the storms will probably
already be weakening when they reach the area, and continue to do
so as they push across. The could still produce gusty winds, and a
couple storms with severe gusts will be possible, mainly across
the west early tonight.

A secondary piece or two of energy digging down the back side of
the trough may cause the precipitation to linger in the east into
Monday. Limited PoPs to the morning for now, but would not be
surprised if isolated showers continued to develop into the
afternoon and low PoPs may eventually be needed throughout the
day.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

More consistency among the medium range models today through the
midweek, with more variance by the weekend. Forecast will
generally oscillate between quiet days with near normal
temperatures, and warmer days with chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night...High pressure will slide across the area Monday
night leading to clear skies, light winds, and some cooler temps,
especially across the north where some 40s are possible. Patchy
fog development is also possible from about midnight until a
little after sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...After high pressure slides east
Tuesday, will start to get return flow and low level warm
advection, which could set off a few showers or storms Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. There is a better chance for storms
late Tuesday evening and overnight as additional forcing arrives
from the surface warm front moving across from southwest to
northeast, and a mid-level shortwave. While timing is not ideal,
there is enough instability and shear to possibly produce a few
strong to severe storms, along with heavy rain as pwats rise to
1.75 to 2.00 inches.

Wednesday...After the surface warm front passes through expect
a noticeable rise in humidity with Tds reaching the middle 60s to
low 70s. How high air temps get will come down to if and when
overnight clouds fully clear, and the timing of a cold front. If
the front comes through earlier in the day will not get as hot as
originally thought. Currently have Wednesday high temps ranging
from the middle 80s to low 90s. Cold front will move across the
area sometime midday Wednesday, once again bringing and chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Some strong to severe storms may be
possible, especially across the east where the front is more
likely to pass through during peak heating.

Wednesday night through Saturday...After this cold front/upper
trough exit by late Wednesday, models are now indicated mainly dry
weather for the rest of the work with with high pressure at the
surface and a broad upper ridge keeping the main jet energy and
accompanying shortwaves well north of the state. By Saturday,
differences arise. Another frontal system could impact the region
with a few rounds of showers and storms possible. Low confidence
at this point so have slight chance PoPs for Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The main aviation weather concern will be the showers and
thunderstorms expected tonight. They will be weakening by the time
they reach the area, but could still produce gusty winds.
Marginal LLWS conditions will shift east across the area
overnight. Otherwise, some diurnal convective cloudiness is
possible again today, but bases will be high enough to maintain
VFR conditions.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday morning
for WIZ022.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......KLJ
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
439 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-010945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
439 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. A few of the storms
could produce damaging wind gusts as they push into central and
north-central Wisconsin during the evening. The storms are
expected to gradually weaken as they continue east across the rest
of the area, though they could still produce wind gusts to around
40 mph.

Hazardous swimming conditions are expected at Door County beaches
of Lake Michigan from this evening through mid-morning Monday due
to wave action.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong to
severe storms may be possible at times.

Hot and humid weather is likely Wednesday, particularly across
central and east-central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal spotter activation is not expected to be necessary today
or tonight. But spotters are requested to report any wind gusts
over 40 mph to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-010945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
439 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty southwest winds and building waves will result in conditions
hazardous to small craft on Lake Michigan waters adjacent to Door
County from this evening through mid-morning Monday. Scattered
thunderstorms will pose a hazard to boaters on the lake and bay
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday, any storms
would pose a hazard to mariners.

Skowronski/KLJ