Wind Chill Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

194 
WWUS43 KGLD 211631 AAA
WSWGLD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
931 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

COZ090-220730-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WC.W.0001.220222T0600Z-220222T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KGLD.WC.Y.0004.220222T0600Z-220223T1900Z/
Yuma-
Including the cities of Yuma and Wray
931 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
MST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...A prolonged period of dangerously cold wind chill 
  readings as low as 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Entire Tri-State area.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to noon MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite may occur on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

COZ091-092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-220730-
/O.EXT.KGLD.WC.Y.0004.220222T0600Z-220223T1900Z/
Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, 
St. Francis, Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby,
Hoxie, Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, 
Grainfield, Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, 
Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
931 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022 /1031 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT
CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON MST /1 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...A prolonged period of dangerously cold wind chill 
  readings as low as 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Entire Tri-State area.

* WHEN...From 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening to noon MST 
  /1 PM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite may occur on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

Vincent

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
145 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

Overview: W flow aloft will back to the WSW (tonight) and SW
(Mon).. as potent shortwave energy, presently over the PAC NW,
digs SSE into the Intermountain West (Mon).. amplifying a broad
longwave trough over the western CONUS. The aforementioned
shortwave energy will progress eastward across the 4-Corners Mon
night.. lifting ENE-NE across the Central Plains on Tue.

Tonight: Aside from a brief southerly breeze in eastern CO late
this afternoon.. winds are anticipated to become variable
overnight.. as a broad, newly developed lee cyclone emerges over
eastern CO and western KS... amidst strengthening cyclonic flow
aloft. Expect lows in the 30s.. depending on coverage/extent of
upper level cloud cover late tonight.

Mon-Mon night: 1045-1050 mb Arctic high pressure in Canada will
surge southward through the Northern/Central Plains in this
period.. beneath an amplifying longwave trough /broad cyclonic
flow aloft/ over the western half of the CONUS. The aforementioned
lee cyclone.. anchored in place over CO/KS Mon morning.. will
serve to stall the approaching Arctic airmass.. temporarily, at
least.. ultimately giving way to unyielding pressure from the
north. Expect a N-S gradient in temperatures.. with highs largely
dependent upon the timing of the cold frontal passage /arrival of
the Arctic airmass/.. which remains somewhat uncertain. At this
time, expect highs ranging anywhere from the mid-upper 30s (north)
to upper 50s/lower 60s (south). Breezy NNE-NE winds and
strong/persistent cold advection will ensue Mon eve/night..
driving temperatures toward or below 0F by sunrise Tue morning.
Forecast soundings suggest that 30-40 knot NNE flow will reside
within a relatively shallow (~2 kft AGL deep) mixed layer (assoc/w
strong low-level cold advection) Monday evening/night. With this
in mind.. expect NNE winds sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts to 45
mph. With the above in mind.. a Wind Chill Advisory will
eventually be necessary for the Monday night / Tuesday morning
time frame.

Tue-Tue night: With an Arctic airmass extending into the region..
and H85 temps on the order of -15 to -20C.. expect well below
normal temperatures.. with daytime highs largely dependent upon
cloud cover, e.g. whether or not brief breaks in cloud cover may
allow a slight rise in temperatures during peak heating. Light
snow may develop over the region Tuesday evening/night. With
cyclonic flow aloft over a vast swath of the western CONUS.. and
a rather complex upper wave developing within.. over the
Intermountain West.. confidence in snow development/extent/ amount
remains rather uncertain. At this time, impactful accumulation is
not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

Thursday...there remains great agreement between the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models for an upper level trough to move across
the area from the west during the day with shortwave ridging during
the evening before another wave within a larger upper trough
approaches from the northwest. There is also good agreement on a
large area of moisture in the 850-500mb layer over the area at the
beginning of the period, decreasing from west to east through the
day as the upper trough moves through. For the overnight hours, a
generally clear sky is expected through about midnight before some
mid level clouds move in from the northwest. As a result, there
remains a fairly good chance for some light snow in the morning,
decreasing from west to east in the afternoon. Dry conditions
continue during the night. 24 hour snowfall amounts from 12z
Thursday to 12z Friday from the GFS/ECMWF/NBM average under one
inch.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures during the day range from -7C
(southwest CWA) to -16C (northeast CWA). The current forecast is for
high temperatures to be in the middle teens to lower 20s which is
close to the better performing temperature guidance from the past 7
days. This would be supported by typical full mixing at 850mb. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the zero to single digits below
zero range with wind chill readings of -7F to -19F.

Friday...scattered clouds are expected as moisture in the 700-500mb
layer moves across the area during the day, sliding south of the
area during the night. The current forecast shows more clouds than
may actually be seen during the night, something for later shifts to
watch. No precipitation is expected at this time. 850mb temperatures
continue to warm with -4F (west) to -10F (northeast), supporting
highs in the middle 20s to lower 30s, close to the 2m GEFS temps and
typical from full mixing at 850mb. Low temperatures dont look to
be as cold as the previous nights with single digits above zero.
Wind chills zero to five below zero.

Saturday...a dry upper level trough moves across the area during the
day with a large upper ridge moving toward the intermountain west.
Under a generally sunny sky temperatures should finally rise above
the freezing mark with middle 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures are
expected to be in the 10F to 16F range.

Sunday...not much change in the upper level pattern with a large
upper trough to our east/northeast and ridging to our west. High
temperatures rise into the middle 40s to lower 50s under perhaps
some scattered high clouds moving through from the northwest. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1049 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 06Z TAF
period. The passage of a cold front is expected between 17-18Z
that will turn winds from a northwesterly to a northeasterly
direction along with an increase in wind speeds by 21Z that brings
gusts of around 30 kts. Lower ceilings around 3kft AGL will be
moving into the area behind the front between 00-06Z with
conditions approaching MVFR due to the lower ceiling heights.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

Record low maximum temperatures are possible at the following
locations:

Tuesday February 22:

Goodland.....12 degrees set in 1960
McCook.......16 degrees set in 1957

Wednesday February 23:

Goodland.....10 degrees set in 1965
McCook.......10 degrees set in 1914

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
CLIMATE...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
554 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
554 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022 /654 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A dramatic change in temperatures will impact the northern and
central plains states Tuesday through Thursday as an arctic airmass
settles in, producing dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills.
Record low maximum temperatures are possible across the area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind chill readings between 15 and 25 degrees
below zero are currently expected Monday and Tuesday nights, and
between 10 and 15 below zero Wednesday night.

Those with young livestock should be prepared for a three day period
of very cold and dangerous temperatures and wind chills.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.