Wind Chill Advisory 5, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
304 PM MST Tue Feb 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Tue Feb 22 2022

...A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect through mid-day
Wednesday for the entire Tri-State area...

Overview: SW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area in
this period.. on the eastern periphery of a pronounced (albeit
somewhat complex) upper level trough over the western CONUS.

Through Tonight: With cyclonic flow aloft over a vast swath of
the western CONUS.. and a rather complex upper wave developing
within (over the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest) --
confidence remains very low w/regard to precipitation
development/extent/amounts. At 21Z this afternoon a band of snow
rapidly developed over Kit Carson county, CO. As of 22Z, the
aforementioned band of snow persists.. and continues to progress
east (along I-70) toward western KS. It should be noted that, in
the presence of an Arctic airmass (i.e. large snow:liquid ratios),
small changes or differences in liquid equivalent precipitation
can equate to sizable differences in snow accumulation. At this
time.. impactful snow accumulation is not anticipated.. though
reduced visibilities assoc/w snow and blowing snow are apt to
create locally hazardous travel conditions. Breezy N-NE winds and
wind chill readings ranging anywhere from -15 to -25F will
persist across the entire Tri-State area.

Wed-Thu: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern..
expect sensible weather conditions similar to today. Wind chill
readings at/below -15F will likely persist Wed evening through Thu
morning. A (relatively) greater potential for precipitation is
anticipated Wed evening into Thu morning.. as an upper level wave
(presently in CA) progresses eastward across the Intermountain
West/Desert Southwest (Wed) and the Southern/ Central Rockies (Wed
night-Thu). Considerable variance persists with regard to
precipitation amounts.. lending considerable uncertainty to the
extent/scope of snow accumulation. At this time.. accumulations
are anticipated to range anywhere from a dusting to several
inches.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 PM MST Tue Feb 22 2022

Arctic air mass will gradually retreat and modify early in the
period. High temperatures on Friday will be in the middle 30s. The
warming trend will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the western CONUS and slowly migrates to the
Rockies. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 40s and highs on
Sunday in the middle 50s. A weak shortwave will move through on
Monday, but will have little to no impacts. The mild and dry
conditions continue into early next week. Elevated fire weather
conditions appear possible starting on Sunday, as relative
humidity drops to less than 20 percent in the afternoon in
western areas, but wind speeds will remain below critical
criteria. For Monday and Tuesday, winds do increase slightly
behind the upper wave and associated cold front, but humidity is
currently forecast to remain above 20 percent, casting doubt on
fire weather conditions being met.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Feb 22 2022

Breezy N winds will persist through the afternoon.. gradually
veering to the NE ==> ENE tonight and Wednesday morning.
Borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are anticipated to deteriorate to
MVFR late this aft/eve.. particularly at the GLD terminal.. where
light snow appears most likely.. especially during the 22-03Z
time-frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

Record low maximum temperatures are possible at the following
locations:

Wednesday February 23:

Goodland.....10 degrees set in 1965
McCook.......10 degrees set in 1914

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until noon MST /1 PM CST/ Wednesday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until noon MST Wednesday for COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until noon MST /1 PM CST/ Wednesday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...99

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