Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
301 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
as southwesterly flow over the CWA being between an upper air trough
to the west and an upper air ridge to the east. Current satellite
imagery shows high clouds over the CO counties of the CWA and those
adjacent while there are fields of popcorn cumulus clouds developing
in the remainder of the area due to daytime heating. Models show
this flow continuing through the remainder of the day with a
shortwave disturbance passing through the flow during the evening
hours. At the surface, surface low is seen over the western
NE/northeastern CO area which is causing south-southwesterly winds
across the CWA with gusts up to around 40 mph. Isolated pulse
thunderstorms look to be possible for a good portion of the CWA for
the rest of this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Effective
bulk shear looks to be rather low though a little higher than
yesterday around 20 kts in portions of the CWA. MLCAPE though looks
to be pretty low across the CWA today with values around 500 J/kg or
less. However, model forecast soundings show another day of an
inverted-V shape with DCAPE values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg.
Due to this, storms that occur today have the potential to produce a
downburst wind gust up to around 65 mph similar to yesterday though
there looks to be better coverage today for this potential for areas
in the region east of line from Cheyenne Wells to Bird City. QPF
looks to be a few hundredths of an inch at most with maybe a tenth
or two in some locations. Around midnight, a cold front looks to
begin to make its way into the CWA from the northwest. Daytime highs
currently look to be between the lower 90s and lower 100s with
tonight seeing low temperatures between the middle 50s and upper 60s.

On Tuesday, models show the southwesterly flow continuing with the
trough moving northeast past the CWA with a cutoff low developing
over central CA. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this
pattern will help bring in the monsoonal moisture from the southwest
into the region. At the surface, the cold front looks to pass
through the area during the morning and there looks to be chances
for showers and thunderstorms for southern portions of the CWA
during the afternoon that spread over the remainder of the CWA going
into the overnight hours. Model forecast soundings do not show very
good convective parameter numbers, so it does not look like severe
weather can be anticipated especially with a decent cap in place.
Winds look to be lighter than the first few days of the week and
while there are some minimum RH values in the upper teens in the
northwestern quadrant, fire weather does not look to be a concern at
this moment. Daytime high temperatures look to be between the lower
80s and lower 90s followed by overnight lows in the middle 50s to
middle 60s.

For Wednesday, forecast guidance shows the CWA taking a more west-
southwesterly flow aloft with an upper air high building over OK
during the day placing the CWA in the top part of an upper air
ridge. There is a shortwave disturbance seen passing through the
flow over the CWA during the late afternoon/evening hours. At the
surface, models show a chances of precipitation across the CWA for
most of the day thanks to a surface low forming in the over the
CO/WY border. Convective parameters seen in the latest model
forecast sounding look a bit more promising for severe weather
potential with surface CAPE approaching 1500 J/kg around 00Z. Will
be continuing to monitor this in upcoming forecasts to see if this
sign continues in future model runs. High temperatures on Tuesday
range between the lower and upper 80s followed by overnight lows in
the middle 50s to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Long range guidance suggests that ridging aloft will prevail over
the southern CONUS through the weekend.. and that the mid-
latitude westerlies will be confined to higher latitudes (> 40N).
With the Tri-State area situated on the far southern periphery of
the westerlies -- forecast confidence is below average --
particularly w/regard to precipitation chances. Above normal
temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder of the
work-week. A cooling trend is anticipated this weekend.. though
the extent/degree of cooling may highly depend upon the evolution
of upstream convection (and associated airmass modification --
i.e. evaporative cooling) in the lee of the northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Both KGLD and KMCK expect to see VFR conditions during the 18Z TAF
period. KGLD begins with southerly winds at 16G28 kts before winds
slow to around 11 kts at 02Z. By 06Z, KGLD winds expect to veer
to a northerly direction around 12 kts. There is a chance for KGLD
to see an isolated T-storm between 22Z and 06Z, but not the
greatest confidence to add that in at this time. KMCK also starts
with southerly winds at 20G30 kts before chances for vicinity
T-storms begin at 22Z. By 01Z, KMCK winds slow to around 12 kts
followed by veering to a northerly direction at 06Z when T-storm
chances look to end.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...076

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