Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
526 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #323 is in effect for southwest Nebraska
and northwest Kansas until midnight MDT/1am CDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #322 remains in effect for northeast
Colorado until 8pm MDT/9pm CDT.

Large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats. An isolated
tornado can't be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall that may cause
flash flooding is also possible, especially mainly along and east
of Highway 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to
mostly sunny mix with daytime cumulus and even some scattered storms
popping up around the area. Temperatures are currently ranging
widely from the upper 70s west into the upper 80s east.

For the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, the main wx
focus will be the threat for severe weather. All threats are in
play, along with flooding from locally heavy rainfall.

Currently, the latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor
are showing zonal flow aloft with an embedded shortwave moving east
through Colorado. At the surface, a meandering frontal boundary has
set up across the central cwa. Instability along the boundary is
already creating severe storms, that are pushing slowly eastward in
tandem to the front orientation.

The latest from the SPC mesoanalysis is showing SBCape around 2000-
3000j/kg, DCape around 1000-1200j/kg, MUCape 2000-3000j/kg and bulk
effective shear around 45-55kts with a west-northwest direction.
Storms moving in the vicinity of the boundary, tapping into these
conditions will produce storms capable of producing large hail
(2"+), damaging winds (70mph+) and even tornado potential. While the
main threats will be wind and hail, potential locally heavy rainfall
could produce flash flooding in prone areas. At this time, northeast
zones are in the spotlight due to these areas receiving several
inches of rain. As a result, a flood watch is in effect until 09z
Wednesday for Red Willow, Decatur, Norton, Graham and Sheridan
counties. A severe thunderstorm watch is currently in effect for
northeast Colorado only at this time due to slow movement of storms.
This will probably be expanded eastward as the afternoon progresses.

Latest guidance has potential several rounds of convection with the
potential for an MCS to develop and move through northern zones
later this evening. Precipitation will taper late, after 06z
Wednesday.

On Wednesday, most of the cwa will see a reprieve in rw/trw as upper
ridging works in from the west. There is a low chance for some
rw/trw in southwest zones late as a shortwave moves through the
upper ridge.

By Thursday, the region will go right back into concerns for severe
weather. SPC has a marginal/slight risk area for the cwa for the
afternoon/evening hours. Similar to the past several days, expecting
wind and hail threats. Eastern areas are under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Areas along and east of Highway 83 will have to
be monitored for flood watch potential, but will be highly dependent
on how much rain is received this afternoon/evening.

For temps, highs on Wednesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s will give
way to mid 80s to around 90F on Thursday. Overnight lows in the
short term period will range from the upper 40s west to upper 50s
east tonight, mid to upper 50s Wednesday night and for Thursday
night mainly 50s with a few spots east of Highway 83 around 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

The latest GFS/ECMWF continue to show that the main wx feature in
the extended will be the building upper ridge cresting from the
Rockies into the Plains region sunday into Monday. 850mb temps for
both days will stretch into the +30c range and higher for the
afternoon hours. This will support above normal temps for the entire
cwa.

There will be a few shortwaves moving through the upper ridge Sunday
evening and again on Monday evening, that will trigger some
scattered showers/storms. These will be enhanced by lee-side
troughing coming off the Front Range. Limited qpf/moisture inflow so
will keep pops in slight chance category.

For temps, highs on Friday will range in the lower to mid 80s. Going
into the upcoming weekend, highs on Saturday will range in the upper
80s to lower 90s. For Sunday into next Monday, above normal with mid
to upper 90s expected. Tuesday, trending lower into the 80s.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 50 west to the mid 60s
east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

For KGLD, VFR conditions thru 05z Wednesday with VCTS from 01z-
05z. From 05z-09z, IFR/VFR mix with ceilings down to around
OVC010 with VCTS. From 09z onward, VFR. Winds, variable direction
around 10kts due to site proximity to frontal boundary.

For KMCK, looking for VFR conditions thru 02z Wednesday, then
mixing with MVFR conditions as ceilings drop to BKN025-030 and
VCTS present. From 09z onward, VFR. Winds, east-northeast around
10kts, becoming north around 06z Wednesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ003-004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ081.

&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN

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