Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
130 PM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Overview: Modest NW flow aloft (~300 mb).. on the eastern
periphery of an upper level ridge (presently centered over the
Intermountain West).. will prevail through tonight. In the lower-
levels, a cold front -- presently extending southwestward from
Lake Superior to far northeast Nebraska -- will progress
southeastward into WI/IA and northern MO late this aft/eve and
overnight. The far western fringe of the frontal zone/thermal
gradient (in western Nebraska) should move little /remain near-
stationary/.. and the SFC-H85 pattern over the Tri-State area (GLD
CWA) will likely remain ill-defined. The aforementioned ridge
aloft (over the Intermountain West) will amplify and extend
eastward over the Rockies on Sat.

Today-Tonight: Challenging convective forecast. Forcing will be
confined to [potential] small amplitude waves (250-300 mb level)
in modest NNW-NW flow aloft and [perhaps] outflow emanating from
nearby and/or upstream convection in Nebraska. A west-east
oriented low- level moisture/instability axis is present over the
region.. with MLCAPE ranging from ~250 J/kg in eastern CO to
1000-1500 J/kg invof Hwy 283 (Norton/Hill City). Since 00Z.. the
HRRR has steadily trended toward decreased convective
development/coverage/intensity in southwest NE and northwest KS
this aft/eve. Given that convection allowing guidance tends to be
less reliable in weak forcing regimes.. whether or not this trend
is reasonable remains uncertain. With northerly steering flow..
diurnal development along the CO Front Range should largely be
relegated along/west of a line from Limon-Akron. Steep (8-9 C/km)
mid-level lapse rates and strong (1200-1500 J/kg) DCAPE will
foster a potential for brief/localized severe downbursts with any
updraft capable of producing lightning. Severe hail cannot be
ruled out -- mainly in northeast portions of the area where ~30 kt
effective deep layer shear overlaps greater low-level moisture/
instability -- and organized updrafts are [relatively] more likely
(21-02Z time frame).

Sat-Sat night: With upper level flow further weakening (i.e. a
reduced potential for small amplitude waves progressing over the
area).. expect dry conditions. Guidance suggests that cooler
temperatures (upper 80s) will prevail on Sat.. perhaps depending
on the degree/extent of convective airmass modification upstream
of the area this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 104 PM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022

The long term period looks to remain relatively uneventful with
above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Upper level pattern
remains stagnate with high pressure over the west which will
slowly traverse east throughout the week. Potential may exist for
some rogue diurnally driven showers and storms to develop Sunday
and Monday, but confidence is very low in this occurring.
Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible Monday and
Tuesday afternoons as RH values are currently forecasted in the
mid to upper teens west of Highway 25. The "breeziest" day appears
to be Monday thus far with sustained winds of 10-15 knots during
the afternoon, winds Tuesday currently appear to be around 10
knots.

Temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s with
the currently warmest day appearing to be Wednesday where some
locales may be able to reach the triple digits. Some cooler weather
may be in store during the latter portion of the extended due to an
approaching cold front. Mex guidance indicates temperatures in
the mid 80s, whereas the GFS has the front up across the northern
Plains still on Friday, then there is the ECMWF which keeps the
high pressure over the western CONUS in place. It appears that not
all guidance is on board with timing and evolution of the front,
but there does appear to be potential for more normal
temperatures and our next chance of precipitation into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022

VFR conditions and light/variable winds will prevail through the
majority of the TAF period at both terminals. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this afternoon and
early this evening -- mainly in the 22-02 UTC time frame. In a
synoptic pattern characterized by weak forcing throughout the
troposphere -- confidence in thunderstorm location/coverage is
well below average. Gusty/erratic winds can, of course, be
expected invof any thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031700-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1050 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022 /1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

Scattered thunderstorms may develop across portions of the area this
afternoon and evening, mainly between 3 PM and 10 PM MDT. A few
severe storms are possible. Brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph
and dime to quarter size hail are the primary hazards. Confidence in
thunderstorm location and coverage is below average. Widespread
and/or significant severe weather is NOT anticipated.

Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon in
northeast Colorado, where relative humidity readings will bottom out
around 15 percent and winds may shift to the north at 10 to 20 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via telephone or social
media.

Vincent

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