Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
744 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the area along
and north of I-70 and west of Highway 83 from McCook to Oakley
through 1 AM MDT, or 2 AM CDT. Isolated half-dollar size hail and
wind gusts to 60 mph are possible in addition to heavy rain as
storms move through the area this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

As of 1 pm CDT...12 pm MDT...skies across the Tri-State Region were
partly cloudy as some areas have cleared out while others remain
under the influence of pesky morning stratus that is lifting.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds are generally
east to northeast at 5 to 10 mph. At the surface, several remnant
outflow boundaries are present on latest surface analysis and
observations/wind directions as well as radar. Aloft, a strong
shortwave trough was visible over Montana, quickly heading southeast
through the northwest flow. This trough is what will fire storms
later today.

For this afternoon, overall quiet weather is anticipated. Cloud
cover will gradually burn off, which will leave some differential
heating boundaries/storm outflows present across the area. These
outflows boundaries will serve as the convective initiation spot
later this afternoon and evening, initially over southeastern
Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado.

Later this evening, this is when our show starts. Storms will move
southeast through the northwest flow, entering our area after 6 pm
MDT. Storms will be severe as there is plenty of instability (CAPE
of 2000 j/kg, favorable lapse rates) and wind shear (0-6 km bulk
shear of 40+ kts, 0-3 km helicity approaching 200 m2/s2 later this
evening). Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall producing
flash flooding seem to be the primary threats, but would not rule
out a tornado or two...could be the landspout variety if storms form
in our area but could also be of the supercell variety as storms
move in. Overall, could have a mixed mode of supercells as well as a
transition into a complex of storms, so the primary threats will
likely change over our area as storms morph storm modes. There may
also be a line of storms that trains over eastern Colorado,
primarily Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties, after midnight, and this
could pose a flash flood risk given the amount of moisture as well
as a stationary boundary. After the storms, stratus and fog is
anticipated over the area though am uncertain about dense fog.

For tomorrow, showers and storms once again possible, including the
threat for heavy rain in the afternoon and evening hours. Flash
flooding will be possible, particularly for areas that receive heavy
rain tonight. Most of the area should be calm during the morning and
early afternoon hours but storms will approach later in the day from
eastern Colorado. The severe threat currently appears lower as we'll
be behind storm outflow/a front and in the cooler airmass, but the
setup does favor some heavier rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

By Friday, the upper-level low center continues to be carried off to
the northeast over eastern Canada as the ridge axis sits over the
coast of the western CONUS. Abundant moisture is drawn up and
directed into our area, allowing showers and storms to continue into
much of the day Friday under mostly cloudy skies. The WPC keeps
southern portions of the area in a slight to moderate risk for heavy
rainfall into Friday, so flash flooding could become a concern. High
temperatures on Friday will range from the low 70s over our southern
counties to low 80s over northern counties. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 50s to low 60s. On Saturday, chances for showers and
storms linger. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s, primarily
over southeastern portions of the area to low 80s over
northwestern portions of the area. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. On Sunday, an upper-level low over the
Pacific begins to move towards the coast of the far northwestern
CONUS and southwestern Canada, forcing the ridge to advance
eastward and allowing for warmer and drier conditions to settle in
over our area into next week. High temperatures return to near
normal on Sunday, then back above normal through mid-week.
Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

At GLD, thunderstorms are expected to move into the area after 04Z
with the best chance of storms becoming a prevailing condition and
dropping conditions to MVFR due to lower ceilings and visibility
with heavy rain between 06-08Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will linger in the area through 10Z as conditions return to VFR
with the potential for additional storms developing after 19Z
Thursday afternoon.

At MCK, thunderstorms are expected to move into the area after 02Z
with the best chance of storms becoming a prevailing condition and
dropping conditions to MVFR due to lower ceilings and visibility
between 04-06Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms, as well as MVFR
conditions due to lower ceilings, will linger in the area though
11Z. MVFR will persist through 16Z with low ceilings and are
expected to return to VFR after 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...LOCKHART

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