Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Hot temperatures continue with a possibility of a storms across
mainly the northwest sections of the forecast area this evening
and scattered thunderstorms across the area on Saturday.

The upper ridge over the central and northern high plains region is
topped by a short wave trough tonight that will bring scattered
thunderstorms developing over the Rockies across the tri-border
region of northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska and northwest
Kansas during this evening and early overnight hours. No severe
weather is expected at this time, but gusty winds and localized
heavy rain is possible with any storms that develop.

Thunderstorm outflow may help push a weak surface boundary through
the forecast area overnight with northwest near surface flow on
the back side of a surface trough. With the surface pattern
sagging south and the upper flow turning more northwesterly across
the forecast area as the upper trough continues east across the
northern and eastern plains, the favored area for thunderstorms
development will stretch squarely across the forecast area
Saturday afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms will be
possible during that time with damaging winds being the main
threat.

By Sunday into Sunday night the upper ridge reamplifies over the
Rockies and High Plains region with high pressure also moving in
at the surface. No precipitation is expected Sunday or Sunday
night as a result.

Temperatures will be a few degrees lower on Saturday and Sunday,
but still above average for this time of year with highs in the
middle 90s to around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

An upper-level low is centered over the PNW Monday morning as high
pressure remains over Colorado and New Mexico. The low moves
eastward throughout the day on Monday, hugging the US/Canada border
with the ridge axis becoming more centered over us. Expect Monday to
be another hot day with near critical to critical fire weather
conditions, especially through a segment of the CWA centered around
the Colorado border. Temperatures will be in the triple digits with
RH values as low as 12-14% and southerly winds gusting approximately
25 mph. The low well to our north approaches our longitude Monday
night into Tuesday, bringing increased cloud cover and breezy south
winds to help keep overnight low temperatures Monday night slightly
higher than nights prior, staying in the mid-60s to mid-70s. A
slight chance for thunderstorms over the area Monday evening as a
shortwave moves through.

Winds shift northerly on Tuesday as the low continues off towards
the east-southeast over the Dakotas and into Minnesota. The ridge
briefly becomes condensed and high pressure elongates over the Four
Corners. Despite reduction to the amplitude of the ridge, afternoon
highs on Tuesday maintain triple digits over much of the area, save
for locations west of the Colorado border where highs will be in the
upper-90s. RH values again around 12-14% in some locations around
the Colorado border and in southwestern Nebraska on Tuesday with
northerly winds gusting up to around 25 mph brings another day of
near critical to critical fire weather conditions. A slight chance
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms with another shortwave moving
through, though chances keep to the southwest corner of the CWA.
Forecasted overnight lows Tuesday night are in the mid-60s to near
70 degrees.

On Wednesday, much the same with the high still positioned over the
Four Corners region and the low continuing to slide east-southeast
over the Great Lakes region. The ridge remains moderated as a low
skirts through Canada. Afternoon highs will be in the low-90s to low-
100s. RH values near 13-15% and wind gusts in the upper-teens to low-
20s(mph) for some areas keeps the need for monitoring the forecast
for elevated fire weather concerns present. A chance for storms as
another shortwave moves through Wednesday evening. Overnight lows
falls into the mid-60s to near 70.

Less agreement in the models out past Wednesday. The low over Canada
does appear to somewhat keep the ridge compressed. Timing and
placement of another low moving onshore is uncertain, but the
system, or systems, helps the center of high pressure migrate
eastward towards the end of the work week. High temperatures remain
in the 90s to low-100s with lows in the 60s and 70s. Ever so slight
improvement to the RH values lower concerns at this time for fire
weather Thursday/Friday. Chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

VFR conditions are expected with isolated thunderstorms moving
across the central high plains region this evening into the early
overnight hours.

GLD could see a few storms in the vicinity between 02-05Z while
MCK could see a few storms in the vicinity between 06-09Z. Winds
will generally remain light out of the northeast with some
afternoon gustiness and gusty winds with variable direction if
thunderstorms are in the vicinity.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ081.

&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...LOCKHART

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
522 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

COZ091-152345-
Kit Carson County CO-
522 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kit
Carson County through 545 PM MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Flagler, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Flagler around 535 PM MDT.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
404.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10316 3917 10315 3936 10315 3945 10303
      3919 10281 3907 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 238DEG 21KT 3921 10313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Trigg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

COZ091-160000-
Kit Carson County CO-
545 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kit
Carson County through 600 PM MDT...

At 544 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Flagler, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Kit
Carson County.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
410.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10316 3917 10315 3941 10316 3943 10315
      3928 10275 3906 10309 3913 10315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 231DEG 15KT 3918 10309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Trigg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

COZ091-160030-
Kit Carson County CO-
559 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kit
Carson County through 630 PM MDT...

At 559 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Flagler, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Kit
Carson County.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
410.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 10309 3928 10276 3906 10309 3921 10316
      3923 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 244DEG 5KT 3917 10307

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Trigg

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