Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
911 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Severe thunderstorm Watch 444 was allowed to expire. The area of
storms currently moving across the western portion of the forecast
area has shown rainfall rates between 1.5 and 2 inches per hour.
Gusty winds are still expected with storms with the concern for
storms shifting towards heavy rainfall that will transition the
area through the late evening and early overnight hours as storms
move eastward from eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Tonight...a strong weather disturbance is forecast to move off of
the Palmer Divide and into far eastern Colorado in the 4 PM MDT to 8
PM MDT timeframe, continuing east into adjacent counties of
northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska through about 9 PM
MDT (10 PM CDT). Supercell thunderstorms are anticipated with all
modes of severe weather possible, including locally heavy rainfall
(precip water values of 1.3-1.6 inches with storm motions of 10 to
15 mph). After about 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT) the supercells develop
into a cluster of storms continuing to the east and out of the area
several hours after midnight. The severe weather threat transitions
to strong outflow winds and a continued threat for locally heavy
rainfall and threat for flash flooding (precipitable water values of
1.5-2.0 inches). Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper
50s to upper 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...the forecast area is expected to be under
subsidence in the wake of last nights system for most of the day
until the next weather system moves into far eastern Colorado near
or slightly after 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT). Any thunderstorms with this
system look to last long enough to move into adjacent counties of
northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska during the evening
before generally dissipating shortly after midnight as they continue
east. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to upper
60s.

Friday-Friday night...the upper level ridge center slides to the
west over New Mexico and the Texas panhandle with ridging aloft
building. Rainfall chances are generally confined to the Cheyenne
Ridge and Palmer Divide areas in the afternoon (Flager area),
sliding southeast into the Cheyenne Wells, Tribune and Leoti areas
during the evening. High temperatures continue in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Low temperatures fall into the lower to upper 60s.

Saturday...a 600dam high pressure center is forecast to be over
south central Colorado. A lack of moisture will prevent any
thunderstorms from forming. High temperatures rise a few degrees
into the lower 90s to around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

With an amplifying ridge coming off of the Rockies this weekend,
Saturday night’s low temperatures will remain in the 60s to 70s
while Sunday’s high temperatures will be in the triple digits.
Our western counties will have an increased fire weather risk on
Sunday as RH values will be in the teens and winds will gust over
20kts.

At 250mb, a trough along the U.S. and Canada boarder will begin
pushing the ridge to the east. As these two features collide, the
flow will become more zonal and begin taking on a slight northern
component around the start of the workweek. This will help cooler
temperatures enter the Tri-State area Sunday night into Monday.
Most of the CWA can expect low temperatures Sunday night to be 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Cooler temperatures will be present
throughout the early half of next week with high temperatures
being in the 90s from Monday to Wednesday. Nighttime low
temperatures will be in the 60s.

Monday evening will be our first decent chance of rain in the long
range forecast. Tuesday evening also has a chance of
precipitation, but confidence is not as high with these showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

An area of showers and thunderstorms will move across the central
High Plains region this evening between 02-09Z with VFR
conditions becoming MVFR due to lower ceilings and some reductions
in visibility due to heavy rainfall during that time.

Showers will move into the vicinity of GLD around 02Z with
intermittent thunderstorms likely between 03-05Z, dissipating to
showers in the vicinity between 05-08Z.

Showers will move into the vicinity of MCK around 04Z with
intermittent thunderstorms between 07-09Z, dissipating to showers
in the vicinity between 09-11Z.

Both locations should be free of any showers or low clouds through
Thursday morning and into the early afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
927 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
927 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022 /1027 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

An area of thunderstorms will continue to move eastward out of
eastern Colorado and across northwest Kansas and far southwest
Nebraska from late this evening through the early morning hours
Thursday morning.

Hazards with these storms include 40 to 50 mph winds with a few
higher gusts possible in addition to heavy rainfall that could
approach 2 inch per hour rates and lead to areas of flash flooding,
especially in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon
into the evening for locations generally east of a line from Wray to
Leoti. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday afternoon for
locations along and west of Kansas Highway 27. Heat index values
around 103 degrees are expected across Norton and Graham counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
929 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-027-NEZ079-070415-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-Yuma County CO-Wallace KS-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
929 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Cheyenne
County in east central Colorado, southeastern Yuma County in
northeastern Colorado, eastern Kit Carson County in east central
Colorado, western Wallace County in west central Kansas, Cheyenne,
western Sherman Counties in northwestern Kansas and southwestern
Dundy Counties in southwestern Nebraska through 1015 PM MDT/1115 PM
CDT/...

At 929 PM MDT/1029 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles east of Haigler to
11 miles southeast of Cheyenne Wells. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Cheyenne
County in east central Colorado, southeastern Yuma County in
northeastern Colorado, eastern Kit Carson County in east central
Colorado, western Wallace County in west central Kansas, Cheyenne,
western Sherman Counties in northwestern Kansas and southwestern
Dundy Counties in southwestern Nebraska, including the following
locations... Hale, Laird and Beecher Island.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 14.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 432 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 141 and 221, and between mile
markers 223 and 224.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding and reduced visibility. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 10155 3870 10196 3869 10252 4008 10219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 251DEG 16KT 4000 10178 3871 10219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MRC

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