Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
220 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Upper ridge has retreated into the southern plains, and the
central plains will come more under the influence of a northern
stream trough moving out of the northern Rockies tonight and
Saturday. CAMs show convective initiation in northeast Colorado
later this afternoon in response to the falling upper heights,
with possibly more isolated convection further east towards the
Kansas border area which would be more associated with cyclonic
convergence around a broad surface low in northwest Kansas.
Colorado convection will eventually become dominant and move
across southwest Nebraska this evening. Strong signal from the
models that this cluster of storms will generate an outflow
boundary that moves across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska
this evening with wind gusts of 60 mph or greater likely.
Additional, but more isolated, convection may form on the outflow
boundary as it moves through northwest Kansas. Severe threat will
be over by about 06z as main cluster moves east, with only
isolated lingering showers/thunderstorms after midnight as the
cold front begins making its way through the forecast area. Low
temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.

Aforementioned cold front will continue through the area Saturday
morning with breezy to windy north winds which continue through
the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be closer to normal
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Might see a few isolated
showers develop across far southern areas during the afternoon.
Rain chances will increase again in western and southern areas
Saturday night with another shortwave trough moving through the
mean trough axis. Best chances appear to stay across southeast
Colorado and into southwest Kansas. Instability is near zero with
only a few pockets of minimal MUCAPE, so thinking mostly showers
or light rain with only a few rumbles of thunder. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the 50s.

Sunday will be a bit cooler with post frontal upslope regime at
the surface and more of a zonal flow aloft. Light rain/shower
chances continue across southern/western areas, but slowly move
south through the day with better chances remaining closer to the
Front Range. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s, coolest
where clouds and precipitation persist. Precipitation chances will
continue to gradually move south Sunday night and into Monday
morning with only slight chances remaining. Low temperatures
Sunday night will be mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s
possible in northeast Colorado.

Monday will see northwest flow aloft develop as the upper trough
moves axis moves further east into the northern plains. Shortwave
trough moves through in the afternoon with convection developing
near the front range. Storm motions will have a large southerly
component, but might say a stray storm make into far northeast
Colorado in the afternoon. Instability will be very limited
further east so no severe storms are expected. High temperatures
will be in the 70s and 80s, coolest in southern areas. Low
temperatures Monday night will once again fall into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Long range guidance suggests little, if any, change to the
synoptic pattern in this period.. with ridging aloft over the
southern CONUS and the mid-latitude westerlies confined to higher
latitudes (>35-40N). With this in mind, expect near-or-above
normal temperatures. Precipitation (i.e. convection) chances on
any given day will highly depend upon the position/orientation and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies. Given that the Tri-State
area is progged to be situated on, or very near, the southern
periphery of the westerlies.. considerable uncertainty exists
w/regard to precip chances. At this time, predominately dry
conditions are anticipated. Climatologically, diurnal convection
is [relatively] more likely in northeast Colorado -- in closer
proximity to the Palmer Divide and Colorado Front Range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

VFR expected to prevail through this afternoon at both KGLD and
KMCK. Thunderstorms will move out of northeast Colorado and
across both terminals this evening, about 02z through 05z. Gusty
surface winds will be the main hazard with these thunderstorms,
especially at KMCK where may see gusts approaching 50kts. Storms
will move out of the area by 06z with winds subsiding overnight.
However, winds will increase again shortly after 12z Saturday
morning behind a cold front, with gusts to 30-35kts by mid
morning. May briefly see some MVFR ceilings as well behind the
front.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
340 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
340 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /440 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and west of the Colorado Kansas border around 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT),
moving east and northeast into northwest Kansas and extreme southwest
Nebraska soon after. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to continue over the area through about midnight before
exiting the area. The primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts up
to 65 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter.

Heat index values around 103 degrees are expected this afternoon
across Norton and Graham counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with thunderstorms Saturday
night for locations generally south of a line from Flagler to Leoti.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible in Yuma county
Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT). We would
appreciate reports of severe weather via telephone and social media.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
441 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             6 NW ARAPAHOE           38.91N 102.25W
06/24/2022  E0.25 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

CJC

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