Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Goodland, KS

781 
WWUS83 KGLD 151645
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED WITHIN THE TRI-
STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.Southerly winds gusting up to 30 mph are expected to develop in
areas along the Colorado border in the Tri-State area this afternoon
and persist into the early evening. Minimum relative humidity 
values across the Tri-State area look to drop to between 13 and 16
percent. The combination of these forecasted winds and relative 
humidity values along with dry fuels will cause concern for rapid 
fire growth should a wild fire occur this afternoon.

COZ253-254-KSZ013-027-041-NEZ081-160100-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0003.220315T1800Z-220316T0100Z/
Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Sherman-Wallace-Greeley-Red Willow-
1045 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 /1145 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 013...027...041...081...253 AND 254...

* Affected Area...In Colorado...Fire Weather Zone 253 Kit Carson 
  and Fire Weather Zone 254 Cheyenne. In Kansas...Fire Weather 
  Zone 013 Sherman...Fire Weather Zone 027 Wallace and Fire 
  Weather Zone 041 Greeley. In Nebraska...Fire Weather Zone 081 
  Red Willow.

* Winds...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gld

385 
WWUS83 KGLD 160055
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
655 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022


COZ253-254-KSZ013-027-041-NEZ081-160200-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220316T0100Z/
Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Sherman-Wallace-Greeley-Red Willow-
655 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 /755 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
013... 027...041...081...253 AND 254...

Southerly winds up to 10 mph will continue this evening with
gradually increasing relative humidities. As a result, the Red
Flag Warning will be allowed to expire on time. 

$$

For more information from NOAA/National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gld

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022

The forecast focus in the short term will transition from the
windy conditions today to the warm, dry, and breezy conditions on
Tuesday.

The low pressure system that brought cooler temperatures and windy
conditions to the region today will move through the southern
Plains and towards the Gulf Coast tonight through Tuesday. The
upper ridge over the Intermountain region today moves into the
Central Rockies and High Plains tonight through early Tuesday and
flattens through the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a series
of short wave troughs embedded in the upper flow move across the
western U.S.

Surface high pressure drops south through the High Plains tonight,
allowing the winds to slacken and turn to the southwest as a lee
trough deepens along the front range early Tuesday. That lee
trough continues to deepen through the day on Tuesday with the
pressure gradient supporting gusty south to southwest winds across
the area. These winds will help conditions become warm and dry
with highs back up in the 60s and relative minimum relative
humidity values dropping into the teens for a few hours. Lowest RH
values will be over the far southwest corner of the forecast area
with the highest winds speeds over far eastern Colorado into
extreme southwest Nebraska and far western Kansas. Winds could
gust around 25 mph along with the dry conditions that may produce
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across far
eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Had mulled over the idea
of a Fire Weather Watch for the afternoon hours across that same
area, but confidence was too low for any widespread critical fire
weather conditions for a long enough time period to meet the
criteria for a Red Flag Warning.

The surface trough detaches from the Front Range and begins moving
across the forecast area Tuesday night ahead of the next system
that brings cooler temperatures and a wintry mix of precipitation
to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022

In the extended period GFS/ECMWF models have an upper level
trough east of the region with an upper level low developing
across MO region on Friday. At the surface, High pressure builds
into the region on Friday. On Saturday a surface trough is
projected across the CWA by 12Z. On Sunday a surface trough is
across eastern Colorado region. On Monday a surface cold front is
projected to be across the CWA. Models differing at this time and
confidence lower on location of system by Monday.

An Upper ridge develops back across the region by Saturday into
Sunday ahead of the next system. Models having differences on far
south the upper level low and surface low will develop with this
system. The ECMWF digs the system further south into southern
NM/west TX region. This would have a significantly difference on
temperatures and precipitation. Elected to increase pops slightly
Sunday Night into Monday over southern sections of CWA for now to
accommodate for this system. We will need to monitor and likely
have adjustments as this system develops at the end of the weekend
into early next week. We will have to continue to monitor fire
weather potential on Sunday as well ahead of the next system.
Currently RH values will be close to criteria but a day to monitor
with the increased winds.

Temperatures in the extended forecast are expected to be warmer
from Friday through Sunday. Temperatures mainly in the middle 50s
to lower 60s on Friday. Temperatures will increase to the lower 60s
to lower 70s on Saturday. On Sunday high temperatures will
increase to the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Expect overnight low temperatures to be mainly in the middle 20s
to lower 30s Friday Night and in the lower 20s to lower 30s
Friday Night. Saturday Night lows will be mainly in the 30s.
Sunday Night low temperatures will forecast to be in the lower 30s
to middle 40s.

Therefore, currently main concern in the extended forecast at
this time is with strong system approaching late on Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022

VFR conditions are expected throughout the duration of the period.
Light and variable winds will persist through the morning before
becoming southwesterly. Winds will become breezy during the late
morning with gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
714 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-160115-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
714 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 /814 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
Tuesday afternoon, mainly along and west of Kansas Highway 27 where
relative humidity values will drop to between 15 and 20 percent and
south southwest winds will gust up to 30 mph. Caution should be used
if burning outdoors.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the forecast
area Saturday afternoon with another round of elevated fire weather
conditions Sunday afternoon mainly along and west of Kansas Highway
27.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.