Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
352 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Strong winds have developed across the local area today as an
intensifying area of low pressure across the intermountain west
has helped to tighten up the pressure gradient across the region.
As this low continues to intensify and eventually push a cold
front across the local area overnight...expect increasing winds
after dark...with frequent wind gusts of 60 to 65 mph possible
for a couple of hours ahead of the aforementioned cold front. As
a result...expect a windy night...and a high wind warning remains
in effect for the entire area through 5 AM CDT. In addition...the
winds have been picking up some dust across the area...with a
blowing dust advisory now in effect for our far western counties
where satellite imagery is picking up on some blowing dust and
there has been at least 2 known road closures. Do not expect much
improvement in these conditions until the winds subside
significantly...which is not expected to be until the early
morning hours Saturday.

With the strong winds and warm temperatures this afternoon...critical
fire weather conditions are also being observed across portions
of the local area...and satellite has picked up on the possibility
of a couple small fires across our western counties...with a Red
Flag warning in effect for areas generally along and west of
highway 281 until 9 PM CDT...and while relative humidity values
should begin to recover some late evening...winds are only
expected to get stronger as the previously mentioned surge of
southerly winds crosses the local area after midnight.

In addition to the wind...dust and fire weather concerns...there
remains 2 distinct chances for thunderstorms across the area from
late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. The first
comes near the dryline where some CU is developing this afternoon.
So far this CU has been benign...but some of the CAMS are trying
to develop a few distinct storms near this boundary and quickly
fading them out as they track north northeast. If a storm or two
near the dryline does develop and clip western portions of our
area...all severe types will be possible with large
hail...damaging winds...and even an isolated tornado possible.
Later tonight...there will be a second distinct chance for
thunderstorms along the main cold front as it crosses the local
area...with some bowing of this line in model data hinting at
mainly a wind threat. That said...if winds with these storms do
not reach severe levels...winds ahead of them might...as
widespread 60 to 65 mph wind gusts are possible for an hour or two
just ahead of the main cold front.

After the cold front clears the area early Saturday morning...dry
weather is anticipated for several days as any wrap around
moisture is expected to stay north of the local area and any
redevelopment along cold front during the afternoon hours is
expected to be east of the local area. That said...with continued
breezy/windy conditions and drier air filtering in behind the
front...fire weather conditions will once again be a concern
Saturday...and issued a fire weather watch to cover this.

High pressure will then gradually build across the area over the
course of next week...with the next small chance for some precip
not coming until the end of next week when a disturbance from the
west reaches the area. Before high pressure really establishes
itself aloft...a couple of seasonably cool days with near freezing
morning temps are possible Monday and Tuesday...before
temperatures modify and return to above normal values by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Very strong southerly winds will continue to intensify across the
region this afternoon...with peak gusts coming during the evening
hours with gusts to near 50KTS possible at both terminals. In
addition...could see some blowing dust that will temporarily
reduce visibilities at either terminal through around 23/06Z...but
given the uncertainty for any widespread reductions...did not
mention BLDU in either TAF at this time.

Expect some isolated convection to form to the west of
KEAR...with an outside shot of it reaching as far east as KEAR
this evening...but think the better chance will come in the
23/06-23/09 time frame when a cold front tracks from west to east
across the local area. Could see some MVFR CIGS either with TSRAs
along the front...or just in its wake for a couple of hours...but
mostly sunny skies and prevailing VFR conditions are expected to
return after daybreak. The other main concern is the potential for
some LLWS ahead of the cold front late tonight...and increased
both the height (to 2KFT) and magnitude (65KTS) per latest
sounding data. In fact...screaming winds to near 80KTS are evident
near 4KFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 5 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NEZ040-041-046>049-061>064-073>077-082>087.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060>062-072>075-082>084.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ060-072-082.

KS...High Wind Warning until 5 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
239 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231945-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
239 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong southerly winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gusts to around 65 MPH
will continue across the local area today and tonight. Some of
the strongest winds will not develop until after dark, just ahead
of an approaching cold front...when frequent gusts of 60 to 65
MPH are possible. As a result, a High Wind Warning is in effect
for the entire area through 5 AM Saturday.

These strong winds coupled with low relative humidity values will
also create dangerous fire weather conditions for most areas
along and west of Highway 281...where a Red Flag Warning is in
effect until 9 PM CDT. In addition...these strong winds have the
capability of producing areas of blowing dust...which could result
in temporary visibility restrictions...and a blowing dust advisory
is now in effect for Dawson, Gosper and Furnas counties through 5
AM CDT.

Finally...there is a chance for a couple of rounds of
thunderstorms across the local area late this afternoon and again
overnight. The overall-greatest risk is focused within counties
west of the Highway 281 corridor. The initial round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop between 5 PM and 10 PM...
mainly west of a line from Plainville, KS to Ord, NE, where the
main threats would be hail to around the size of ping pong balls,
damaging wind gusts to around 70 MPH, and a potential tornado. A
second round of thunderstorms is then expected with an approaching
cold front...which will not reach western portions of the local
area until after midnight...and likely gradually dissipate as it
moves east. The primary threat with thunderstorms along the cold
front will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday will see strong winds again gradually shifting from the
south to the northwest with gusts to around 40 to 45 MPH
possible. These strong winds combined with minimum relative
humidity values below 20 percent prompted the issuance of a fire
weather watch for Saturday...which is in effect from 1 PM until 8
PM CDT.

Additional fire weather concerns are expected to persist across at
least parts of the local area into next week and will be assessed
one day at a time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail, wind damage, or
tornadoes with the possible storms late this afternoon and
overnight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

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