Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Primary forecast challenges are severe thunderstorm and fire weather
concerns today, then occasional low to moderate rain/storm chances
this weekend into next week.

Summary: By far the greatest focus of this forecast will be in the
first 12 hours due to the potential for severe thunderstorms, and
perhaps a brief period of critical fire weather in the far W behind
a surging cold front. An initially broken line of thunderstorms will
develop/move in from the W/SW this afternoon, then spread E/NE and
increase in coverage. Damaging wind gusts and large hail look to be
the primary threats. Most, if not all, of the severe convection will
be over by 10-11PM, and dry conditions CWA-wide should return by
midnight. Friday through most of the day Saturday look to be dry and
comfortable, with highs in the 70s-80s, relatively light winds, and
limited humidity. A bit of an active pattern resumes as early as
late Sat aftn or eve, but more likely Sat night...as a series of
fairly weak disturbances move through in the zonal/NW upper flow and
interact with broad baroclinic zone draped across the Central U.S.
Models appear to be in decent agreement regarding the potential for
a stronger storm system and push of cold air late next week.

Forecast Details Beyond This Evening:
Have PoPs exiting the far SE CWA by 09Z, but think most of the
stronger activity will be over by ~04Z. Winds will decr overnight,
and with clearing skies, expect a much cooler Fri AM with lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Fri daytime hours should be very pleasant
owing to plentiful sunshine, low humidity, lgt winds out of the W-N
at 10-15 mph, and highs near 80F.

Sat also looks to be a fairly pleasant and dry for most of the day.
However, recent model trends suggest incr chcs for shwrs/storms to
dev along a weak cold front that may bec draped across portions of
our Neb. zones. This would be mainly after 4-5pm. Models also
indicate additional LLJ driven shwrs/tstms Sat night, but these may
focus a bit further S across KS. Severe chcs are not great, but not
zero, either. CAPE will likely be quite limited Sat aftn/eve...but
may incr overnight along with better shear. Parts of the area are in
a Day 3 Marginal Risk, with the Slight Risk primarily SE of the CWA.

Not terribly concerned with pcpn chcs Sun into Mon...and temps will
remain pleasant (near to just above normal), with highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s, and lows comfortably in the upper 40s to 50s. This
alone is often indicative of limited humidity. Models generally
trend a bit warmer and potentially more active towards the middle of
next week...ahead of a stronger storm system that could force a
significant cold front through the area towards the end of next week
(Day 8-9). Magnitude of front and climo would suggest a strong-
severe tstm chc with the front, but details regarding moisture
quality, lapse rates, etc. are far too uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Main concern in this TAF window will be the line of storms moving
eastward across central Nebraska. This will affect EAR shortly and
GRI within the next couple hours. The main threat will be briefly
enhanced west-northwesterly winds behind the front.

Then skies will clear tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
229 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
229 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into the evening hours. Some of these will be severe...with hail
up to 2 inches in diameter winds gusts in excess of 70 mph
possible. In addition...an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The main timeframe for severe weather will be until 11pm.

In addition to thunderstorms, near critical fire weather
conditions are expected this afternoon for areas along and west of
Highway 183.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Saturday night, and
will continue off and on periodically through the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed late this afternoon and
into the evening hours. Please relay reports of hail of any size
as well as damaging wind gusts.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
740 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NEZ047-061-062-074-075-130115-
Buffalo NE-Adams NE-Howard NE-Hall NE-Kearney NE-
740 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Adams, eastern
Kearney, southeastern Buffalo, southeastern Howard and Hall Counties
through 815 PM CDT...

At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cairo to near Prosser to near Holstein.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Cairo around 745 PM CDT.
  Doniphan, Alda and St. Libory around 755 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Grand Island,
Hastings and Hansen.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 289 and 317.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 9828 4046 9840 4037 9884 4071 9879
      4114 9857 4116 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 237DEG 39KT 4099 9854 4073 9860 4052 9868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shawkey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
746 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

KSZ006-007-018-130115-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-
746 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Jewell,
southern Smith and northwestern Osborne Counties through 815 PM
CDT...

At 746 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gaylord, or 27 miles east of Phillipsburg, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Smith Center around 755 PM CDT.
  Bellaire around 800 PM CDT.
  Lebanon around 805 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 9887 3948 9895 3957 9905 3970 9897
      3988 9859 3975 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 219DEG 47KT 3965 9883

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shawkey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
759 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

KSZ006-007-NEZ075-076-085-130130-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Adams NE-Webster NE-Clay NE-
759 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Jewell,
northeastern Smith, southwestern Clay, Webster and southeastern Adams
Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Roseland to 7 miles north of Inavale to
near Lebanon. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Roseland and Ayr around 805 PM CDT.
  Cowles around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Blue Hill,
Glenvil, Burr Oak and Rosemont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 9865 4018 9869 4053 9857 4058 9821
      4025 9829 3977 9826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 254DEG 28KT 4048 9852 4020 9861 3983 9860

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shawkey