Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
501 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 459 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

A quick look at radar shows some showers and thunderstorms starting
to move into the area from the north and west and affecting areas
mainly along and north of I-80. Models don't have these lasting too
long into the morning hours. Once the showers move out of the local
area...ridging aloft today will help to keep us hot again with highs
similar to yesterday and dew points similar to yesterday as
well...so a continued muggy feel. A Heat Advisory has been issued
for north central Kansas and Furnas county for heat index values as
high as 107 degrees this afternoon.

Later today a robust shortwave will pass through the ridge and kick
off a sfc trof to our west. This will bring decent precip chances to
the area tonight. Some of these storms may be severe tonight. Models
show an abundance of MUCAPE (around 4,000+ J/kg) and modest deep
layer shear at around 35 kts. While there is a decent CAP across the
local area this afternoon, forcing from this wave should help to
trigger some storms this evening and tap into the abundance of CAPE.
Even though the deep layer shear isn't the strongest, CAPE is
still sufficient enough to support large hail to around the size
of ping- pong balls. Soundings are showing pwats around 1.5" and
DCAPE greater than 1,000 J/kg, which would support severe wind
gusts to around 70 mph.

Monday will be the hottest day of the year with potential record
highs for both Grand Island and Hastings. See the climate section
below for details. Highs are expected to be over 100 degrees across
the board and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area.
Aloft we will be in southwest flow between the main ridge which is
now to the east, and a large trof to the west. With a tight pressure
gradient at the sfc, expect a breezy day with winds gusting to
around 25-30 mph. This will help with the feel of the heat a little
bit.

Tuesday will be hot again, though not as hot as Monday, with highs
mainly in the 90s. With the approaching trof from the west, a cold
front is expected to swing through mid to late day and bring our
next best chance for precip Tuesday night. Behind the cold front
temps will be closer to normal, in the mid 80s, on Wednesday. As the
upper low/trof lifts north a second quick piece of energy swings
through the base of the trof Wednesday night and could clip Kansas
with some precip, though this is fairly low confidence at this
point.

The reprieve from the heat is short lived as heat returns with
ridging building to the west ahead of the next trof. Dry weather
reigns and highs climb back into the 90s Thursday and Friday. The
ridge moves overhead by Saturday and highs are once again pushing
100 degrees most places. Early indications are that Sunday could be
another record day over 100 degrees (like Monday), but this is still
a ways out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Winds will
remain modest at around 10 kts out of the southeast and east
through the end of the period. Ridging aloft is keeping conditions
rather quiet across the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Monday will be a HOT day with record highs possible for Grand Island
and Hastings.

The forecast high for GRI is 104 degrees and the current record is
104 degrees set in 1922.

The forecast high for HSI is 104 degrees and the current record is
100 set in 1952.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ082.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Shawkey
CLIMATE...Shawkey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
517 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
517 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning mainly along and
north of Highway 6.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon from 1 PM to 8 PM
for north central Kansas and Furnas county for heat index values
up to 107.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected tonight
mainly between 9 PM and 3 AM. A few strong to severe storms are
possible. The main threats would be hail to around the size of
ping pong balls and wind gusts to around 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday will be the hottest day of the season so far with triple
digits expected across South Central Nebraska and North Central
Kansas. Heat index values may reach 109 degrees in some
locations. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday afternoon
from 1 PM to 8 PM.

Monday will also support near critical fire weather conditions
during the afternoon thanks to breezy winds gusting to around 25
to 30 MPH and relative humidity values less than 25 percent for a
majority of the area.

Tuesday night potentially brings another shot at thunderstorms
as a cold front moves into the area. Predictability is low for
strong to severe thunderstorms at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or damaging winds.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

NEZ060-061-072-073-120615-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Dawson NE-Gosper NE-
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Phelps,
southwestern Buffalo, northeastern Gosper and southeastern Dawson
Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Johnson Lake, or near Lexington, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Overton around 100 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Elm Creek.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 226 and 258.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 9992 4085 9935 4044 9934 4053 9998
      4070 9998 4070 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 277DEG 41KT 4073 9982

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
502 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

NEZ060>062-121045-
Buffalo NE-Hall NE-Dawson NE-
502 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Buffalo, east central
Dawson and southwestern Hall Counties through 545 AM CDT...

At 502 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elm Creek to 7 miles northeast of
Riverdale to near Shelton. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Shelton around 505 AM CDT.
  Riverdale around 520 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Kearney, Wood
River and Gibbon.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 267 and 304.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 9954 4091 9931 4093 9900 4092 9851
      4070 9851 4070 9872 4069 9873 4065 9890
      4066 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 273DEG 37KT 4078 9938 4086 9905 4078 9879

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rossi

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