Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
120 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Along with the departing thunderstorms this morning, the severe
weather threat Sunday evening is the primary forecast concern.
Active weather will continue through the week with weak shortwaves
moving across the area in northwesterly to zonal flow aloft.
Wednesday continues to look mostly dry in between systems and
there are indications of potentially drier weather next weekend as
well.

Today and Tonight...
Most of the precipitation and thunderstorm activity has moved off
to the southeast in the form of an MCS over eastern Kansas. Even
with mid-level cloud cover expected over the area much of the day,
temperatures are still anticipated to climb into the upper 70s and
80s today. A surface shortwave trough extending out of northeast
Colorado and an upper level shortwave over the region will be the
impetus for more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main threat from these storms will be large hail, but damaging
winds are certainly possible as well. Current thinking is that the
more severe weather will be mostly to the southwest of the area as
that is where the trough will be closest to a strengthening
surface low moving east from the Texas/Oklahoma border.
Thunderstorms will likely initiate around 3 or 4 PM and probably
last until shortly after midnight.

Monday...
Expect a slightly cooler day with mostly dry conditions into the
afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the 70s in most
locations and into the low 80s in north central Kansas. A surface
trough moving east across the area will bring thunderstorm chances
to the area again, mainly during the evening and overnight, but
these currently are not expected to be severe.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
Another shortwave will move across the area, bringing more
thunderstorm chances to the area. While still a little early to
say based on lack of model consensus of instability, there is a
chance for these storms to be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Wednesday is expected to be dry with highs in the
70s.

Thursday through Saturday...
Another system will move through Thursday with increasing
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening. Although still
uncertain on timing and placement, model guidance shows pretty
good instability, so the chance for severe storms is there. Friday
and Saturday look to be drier but slight chance for precipitation
is in the forecast for both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

General overview:
This is a rather complex TAF period, not only with regard to
tricky-to-pin-down thunderstorm chances (and a window of
opportunity for severe storms mainly this evening), but also the
possibility for perhaps several hours of sub-VFR ceiling mainly
late in the period late tonight into Monday morning. Overall
though, the majority of the period should prevail VFR with
relatively light winds near-to-below 10KT (except for any
enhancements from thunderstorm outflow). Read on for more element-
specific detail.

Thunderstorm potential/timing:
Right out of the gate, have a 1-2 hour TEMPO going for a batch of
passing non-severe thunderstorms which are in the process of
departing KEAR and are just arriving toward KGRI. The main threat
is brief heavy rain/maybe small hail. Once this batch of storms
passes, expect a potentially several-hours-long lull until the
next round of activity might move in from the west-northwest this
evening. This potential next round is JUST far enough out in time
that confidence in "exact details" is still a bit shaky, so have
the entire 00-06Z time frame covered with a generic "vicinity"
(VCTS) group for now, as later issuances can hopefully refine
better for possible TEMPO or prevailing conditions. Please note
that IF thunderstorms do affect KEAR/KGRI this evening they could
be severe, as both large hail and 50+KT gusts cannot be ruled out
(especially if storms form into an organized complex). At least
for now, have left out any official mention of rain/storms beyond
06Z, but please note the chance is non-zero that an isolated
shower/storm could pass through.

Ceiling/visibility:
Obviously ceiling and/or visibility could at least briefly drop to
sub-VFR during any thunderstorm activity, the somewhat greater
confidence scenario is that a deck of low clouds will materialize
Monday morning, with both IFR/MVFR ceiling possible. For now will
stick with an MVFR ceiling from 11Z onward, although it should
gradually rise through the last hours of the period. Visibility-
wise, cannot rule out some patchy fog mainly 11-15Z, but
confidence is fairly low so have only "hinted" with 6SM BR.

Winds:
Not accounting for any thunderstorm-related effects/outflow, there
are no major concerns as sustained speeds should largely average
near-to-below 10KT. Direction should generally prevail
southerly/southeasterly this afternoon-evening and then more
north-northwesterly later this evening into Tuesday behind a weak
cold front and departing convection.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
155 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

KSZ005-051930-
Phillips KS-
155 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Phillips County
through 230 PM CDT...

At 155 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Speed, or 11 miles southwest of Phillipsburg, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Speed around 205 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Glade and Kirwin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9961 3965 9963 3979 9963 3991 9920
      3957 9907
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 252DEG 18KT 3962 9947

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Wesely

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             7 S GLADE               39.58N 99.32W
06/05/2022  M1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
236 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             4 SW SPEED              39.64N 99.47W
06/05/2022  M2.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK PICTURE, TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             1 N STOCKTON            39.46N 99.27W
06/05/2022  M0.70 INCH       ROOKS              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
303 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

NEZ064-077-052030-
York NE-Fillmore NE-
303 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern York
and northeastern Fillmore Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Exeter, or 14 miles southeast of York, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern York
and northeastern Fillmore Counties.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 364 and 365.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 9756 4077 9757 4083 9737 4048 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 268DEG 26KT 4068 9749

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Rossi