Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

The main concern in the near term is the chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms that moved
across the area earlier today have exited the region.  There is
concern that the morning convection may have impacted the potential
for initial development of thunderstorms.

Temperatures have risen into the 80s across much of the area with a
few areas in the 90s.  Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid-60s
across much of the area.  An upper level trough continues to move
across the area this afternoon and a cold front will be moving
through later this afternoon. SBCAPE values of 3000 J/kg, MUCAPE
values of 3000 J/kg, and DCAPE around 1000+ J/kg are expected
this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km and decent
shear will be conducive for storm development. Storms are expected
to develop along the cold front with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary threats. Storms are expected to become
more of a line with damaging winds and an isolated tornado as the
main hazards. The other concern is a small chance for some blowing
dust as the cold front moves in and/or outflow kicks up dust and
carries it. Storm chances continue overnight, clearing out by
daybreak.

Wednesday, zonal flow will be in place over the area.  Temperatures
will be a little cooler than today, with highs in the low 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday, an upper trough will drop into the Central
Plains from the northwest.  The area may get clipped with a few
showers and thunderstorms in the northeastern portion of the area.
Precipitation chances are low at this point in time.  Highs Thursday
will be in the 90s.  Cooler air pushes into the region Friday, with
highs ranging from the low 60s in  the northwest to the low 70s in
the southeast.

Friday evening through the weekend, the upper trough expands west to
east from western Montana to New England.  A few disturbances are
expected to move through the area during this time which could give
us a few rain showers.  Little to no accumulation is expected at
this point in time.  Cooler temperatures persist with highs in the
60s and 70s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Main concern for any thunderstorms approaching the terminals will
be this evening, but confidence in any activity making it that far
north isn't on the high side...as some model keep the brunt
of things to the south. Once this storm threat passes, dry
conditions are forecast for the rest of this TAF period. Current
easterly winds are expected to turn more northerly this evening,
then remaining NNWrly through the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
181200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
348 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will move into the region late this afternoon through
the evening, kicking off showers and thunderstorms. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible with hail to the size of
golfballs and 70 mph winds being the primary hazards. An isolated
tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. There is a possibility of
some blowing dust being picked up as the cold front moves through
and ahead of any storms. Be prepared for some reductions to
visibility where blowing dust is occurring.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is another chance for thunderstorms Thursday, particularly
in the northeastern part of the area. A few storms may become
strong to severe.

There are slight chances of thunderstorms over the weekend and
into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather this evening
to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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