Wind Advisory 10, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
220 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/
/Through Tuesday/

The main weather feature that we will be dealing with in the short
term is an upper trough currently over New Mexico, which will
transition into a cut-off low as it moves east into the plains
over the next 24 hours. A lead shortwave ahead of the main trough
is currently lifting northeast across the region, and is
responsible for the initial round of convection, which is still
ongoing. Environmental shear is abundant and has led to gusty
winds in some of these showers and storms. A lack of instability,
however, has for the most part precluded the development of
severe storms. We will still need to keep an eye on this
convection as it pushes farther southeast and enters a slightly
less stable airmass.

As the upper low moves east, it will be accompanied by a strong
cold front, which will push southeast through the region this
evening and overnight. A second round of showers and storms can be
expected in advance of the cold front. The latest model guidance
suggests that storms should develop just west of the I-35
corridor around sunset, then push east through the area this
evening. Severe weather probabilities will depend on to what
extent the atmosphere destabilizes between now and then. At this
time, it looks like steepening lapse rates ahead of the upper
level system will create enough instability for a few strong to
severe storms to occur. Widespread severe weather still appears
unlikely due to forecast values of Most Unstable CAPE remaining
on the order of 500 J/KG. An exception may be over eastern
portions of Central Texas, where recent CAMs have indicated around
1000 J/KG developing ahead of the front.

The cold front will sweep through all of the region as
thunderstorms are exiting to our east late evening and overnight.
Strong pressure rises behind the front and the subsequent
pressure gradient will generate windy conditions overnight and
Tuesday. A Wind Advisory may eventually be needed, and will
discuss this potential with neighboring offices this afternoon.
There may also be a third round of convection behind the front as
the core of the upper low moves east through the Plains. These
storms would be confined to the Red River counties. Hail would be
the primary concern with these storms, and an isolated storm or
two may become strong enough to drop quarter sized hail.
Otherwise, much cooler conditions can be expected behind the
front, with tonight's lows dropping into the 40s and 50s, and
tomorrow's highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Through the Weekend/

As the aforementioned low moves off to the east and subsidence
behind the front settles in over Texas, calm winds and clear skies
will force overnight lows on Tuesday to drop into the 40s
areawide. By Wednesday, pleasant fall weather is forecast with
sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected across
North and Central Texas.

Zonal flow moves in overhead for the midweek timeframe ahead of a
second low progged to impact our region late Thursday into
Friday. In response to the low over the Four Corners region on
Thursday, winds veer to the south and temperatures rebound to near
normal. While this late week system doesn't currently appear to be as
strong as the one moving over Texas today, showers and storm
chances return Thursday night and continue through Friday for all
of North and Central Texas as the shortwave approaches and impacts
the region. Models continue to disagree on the specific timing of
the shortwave reaching Texas with the GFS more aggressively
moving the system through by late Friday and the ECMWF letting it
linger across Texas through Saturday. Models also continue to
slightly alter the path of the low, bringing the center further
north than weekend model runs had projected. For now, the official
forecast continues to align more with the GFS solution and has
widespread rainfall and the passage of a cold front through North
and Central Texas on Friday.

By the weekend, near to below normal temperatures and dry, sunny
weather is forecast for North and Central Texas. Fortunately, this
weather trend is expected to persist through Halloween as well.

Schroeder

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/
/18Z TAFs/

An initial band of showers and storms has shifted east of the DFW
Metroplex, but isolated storms will remain possible for a few
more hours as an upper level disturbance lifts northeast through
the area. A second round of convection is expected this evening as
a cold front approaches, generally 01-03Z in the Metroplex and
03-05Z at KACT. Strong west winds behind the front will generate
crosswind issues at DFW late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Winds
will remain strong on Tuesday, but will veer to the northwest
around or shortly after 12Z. Occasional MVFR cigs will continue
through early Tuesday, but will scatter and become VFR by midday
Tuesday. Winds speeds will decrease Tuesday afternoon.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  69  48  74  52 /  60   0   0   0   0
Waco                52  75  44  78  48 /  60   0   0   0   0
Paris               50  65  44  70  45 /  80  10   0   0   0
Denton              47  70  42  74  47 /  70   5   0   0   0
McKinney            48  68  43  73  46 /  80   5   0   0   0
Dallas              52  69  48  74  52 /  70   0   0   0   0
Terrell             51  68  44  73  47 /  80   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           52  70  48  75  50 /  80   0   0   0   0
Temple              51  75  45  78  48 /  70   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  73  44  77  49 /  80   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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