Tornado Warning 72, NWS Fort Worth, TX

276 
WWUS54 KFWD 131238
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXC367-131247-
/O.CAN.KFWD.TO.W.0072.000000T0000Z-221213T1300Z/
Parker TX-
638 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN PARKER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. 
Another tornado warning remains in effect for southern and central 
Parker County until 730 AM.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for north central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3304 9756 3303 9757 3300 9792 3303 9792
      3318 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 236DEG 32KT 3304 9781 

$$

TXC497-131300-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0072.000000T0000Z-221213T1300Z/
Wise TX-
638 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY...
    
At 637 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Poolville, or 11 miles south of Bridgeport, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Paradise around 655 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Keeter, Cottondale and Boonsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now!  Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 9756 3303 9757 3300 9792 3303 9792
      3318 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 236DEG 32KT 3304 9781 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Stalley

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tonight/

A cold front is currently moving across the western CWA with
numerous thunderstorms developing on and ahead of it. Storms have
been low topped, but with plenty of shear to work with, most are
rotating. The ingredient that is somewhat lacking is instability
but thus far a few storms have managed to reach severe criteria.
Therefore, we will keep the current Tornado Watch in place through
11 AM.

The front should reach the I-35 corridor, north of I-20 between 7
and 8 AM with a steady eastward progression through the morning.
Once the front moves though, storms will end and clouds will
begin to clear. Therefore, most of the forecast area will see the
sun this afternoon with temperatures staying in the 60s.
Temperatures tonight will be much cooler than the past few days
with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the northwest to around 50
in the southeast zones.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022/
/Wednesday Onward/

Weather Summary: The long term period will feature well below
normal temperatures across North and Central Texas. The rest of
the work week will be rain-free, but low rain chances return to
the forecast this weekend and early next week.

Wednesday will feel more like mid December as the upper low
continues to translate toward the Great Lakes and a cooler and
drier airmass filters in. It will also likely be the warmest day
through the weekend with highs in the 50s and low 60s. The
passage of another cold front on Thursday will bring a reinforcing
shot of cold air, resulting in highs in the upper 40s across
North Texas and mid 50s across Central Texas through the weekend. The
combination of clear skies and light winds each night will promote
efficient radiational cooling and allow temperatures to fall into
the upper 20s across the Big County and 30s elsewhere.

The upper low is expected to stall over the Great Lakes region
through the first half of the weekend before progressing towards
the northeast, keeping North and Central Texas beneath persistent
northwest flow and generally precip-free. However, there are some
indications low rain chances may return across portions of
Central Texas on Saturday as a surface low develops along the Texas
Coast. The highest PoPs will likely be confined south and east of
the region on Saturday, but PoPs should increase Sunday night
into Monday as a shortwave approaches from the west/southwest.
There is still uncertainty among guidance on the evolution and
timing of these two features, which could potentially result in a
brief period of wintry precipitation, so have opted to stick
closely to the NBM on PoPs and temperatures and keep the mention
of wintry precip out of the forecast until there is better
agreement.

Garcia

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern will be the thunderstorms
that are currently approaching the TAF sites from the west along
and ahead of a cold front. We anticipate storms to reach the
Metroplex TAF sites by 13Z and exit to the east between 15 and
16Z. Waco will see storms in the 14 to 16Z time frame. Once the
cold front moves through, west winds will bring drier air into the
region with MVFR ceilings lifting and scattering out by midday.
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon and
tonight with increasing mid and high clouds associated with the
approach of a shortwave from the west.

A strong and gusty south wind to start the TAF cycle will turn to
the west behind the front and remain westerly through the
afternoon. Wind speeds will steadily decrease through the
afternoon, so any crosswind issues should be brief. The wind will
likely become a bit more southwesterly this evening before
shifting to the northwest by midday Wednesday.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  47  58  37  51 / 100   5   0   0   0
Waco                72  46  61  34  55 / 100  10   5   0   0
Paris               65  45  56  35  48 / 100   5  10   0   0
Denton              68  42  56  32  50 / 100   0   0   0   0
McKinney            67  45  56  34  49 / 100   5   0   0   0
Dallas              69  49  57  38  51 / 100   5   0   0   0
Terrell             69  47  59  36  51 / 100   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           72  50  61  39  55 / 100  10  10   0   0
Temple              73  47  61  35  57 /  80  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  42  56  32  50 /  60   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
559 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of an eastward
moving cold front today. Some of these storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, some hail and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible across most of North and
Central Texas today.