Tornado Warning 34, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
233 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 147 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/
/Through Tomorrow Evening/

An active weather pattern is expected through the short term
period across North and Central Texas. The 12Z FWD sounding
revealed a stout cap in place this morning, but the 18Z FWD
sounding revealed the cap has weakened significantly with only a
weak cap in place, which is to be expected as the arrival of the
anticipated shortwave approaches from the southwest. Persistent
southerly flow aided in a surge of rich Gulf moisture, evident by
dew point observations in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees across
the region. Meanwhile, a sharp dew point gradient is observed well
to the west of our region, with dew points dropping into the 20s
and 30s along and west of a Vernon to Abilene to San Angelo line.
The latest radar imagery reveals broad area of light rain showers
and isolated embedded thunderstorms continue to move northeast
early this afternoon.

Our area of focus for this afternoon and evening's severe
thunderstorm potential will begin across our far western counties
as the dryline approaches from the west. As has been discussed the
past few days, the environment ahead of this boundary remains
favorable for severe thunderstorms with MLCAPE values upwards of
1500-2000 J/kg and mid level lapse rates ranging from 7-9 C/km.
The 18Z FWD sounding revealed about 20 knots of deep layer shear
at this time, but these values should increase to 40-50 knots
over the next 2-4 hours and support severe thunderstorms,
including supercells. At the time of this writing, discrete
convection has developed just along the dryline in Runnels County
and additional discrete development is expected along this
boundary as the dryline moves to the east this afternoon. This
area is also where SPC Mesoanalysis places the higher deep layer
shear values at this time. With the bulk layer shear vectors
oriented nearly orthogonal to the boundary, any initial discrete
development across the Big Country should move to the east toward
the I-35 corridor later this evening before congealing into a
cluster or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms. The
main threats are very large hail and damaging wind gusts,
although a low potential for tornadoes cannot be ruled out. This
activity should exit to the east of the region by 10-11 PM.

Additional precipitation may develop ahead of a cold front after
1-2 AM tonight, mainly along/south of the I-20 corridor and move
off toward the southeast. There is still uncertainty on how this
will evolve following this evening's convection, so we'll have to
keep an eye on trends over the next several hours. There may be
lingering showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front across
East and Central Texas tomorrow morning, but should clear by the
late morning hours. Behind the front, winds will shift to the west
and eventually northwest around 15-20 mph and higher gusts. Cloud
cover will also clear with the arrival of drier air in wake of
the front. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across North
Texas, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Across Central
Texas, highs should warm into the upper 80s. Dew points are
expected to drop into the teens across the Big Country, and in
combination with the breezy northwest winds, will result in near
critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Onward/

Following Wednesday's cold front, much drier and cooler air will
settle into North and Central Texas as a broad surface high
overspreads the Central and Southern Plains. This should lead to
fair weather on Thursday with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Return
flow will ensue late in the day, and Gulf moisture will make a quick
return by early Friday morning. This will recharge the warm buoyant
sector as the dryline redevelops to our west. At this time, it
appears there will be insufficient support for activity on the
dryline late Friday afternoon in the absence of any upper-level
ascent to weaken what should be a strong capping inversion in
place. Instead, convective chances would likely hold off until
later Friday night and early Saturday as a trailing cold front
moves into North Texas. Shear vector orientation to the frontal
boundary as well shear magnitudes will be supportive of a
convective cluster or perhaps one or more MCS segments, with
convection having a tendency to become undercut by the southward
moving front over time. However, a marginal severe storm threat
still looks plausible given the thermodynamic profiles. While most
of the stronger convection should be during the overnight hours,
lingering precipitation more stratiform in nature could continue
into the day Saturday if low-level flow is not sufficiently
interrupted by a larger MCS.

Modest rain chances may continue on Sunday and Monday as additional
fast-moving disturbances ripple through progressive zonal flow
aloft. Another front may arrive early next week, resulting in a
couple of inactive days following its arrival. However, the active
spring pattern will not take long to recover the environment for
additional convective chances towards the middle of next week.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 147 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/
/18Z TAFs/

Most of the TAF sites this afternoon are observing VFR ceilings at
this time, although very intermittent bouts of MVFR ceilings may
be observed over the next hour or so. The main aviation concern is
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that develop
along the dryline, which is currently located along a Vernon to
Abilene to San Angelo line. Isolated convection has already
developed at this time and additional activity is expected over
the next few hours. Thunderstorms may approach the terminals as
early as 22Z, but are more likely within a 23-01Z time frame.

Convection should end by late this evening and there will be a
lull in activity prior to the arrival of a cold front. There is
still some uncertainty on whether there will be an increase in
convection once again after 7-8Z, so at this time I opted to keep
precipitation out of the TAF until confidence increases. There is
a potential for a surge of MVFR ceilings ahead of the front, but a
clearing is expected by Wednesday morning as drier air filters in.
Otherwise, breezy southerly winds will persist ahead of the front
with gusts near 30 knots. Behind the front, breezy westerly to
northwesterly winds will prevail through the end of the forecast
period.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  83  49  80  58 /  60  20   0   0   5
Waco                67  89  48  81  57 /  40  40   0   0   5
Paris               65  81  44  74  51 /  60  60   0   0  10
Denton              62  82  42  78  54 /  50  10   0   0   5
McKinney            65  82  44  76  54 /  60  30   0   0   5
Dallas              68  83  50  78  58 /  60  30   0   0   5
Terrell             65  83  47  77  55 /  50  40   0   0   5
Corsicana           67  86  49  79  56 /  50  50   0   0   5
Temple              67  89  48  83  57 /  30  30   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       63  83  43  82  56 /  30   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
215 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
215 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms are possible across nearly all of North and Central
Texas this evening and tonight with a potential for severe storms.
The primary hazards are large hail and damaging winds, but a few
tornadoes are also possible.

There is an elevated fire threat this afternoon west of US-281 where
dry, very warm and breezy weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday morning, especially south of
I-20 and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging
winds and hail the most likely hazards.

The fire threat will become elevated west of I-35 Wednesday afternoon
when it becomes windy and dry behind a weak cold front.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday though Monday
across much of North and Central Texas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North and Central Texas
this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
439 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             13 SSE EVANT            31.29N 98.08W
04/12/2022  E1.50 INCH       LAMPASAS           TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF NEAR PING PONG BALL
            SIZE HAIL IN IZORO NEAR HWY 1690.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             9 NW HAMILTON           31.80N 98.23W
04/12/2022  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 1 INCH HAIL OFF HWY 36.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             12 W HAMILTON           31.67N 98.33W
04/12/2022  E1.50 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            PICTURE OF HAIL FROM POTTSVILLE. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
507 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             4 NE GRANBURY           32.49N 97.75W
04/12/2022  E0.75 INCH       HOOD               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&