Tornado Warning 2, NWS Fort Worth, TX

320 
WWUS54 KFWD 212019
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXC237-363-429-503-212030-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220321T2030Z/
Young TX-Jack TX-Stephens TX-Palo Pinto TX-
319 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG...SOUTHWESTERN JACK...NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND
NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES...
    
At 318 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Possum Kingdom State Park, or 14 miles south of
Graham, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bryson around 340 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now!  Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3275 9854 3292 9868 3327 9855 3308 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 210DEG 42KT 3289 9851 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Gordon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/
/Today and Tonight/

Not much has changed regarding today's severe weather potential.
The radar scope has blossomed across much of the area, and this
trend will continue over the next couple of hours. The activity
across North Texas currently resides in a region of 800-1200 J/kg
MUCAPE, so a severe hail threat will exist with any robust
updrafts that are able to develop. Meanwhile, strong southerly
flow near the surface continues to usher rich moisture into North
and Central Texas. Dew points in the mid 60s have begun to surge
into Central Texas and will continue to make their way northward
this afternoon. As this occurs, convection will become
increasingly surface-based from south to north, increasing the
threat of severe weather.

Lift will be maximized late this afternoon as a dryline nears the
CWA. This should result in additional development likely somewhere
near the I-35 corridor. Discrete supercells are expected to be
the primary storm mode with this round of convection. This will
open the door to all modes of severe weather, including very large
hail, tornadoes (some strong), and damaging winds. Though severe
weather is possible across most of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, the greatest chances for severe storms
still appear to be across our southeast where severe weather
ingredients will align the most optimally. The Storm Prediction
Center has upgraded this region to a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for
severe weather this afternoon and evening.

This activity is expected to move northeast through this evening,
shifting the severe weather threat to eastern portions of North
and Central Texas. Additionally, this appears to be the most
likely area to have a heavy rain/flooding potential, as some
training of showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Though
most of the activity should exit to the east near 9-10 pm, additional
development may be possible across the Brazos Valley through the
remainder of the overnight period. If you're in this area, be
sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings before heading to
bed tonight, as a continued threat for severe storms will exist
into the overnight hours.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Morning onward/

Tuesday morning through Tuesday night:

As the cold front continues to move toward the E/SE, so will our
chances for rain. Some lingering showers and storms are possible in
our eastern and southeastern counties through the morning hours on
Tuesday, but should move completely out of the eastern CWA borders
by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Decided to trend a bit
lower with our northwest and western tier of counties' high
temperatures for Tuesday, as dense cloud cover will continue to
blanket North Texas through the afternoon hours.

A stout pressure gradient will allow for windy conditions to occur
Tuesday morning and afternoon. As of this issuance, we are just
below Wind Advisory criteria, but that will be something to keep
in mind during future short term forecast updates. Due to the
strong gradient, trended sustained winds for Tuesday morning and
afternoon slightly higher. Expect sustained speeds around 15-25
mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph, to make for a windy day.

Wednesday through the rest of the period:

The general pattern over the rest of this week features a longwave
trough traversing over a vast majority of the CONUS through this
week. This will allow for cooler temperatures to stick around. After
the passage of the upper-level trough at the end of the week, the
state of Texas will start to be under the influence of a upper-level
ridge, which will result in a warming trend as we go into the
weekend.

A diffuse cold front will move in during late week, though the
only noticeable difference will be a wind shift as a lackluster
moisture column will keep North and Central Texas dry with this
FROPA. Southerly low-level flow will return during the weekend,
and coupled with continued warm air advection off of a low-level
high situated in the Gulf of Mexico, will bring in a surge of
increased moisture to North and Central Texas. Thanks to that,
we'll start to see a warm up at the end of the week. Sunday and
Monday will observe windy conditions, as the pressure gradient
tightens.

Warm temperatures, breezy to windy conditions(sustained 15-25 mph
with gusts upwards of 30 mph), and lower relative humidities in
the mid-teens to 30% will allow elevated fire weather conditions
to return for areas generally west of I-35 on Wednesday-Thursday,
and Saturday-Monday. Currently more concerned with Wednesday and
Sunday/Monday, since the wind speeds are higher and the elevated
fire concerns are more widespread in coverage than compared to
Thursday and Saturday. Continue to take caution with any outdoor
activities that could produce grass fire starts.

Another front moves through just outside of the long term period,
bringing a chance for precipitation chances. However, since it is
outside of the bounds of this forecast and there is uncertainty on
when and where precipitation will occur, it will not be seen in this
long term update. This is still something to keep in mind as we
continue into the early spring season, and details will become more
refined as guidance and subsequent forecast issuances bring it into
view.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/
/18Z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon. Any robust storm that is able to develop will pose a
severe hail threat for the next couple of hours.

Meanwhile, a steady fetch of Gulf moisture continues to surge
northward in strong low-level southerly flow and will result in
continued IFR ceilings and gusty winds at all terminals. This
surge of moisture will also result in an increasing threat for
severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening, with
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

Showers and thunderstorms should exit east of all terminals by 03Z
this evening; however, they will continue to impact any air
traffic across eastern portions of North and Central Texas.
Thankfully, MVFR ceilings should quickly improve behind the
exiting convection, with VFR expected through the end of the
period. A cold front is expected to arrive Tuesday morning, with a
northwesterly wind shift expected with the front. Winds will
become windy/gusty behind the front with sustained winds near 20
to 25 knots and gusts upward of 30 to 35 knots possible through
Tuesday afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  58  44  63  40 /  90   5   5   0   0
Waco                53  62  43  65  38 /  80   5   0   0   0
Paris               57  63  42  57  37 / 100  30   5   5   0
Denton              45  55  41  63  33 /  80  10   5   0   0
McKinney            51  58  42  61  35 / 100   5   5   0   0
Dallas              51  59  43  62  40 /  90   5   5   0   0
Terrell             54  61  42  62  36 / 100  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           55  63  42  64  38 / 100   5   0   0   0
Temple              51  63  44  67  37 /  80   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       44  55  39  63  35 /  60   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across much of
North and Central Texas. Large hail, damaging winds, and several
tornadoes will be possible. A few tornadoes may be strong.

Heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and tonight. Minor
flooding may occur across East Texas.

In addition to the severe weather threat, strong southeasterly non-
thunderstorm winds gusting to 45 mph will be possible along and east
of I-35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely this afternoon throughout North and
Central Texas.