Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
133 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1148 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022/
/This afternoon through Saturday/

Highlights:

* Storms developing around 18Z
* Storm organization near or just west of the I-35/I-35W corridor
* Discrete storms possible ahead of the main line
* Damaging winds and hail primary threats with tornadoes
  possible, especially east of I-35/I-35W
* Fast moving storms ending from west to east during the afternoon
  and evening
* Cooler and drier tonight/Saturday

Strong low level warm air advection is ongoing late this morning
ahead of a deep low pressure system approaching rapidly from the
west. A strong cap of warm air remains in place just above 850 mb
per the 12Z and 15Z FWD sounding. Plenty of mid level instability
and moisture will result in elevated showers and a few
thunderstorms until the cap can break. Latest high res guidance
suggest the cap will break between 18Z and 19Z with storms
developing just ahead of a strong cold front, likely just west of
the I-35/I-35W corridor. Storms will become more organized along
the cold front as it moves steadily east through the afternoon
with the threat for more discrete storms also shifting east ahead
of the front. We still anticipate all modes of severe weather
possible with damaging wind and hail being the primary threats.
Shear profiles will also support some tornadoes, especially
across the eastern zones. The only good news is that the front
will be fast moving so storms will end quickly from west to east
this evening.

The upper low will lift quickly northeast tonight while much
cooler and drier air moves in from the north. Lows tonight will
drop into the upper 30s across the northeast with mainly 40s
elsewhere. A breezy northwest wind will make it feel even cooler.
Wind speeds will decrease Saturday once surface high pressure
builds over the Southern Plains. Plenty of sun will allow
temperatures to warm into the 60s, except for lower 70s in the
west.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
There has not been much change in the details of the long term
forecast. The cold front, currently moving across Texas this
afternoon (Friday), will retreat as a warm front by Sunday night.
This will result in the quick return of mild temperatures and
higher humidity. Additionally, we still expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop Sunday night into Monday across the
region. Otherwise, highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected
through the week until a strong cold front arrives late Thursday
into Friday.

Garcia

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night and Beyond/

The upper level pattern will be somewhat progressive late weekend
through next week, as the trough responsible for today's
convection heads for the North Atlantic and an upper low begins to
deepen over the West Coast. Return flow will already be in place
at the start of the period as a lee-side trough strengthens ahead
of the West Coast low. This evening's cold front will eventually
return north as a warm front Sunday night into Monday, bringing a
surge of Gulf moisture with it. Isentropic lift near and north of
the front will generate scattered showers and perhaps a few
elevated storms after midnight Sunday night through the day on
Monday, making for a dreary start to the work week.

Precipitation should shut-down Monday night as the warm front
lifts north of the Red River. The upper low will meanwhile
advance east across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, and Four
Corners area on Wednesday, eventually transitioning to an open
trough as it enters the Texas Panhandle on Thursday. Another
active period of convection is expected across the Plains Thursday
and Thursday night as a line of thunderstorms develops ahead of
the advancing upper trough, with activity being focused along an
attendant Pacific front. In contrast to today's expected weather
system, however, the strongest forcing for ascent will remain
north of the region, and North and Central Texas will be on the
southern edge of this convection. There could be a severe storm
or two near the Red River, but at this time severe weather appears
unlikely for the majority of the region.

Pops will remain fairly low at this time due to the meager lift
and modest convective parameters expected with the system. The
front, the upper trough, and what will likely be a band of
scattered showers and isolated storms should clear the area
sometime Thursday night. Clearing skies and subsidence in the wake
of the departing system should bring more nice weather in time
for next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1148 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022/
/18Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern today will be timing
thunderstorms. Some warm air advection showers are ongoing across
the Metroplex TAF sites and these should continue until about the
start of the TAF valid time. It does appear that 18Z until 23Z
will be the best window for all TAF sites to have thunderstorms
with storms exiting quickly to the east after 23Z to 00Z. MVFR
ceilings and visibility will also linger through the afternoon
until the front moves through, then ceilings will lift and scatter
this evening/overnight. VFR is expected Saturday with a mostly
clear sky.

A south to southeast wind in the 12 to 15 knot range along with
some gusts around 25 knots will turn to the northwest around 00Z,
remaining northwest overnight. Wind speeds will decrease
overnight/Saturday morning while becoming more westerly. Surface
high pressure will move quickly east of the region on Saturday,
allowing southerly winds to return.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  67  54  79  63 /  10   0   0   0  10
Waco                44  71  50  83  64 /  10   0   0   0  20
Paris               43  62  47  73  60 /  60   0   0   0  10
Denton              40  66  50  79  59 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            41  65  49  77  60 /  20   0   0   0  10
Dallas              46  66  54  78  64 /  20   0   0   0  10
Terrell             45  66  50  78  63 /  50   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           47  69  52  80  66 /  40   0   0   0  20
Temple              44  71  49  82  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       41  72  50  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
123 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             3 WNW KNOLLWOOD         33.71N 96.67W
11/04/2022  M1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL.

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HAIL             2 WNW DENISON           33.77N 96.60W
11/04/2022  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF QUARTER INCH HAIL.

&&

HLR