Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
458 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near and just west
of the I-35 corridor along at the leading edge of a well defined
MCV. Limited instability and only marginal mid level lapse rates
should keep storm coverage scattered and generally below severe
limits. The MCV will eventually exit the region later tonight and
storms will end from west to east. However, additional storms may
move into the western zones overnight/Saturday morning.

The overall short term portion of the forecast is in good shape
(see discussion below). The only changes necessary at this time
will be some cloud cover and temperature adjustments based on
current trends.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

Another MCV from convection the previous night and early morning
across West TX continues to move east across areas W of I-35 early
this afternoon and should continue a slow eastward motion through
tonight into E TX/LA. Plenty of convective, multi-level cloud
debris has held temperatures into the 70s across the northwest
half of the CWA, while further southeast we expect highs well into
the 80s as they experience more sunshine/insolation. Lift
associated with the MCV during peak heating through early evening
should result in scattered showers and isolated tstorms, as
pockets of instability evolve later today (similar to a
landfalling, warm core tropical system in a sense). Though a
brief, marginal severe storm can't be completely ruled out, weak
flow through the lower 3 km of the atmosphere and spotty, limited
instability should keep the majority of the activity in the
general, to briefly strong category with gusty winds, lightning,
brief heavy rainfall (thanks to pockets of PWATS > 1.5"), and
possibly some pea size hail with the most robust updrafts.

As the MCV progresses into E TX and the Ark-La-Tex after sunset
this evening, low level stabilization and increasing subsidence
will likely result in a mostly uneventful, humid, and mild night.
Another shortwave in the progressive WNW flow aloft will
generated scattered to numerous tstorms across the Permian Basin
up the TX/OK Panhandles by this evening. These storms will
eventually evolve into a storm complex/cluster, or MCS later
tonight as it moves southeast along the higher CAPE gradient from
West-Central/NW Texas and toward the TX Hill Country, Central, and
S-Central TX by sunrise Saturday. Exact formation and track of
this eventual MCS, with another likely MCV somewhere across TX
Saturday morning remains uncertain, so will maintain scattered
chances across across the Big Country and Colorado River Valley,
with a slow expansion of low rain chances eastward through the day
once again. So basically rinse and repeat on the rain and storm
chances for a third day in a row. Confidence is not high on timing
and placement, as models, including CAMs have all kinds of
varying solutions on evolution of showers and storm late tonight
and Saturday. Increasing southeast winds 10 to 20 mph and
increasing low level warm advection may allow temperatures to be
about a category warmer (5-7 degrees) than today, despite the
expected cloud cover around once again.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 249 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Active northwest flow will continue for a day or two as yet
another nocturnal MCS makes a run for North and Central Texas
Saturday night into Sunday morning. We expect this system to
mostly affect the north and northeastern parts of the forecast
area as mid-level ridging starts to build in from the southwest.
That ridging will take hold of our pattern early next week and
squash precip chances for a few days.

Expect a typical summer pattern to then dominate the region for
most of next week with temperatures hovering 5-10 degrees above
normal. This will be most noticeable in the overnight lows as
little to no relief from the warmth is expected. Morning lows
next week will be in the mid 70s for most but some in DFW and
across Western North Texas will hover in the upper 70s to near
80. Afternoon heat index values are forecast to be a few degrees
above the air temperature with most topping out in the triple
digits just about every day next week.

A slight weakness in the ridge is possible late in the week that
could allow for shortwaves and their associated convection (or
even a weak front) to move into the northern parts of the area
from about Thursday onward. Confidence of these systems is low,
so we have capped PoPs at 20% for all of the late-week periods.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The primary aviation concern will be lingering thunderstorms at
the start the TAF cycle tonight and a lower chance of storms
Saturday. The MCV left over from morning convection continues to
rotate across the I-35 corridor. Thunderstorms will temporarily
impact all TAF sites but should exit to the east between 00Z and
02Z. After that, only lingering mid and high clouds are expected
through the night. Additional thunderstorms associated with
another disturbance will approach from the west Saturday morning
but it is likely that storms will dissipate before reaching any
of the terminals. Therefore, will leave the mention of storms on
Saturday out of this TAF package. Otherwise, VFR Saturday with
scattered to broken clouds generally above 6000 ft.

A northeast to east wind will prevail tonight with a gradual
shift to the southeast Saturday with a developing surface low
across the Central High Plains. Wind speeds will be at or below 10
knots except for gusty and erratic wind in and near thunderstorms.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  87  71  94  75 /  30  20  20   5   0
Waco                70  90  72  97  75 /  20  20  20   5   0
Paris               64  83  66  88  72 /  10  20  30  20   0
Denton              66  86  69  93  74 /  30  30  30   5   0
McKinney            66  85  69  91  74 /  20  20  30   5   0
Dallas              70  88  72  93  76 /  30  20  20   5   0
Terrell             67  86  70  92  74 /  20  20  20  10   0
Corsicana           69  88  72  94  74 /  30  20  10   5   0
Temple              70  91  71  98  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  88  68  97  74 /  20  30  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
514 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
514 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. Severe
weather is not expected but locally heavy rainfall, small hail and
gusty outflow winds may accompany a few of the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Low thunderstorm chances return mid week with most storms remaining
along the Red River. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
415 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

TXZ102-032145-
Wise TX-
415 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Wise
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boonsville, or 8 miles southwest of Bridgeport, moving northeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bridgeport and Chico around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Runaway Bay and Lake
Bridgeport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Lake Bridgeport, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 9779 3317 9770 3305 9786 3306 9792
      3324 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 207DEG 10KT 3313 9786

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

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